When Max Verstappen can clinch, Logan Sargeant’s future, and the battle for second among Qatar GP storylines

Photo by Dan Istitene – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images

F1 is back this weekend, and here is what to watch for

The last time out, Red Bull secured their second-straight Formula 1 Constructors’ Championship, thanks to Max Verstappen’s victory at the Japanese Grand Prix.

However, that does not mean there is a shortage of storylines when F1 returns to action this week with the Qatar Grand Prix.

Among the items left to be decided? Logan Sargeant’s status for 2024, the ongoing battle for second behind Red Bull between Mercedes and Ferrari, whether Sergio Pérez can hold on in his own battle for second in the Drivers’ Championship, and exactly when Verstappen can clinch a title of his own.

Here are the storylines for this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix.

Who takes second: Mercedes or Ferrari?

With the Constructors’ Championship already decided, the biggest bit of drama left this F1 season comes down to who finishes closest to Red Bull in the standings: Mercedes or Ferrari.

We took a deeper dive into this battle last week, but when you look at the final six races, you could make a case for either team in each of the upcoming events. As the grid heads to Qatar, that is certainly the case. Mercedes could look at the high downforce nature of Lusail International Circuit, and believe that the layout will favor the W14. “These type of circuits – the high downforce circuits – we tend to go well [on],” said George Russell ahead of the Dutch Grand Prix. “Budapest we were fast. [Zandvoort] was probably one of our most competitive circuits along with Brazil [last year].”

However, the layout in Qatar is also similar to Singapore, another high-downforce track.

Where Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz Jr. became the first non-Red Bull driver to win a grand prix this season.

The gap between the two teams is now just 20 points. Mercedes has 305 on the year, and Ferrari has 285. Six races remain, three of which are sprint races.

Including this weekend.

That means there are more than enough points available for Ferrari to close the gap in a hurry.

Can Sergio Pérez grab a second of his own?

While last year was a bit of a dream season for Red Bull, as they saw Verstappen win his second-straight Drivers’ Championship while earning a Constructors’ title of their own, snapping a snapping-year Mercedes streak, one item remained unchecked on their to-do list.

A second-place finish for Sergio Pérez.

The driver was locked in a heated battle with Charles Leclerc of Ferrari for second throughout the season, and the two drivers entered the final race of the campaign tied with 290 points each. That penultimate race, as you may well remember, was the Brazilian Grand Prix which was certainly not without some strife among the Red Bull duo.

For those who may not remember, Verstappen ignored an order from the team to let Pérez pass him late in the race. Verstappen finished in sixth, with Pérez behind him in seventh, and anger boiled over on the radio for both drivers at the finish.

Team Principal Christian Horner intervened, and in the buildup to the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Horner stressed that the team had buried the hatchet. But when Leclerc finished ahead of Pérez at Yas Marina, it was enough to finish second in the standings, leaving Pérez in third.

That is a scenario that Pérez does not want to see repeated.

The Red Bull driver currently has a 33-point lead over Lewis Hamilton for second, but with six races remaining — three of them sprint weekends — there is more than enough time for Hamilton to make up the gap. Especially when you consider how Hamilton finished the year last season, finishing second in three-straight races to help Mercedes put pressure on Ferrari in the Constructors’ Championship.

Pérez can take a big step towards finishing the year behind only Verstappen with a strong performance in Qatar. However, another weekend of struggles like we saw from him in Japan, and the pressure he is under might reach a boiling point.

Can Logan Sargeant meet his targets at Williams?

The only bit of driver business remaining for 2024?

The future of rookie Logan Sargeant at Williams.

The only American driver on the grid is fighting to keep his seat for the 2024 season. Sargeant has shown flashes this year — a shocking move into Q3 at the Dutch Grand Prix is certainly a highlight — but far too often we have seen from Sargeant what happened in that Q3 at Zandvoort. Sargeant crashed out of Q3 and ended up starting the race tenth.

Things were even worse at the Japanese Grand Prix. Sargeant endured a hard crash at the start of qualifying, which not only knocked him out of Q1 but forced him to start from pit lane — and take a ten-second penalty — due to the repairs that were needed to get his FW45 ready for the Japanese Grand Prix.

Sargeant did receive a vote of confidence from Williams Team Principal James Vowles last week, who outlined that the driver does have some markers he needs to hit as the season winds down. Can he do enough to save his seat at Williams? A good run this weekend would certainly help his case.

Ultimately, it does seem as if Williams is looking to run it back with Sargeant next year, as Vowles has stressed patience and a long-term approach with the team this entire season. Plus, with the United States Grand Prix on the docket after the Qatar Grand Prix, it might make sense for the team to announce Sargeant would be back for 2024 on American soil.

Still, Sargeant does need to deliver some results. He is the only driver who has been in every race this season yet to secure a point. Sneaking into the top ten at the Qatar Grand Prix — or even getting close — would be massive for his job security.

How does Liam Lawson fare in his finale?

Barring an unforeseen development, Daniel Ricciardo will remain sidelined for the Qatar Grand Prix. After suffering a broken bone in his hand which required surgery during practice at the Dutch Grand Prix, speculation about when he would return has remained an ongoing storyline.

Ricciardo was slated for a simulator session last week to determine his status for the Qatar Grand Prix, but Horner noted that in all likelihood, Liam Lawson would get one more start at AlphaTauri.

Lawson has been rather impressive since sliding into Ricciardo’s seat, with his worst finish a P13 which came in his debut. Lawson finished 11th at both the Japanese Grand Prix and the Italian Grand Prix, and secured his first F1 points with a ninth-place finish at the Singapore Grand Prix.

In fact, his performance in relief of Ricciardo opened the door to the idea that he could be tapped for a full-time seat with AlphaTauri next season, perhaps alongside Ricciardo himself. Ultimately, the team opted for a lineup of Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda next year, with Lawson to serve as a reserve for Red Bull and AlphaTauri, but as Horner noted, his time is coming.

How might he fare in what could be his last race this season?

Does Max clinch Saturday, or Sunday?

Max Verstappen enters the Qatar Grand Prix with a commanding lead in the Drivers’ standings, and the only question is not if he will clinch the title, but when.

Barring an unforeseen collapse this weekend, Verstappen will leave Lusail International Circuit with a big trophy in his hands. Perhaps the biggest question is whether he clinches Saturday in the F1 Sprint race, or Sunday in the Grand Prix itself.

The only viable challenger to his title — mathematically speaking — is Pérez. Verstappen has a 177-point lead over his teammate, with a maximum of 180 points remaining for a single driver over the final six races. For Verstappen to lose out on the title, he would have to finish out of the points in each of the six races, while Pérez would have to sweep the season, and pick up the fastest lap in at least four of the final six races.

Simply put, he really just needs three points over the rest of the season to clinch.

As you can see, the title is basically Verstappen’s.

He can become the first driver to clinch a Drivers’ Championship in a Sprint race on Saturday, and just needs to finish sixth or better to do so. A sixth-place finish in an F1 Sprint would give him three points, which would be enough to make it mathematically impossible for Pérez to catch him.

Conversely, Pérez needs to finish in the top three of the F1 Sprint to keep his slim hopes of catching Verstappen alive. Should Verstappen come away without points on Saturday, but Pérez finishes fourth or lower, Verstappen has clinched the title.

Let’s assume for grins that Verstappen fails to finish Saturday, and Pérez wins. He could still clinch Sunday, and would need to just finish in eighth place or better in the Grand Prix. An eighth-place finish would get him four more points … and a very big trophy.