Champions League group stage ashes: The expected and unexpected

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A look at what the group stage left; which groups kept the status quo in check and which ones didn’t.

The UEFA Champions League group stage came to a close last Wednesday, and what a fast one it was. Having begun the first full week of September, we had CL galore as the clubs played their 6 matches over a 9 week span due to the upcoming World Cup, when this stage usually takes a full extra month to play out.

The draw for the Round of 16 took place on Monday, meaning the stage and matchups are set for the knockout phase, which begins on February 14th. But the group stage didn’t leave us without some unexpected results, as some favorites failed to live up to the expectations and some underdogs rose to the occasion. If you’re wondering which ones those were, we’ve got it all covered by group.

THE EXPECTED

GROUP A

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The fact Napoli and Liverpool made it out of this group is no surprise at all. I even predicted in an earlier article that Ajax (being the Netherlands’ top club) would fall short, as the Italians were just too strong a team. Scottish club Rangers were predictably nowhere near. If there’s something I didn’t expect however, it was Napoli winning the group. Sure, they surpassed Liverpool on mere goal difference, as they finished tied with 15 points, but I expected Liverpool to run away with this one. Despite this small surprise, the group still played out very much as expected.

Key moment: Napoli proved even stronger than I predicted and showed it when they defeated Liverpool in the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium with a 4-1 pouncing in their opening CL match. Goes to show how much every game matters. That result proved the difference in the end, as it not only gave the Napolitanos the 3 points, but it gave them the goal difference they needed to win the group.

GROUP D

The fact Tottenham won the group puts it in the expected category. Antonio Conte at the helm will not allow for less. And while we knew the rest of the teams were pretty evenly matched, however, I didn’t think they’d all be in it till the very end. This group was the closest of all, but the fact Eintracht Frankfurt are as high up as they are in the Bundesliga this year, it makes for this result an expected one in the end, even though I had Marseille as favorites for 2nd.

Key moment: This group’s key moment was literally the second half of both matches this past Wednesday. Heading into the halftime break of their games, both Sporting CP and Marseille held 1-0 leads, which momentarily had them both moving on. Eintracht Frankfurt and Tottenham both got clutch goals in the second half to grab respective 2-1 victories on the road and each clinch a spot in the next round. Had the halftime results held up, this group would’ve been in the unexpected column.

GROUP E

Chelsea and Milan. Those were the two favorites, in that order. Chelsea losing to Dinamo Zagreb in the opening match made it closer than what it should’ve been, but the arrival of Graham Potter quickly corrected that. Milan’s strong performances in Serie A over the past couple years made them an easy pick for 2nd, while Red Bull and Dinamo just don’t have the pieces this year to keep up with these elite clubs.

Key moment: Matchday 4. Milan losing 0-2 to Chelsea at home. They came into that match tied atop the group, and despite Chelsea having dominated them 3-0 at Stamford Bridge the week before, this was Pioli and company’s chance to get even and reclaim the group with two games left. They failed, proving why Chelsea were favorites to win this group from the start. In the end, Chelsea outscored them 5-0 in their head-to-head matchups. Enough said.

GROUP F

There were only two things that didn’t go the way I pictured for this group: 1) Real Madrid lost a match. I expected them to win 5 and draw 1, but even with their loss, they still won the group; 2) Celtic were significantly worse than I expected. I thought 3rd place would be very close between Celtic and Shakhtar. Turns out the Scottish club have a lot more to work on than I thought. Other than that, the group finished just as I expected, with Real Madrid first and RB Leipzig second.

Key moment: RB Leipzig’s opening CL match 1-4 loss at home to Shakhtar. It turned out to be the Ukrainian side’s only victory of the tournament and is what ultimately opened up the lane for Real Madrid to win the group as was originally predicted, since the Germans never recovered enough to get ahead of Real. The Spanish club are going for a breathtaking 6th orejona in 10 years.

