Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Ronald Acuña Jr. stared down the 40/40 Club and blew it out of the water
When Jose Canseco, ahead of the 1988 MLB season, predicted that he would post the first 40 home run and 40 stolen base season in league history, it was one of the boldest predictions ever made.
Not just because the Oakland A’s slugger had managed just 15 stolen bases over his first two seasons.
But because it had never been done before.
Prior to Canseco, a handful of players had come close. Willie Mays came close in both 1956 and 1957, hitting 36 home runs and stealing 40 bases in 1956, and posting 35 home runs and 38 stolen bases the following year. Hank Aaron had 44 HRs and 31 steals during the 1963 season.
The player who came closest ahead of Canseco? Bobby Bonds. In five different seasons Bonds joined the 30/30 club, coming closest in 1973 when he stole 43 bases and hit 39 home runs for the San Francisco Giants.
Why was 40/40 on Canseco’s mind ahead of 1988? Probably because four players joined the 30/30 Club the prior season. During 1987, Joe Carter (32 home runs, 31 stolen bases), Howard Johnson (36 home runs, 32 stolen bases), Darryl Strawberry (39 home runs, 36 stolen bases), and Eric Davis (37 home runs, 53 stolen bases) all joined the 30/30 Club.
It was the first year in MLB history that multiple players accomplished that feat.
But then came 1988, when Canseco lived up to his prediction and became the founding member of the 40/40 Club. The A’s slugger hit 42 home runs and swiped 40 bases, doing something that baseball had never seen before. It captured the imagination of a nation, including an 11-year-old boy who dreamed of one day playing shortstop for the Boston Red Sox.
That didn’t stop me from booing Canseco from the bleachers during Game 1 of the ALCS alongside my grandfather, but that is a story for another time.
Following Canseco, three other players joined him in the 40/40 Club. First was Barry Bonds in 1996, finishing what his father started years before. Bonds hit 42 home runs and stole 40 bases, matching Canseco’s numbers from almost a decade earlier.
Alex Rodriguez was next, with 42 home runs and 46 stolen bases in 1998. Alfonso Soriano followed him, with a 46/41 season in 2006.
More players came close to joining that club, with Matt Kemp coming closest in 2011 when he hit 39 home runs and stole 40 bases. Ronald Acuña Jr. himself came close in 2019, when he hit 41 home runs and swiped 37 bags.
Then came 2023.
The year where Acuña not only joined the 40/40 Club, but became the founding member of the 40/50 Club.
And the 40/60 Club.
And on Wednesday night, the founding member of the 40/70 Club:
Something we have never seen before, much like Canseco all those years ago.
Something that captured the imagination of a now 46-year-old sportswriter, along with the rest of the nation.
Taken alone, Acuña’s 40 home runs and 70 stolen bases would be the stuff of legend. The kind of numbers you would hope to post in MLB The Show having adjusted the sliders to your liking. But when you step back and look at Acuña’s entire season, what he means to the Braves and all he has accomplished this year comes into focus.
Acuña, as of today, has posted a .335/.414/.598 slash line. He is third in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with a mark of 8.1, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, and second in WAR for position players behind Betts. His Offensive WAR of 8.2 leads all players, and his On-Base Percentage leads the majors. Acuña is second in batting average and third in OPS — leading the National League in both categories — and is second in the NL in slugging percentage, behind teammate Matt Olson.
With four games left in the season, Acuña leads the majors in hits, total bases, stolen bases, runs scored, runs created, adjusted batting runs, adjusted batting hits, times on base, and win probability added.
Again, these are video game numbers.
Numbers which helped lead the Braves to their sixth-straight NL East title, and numbers which have made him the favorite for NL MVP honors. Some have made the case for Betts, who is putting up some impressive numbers of his own, but when you have the kind of year Acuña is having — and become the founding member of not one, but three different clubs — MVP honors likely (and should) follow.
Now, there will be detractors. There always are. Some will point to rule changes for this season, such as the pitch clock, restrictions on the shift, bigger bases, and restrictions on pitcher disengagements, and say those paved the way not just for Acuña’s season, but for his 70 (and counting) steals. And it is true that stolen base numbers are up, league wide.
According to Baseball Almanac there were 2,487 stolen bases in MLB last season. With a few days left in this season, there have been 3,414 stolen bases. That is a 37 percent jump, a big leap in steals.
During the 2019 season, the last year Acuña played more than 150 games, he stole 37 bases. Having almost doubled that number this year, the new rules do not account for everything he has done this season in the stolen base department.
What we are seeing is the stuff of legend, and the kind of season we will tell our children about.
Until we see the founding of the 40/80 Club.
Which might be Acuña, next season.