GROUP G

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Manchester City. That’s all you really have to say, isn’t it? They were as dominant as expected, didn’t lose a single match, and pressed on the gas when they needed to as Guardiola and company comfortably cruised to 1st place in the group. I figured it would be a dogfight between Borussia and Sevilla for 2nd, but I was wrong, as the Germans ran away with the honors early on.

Key moment: Sevilla’s 1-4 loss at home to Borussia Dortmund in Matchday 3. That result put them 5 points apart with just half of the matches left, and Sevilla never got close again. I expected Sevilla to be better, considering they were 4th in La Liga last year, but the fact they’re in the relegation zone this year explains a lot of why this group went the way it did.

THE UNEXPECTED

GROUP B

This group was by far the biggest surprise. It was completely turned upside down compared to my original take. First off, there’s no way Atlético de Madrid could’ve missed making it out of this group. Not THIS one. No knock on the other teams, but you can’t have the quality and experience Simeone’s squad have and not make it. Well, not only did they miss the knockout phase, but they even missed the Europa League spot. Their European competition is over this season.

Bayer Leverkusen showed some great things in the Bundesliga last year, finishing 3rd, so I expected them to finish 2nd, actually. Didn’t know what to expect from FC Porto, as they can look good at times, but their recent track record in the CL didn’t convince me a whole lot. And Club Brugge I expected to fight for 3rd with Porto at best. So much for this reasoning, huh?

Key moment: Matchday 4. Both matches that day decided the ultimate fate of the group, as both road teams got massive results. Club Brugge went to Madrid and escaped with a scoreless draw. Meanwhile, Porto traveled to Germany and pounced on Bayer Leverkusen 3-0. Those results surprisingly put the group out of reach with two matches still to go.

GROUP C

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Bayern Munich did more than I expected, although their ultimate placing didn’t change. They surely could’ve drawn one and possibly even lost another. Despite that, I still expected them to win the group. My surprise, however, came with Inter Milan moving on with them. With Xavi at the helm and the addition of superstar Robert Lewandowski (who scored 5 goals in the stage), I was sure Barca had what it took to overcome Inter for runner up. With the Catalanes missing the knockout phase last year and considering Inter aren’t even in Europa League spots in Serie A currently, there was no way the blaugranas missed out this year in my mind. I was wrong. Barca are once again headed to the Europa League.

Key moment: Matchday 4; Barca and Inter’s 3-3 draw at Camp Nou. After losing to Inter the week prior at the Giuseppe Meazza, Barcelona trailed Inter 7-4 in points. With the rematch set in Barcelona, Xavi’s squad had taken a 1-0 lead into the half. However, they allowed Inter to turn it around and barely saved face thanks to Lewandowski’s two clutch scores, tying it twice at the end. Had they won, they would’ve evened up in points and started all over again with two matches left. That result however, allowed the Italian club to stay in front of Barca and never look back.

GROUP H

This group has to be classified as a surprise as well. Now, I have to mention that in an earlier article, I did choose Juve as one of the bigs that wouldn’t make it out of the group stage. PSG are just so darn good offensively and so tough to keep in check, while Benfica have proven how gritty they are and somehow always find a way to get through to the knockout phase. They were also involved in Barca not making it past this stage last year, so the Portuguese side know what they’re doing when it comes to dealing with elite clubs. With that being said, never did I think they were capable of equalling, let alone winning a group with Messi, Neymar, and those bad boys.

Despite being candidates to fail in their group, whenever a club like Juve do, it’s always a surprise. I can tell you I didn’t see them going 1W, 0D, 5L, and much less losing a match to Maccabi Haifa. But as they rebuild and retool that squad, that’s just where they are this day in age. They’ll try their luck in the Europa League.

Key moment: Benfica’s 6-1 road victory over Maccabi Haifa in the closing match of the group stage. Those 6 away goals evened Benfica and PSG’s goals scored and goals allowed to the number, and since they tied both of their head-to-head matches 1-1, that forced the next tiebreaker which is total away goals scored. Benfica won that thanks to all those scores in Israel, which is why they’re moving on as group winners.