No one is walking through that door to help the New England Patriots

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

After suffering the worst loss of the Bill Belichick era, what is next for the Patriots?

Sometimes in the all-so-glamorous world of sports writing, you get something right.

Take, for example, what we at SB Nation had to say about the New England Patriots, and their Super Bowl chances, ahead of the 2023 NFL season:

Bill Belichick looks to be putting together one of the more talented defenses in the NFL this season. The Patriots reached a new deal with Matthew Judon, keeping the pass rusher in town for a few more years, they added Christian Gonzalez, who looks like he was built in a lab to play cornerback for Belichick, and they have versatility at all three levels of their defense.

This is a unit built to keep the Patriots in games.

The bigger question, however, is whether the offense will be good enough under third-year quarterback Mac Jones to win those games.

Through four games this season, that seems largely accurate.

The defense in New England through, let’s say the first three-plus games, has been good enough to keep them in contests. Good enough to keep the Patriots in a one-score game against the defending NFC Champions in Week 1. Good enough to keep the Patriots in a one-score game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2. Good enough to keep them in a game against Zach Wilson and the New York Jets in Week 3.

But as we noted, they needed something more — from their offense — if they were going to win those games. Instead, they traveled to Dallas to take on the Cowboys with a 1-2 record, and then experienced the worst loss of the Bill Belichick Era.

Making matters worse? The team lost both of those players we mentioned for at least some time going forward, as Gonzalez suffered a shoulder injury early in the game, and Judon a bicep tendon tear.

The Patriots made a trade on Wednesday morning for old friend J.C. Jackson, as word came out that Gonzalez is expected to miss the season with a torn labrum.

Belichick has pulled some rabbits out of hats before in his New England tenure. Sunday’s loss had many Patriots fans thinking back to a loss at Kansas City early in the 2014 season to the Chiefs. Blown out and out of sorts on Monday Night Football, the team looked lost, and questions arose about the future of both Belichick, and Tom Brady.

You know how that story ends. Belichick declared “we’re on to Cincinnati,” the team bounced back with a win over the Bengals the following Sunday night, and were soon on their way to a Super Bowl title.

There was another such moment, a few seasons later. As the schedule wound down during the 2018-2019 season, the Patriots seemed sluggish on offense. Back-to-back losses late in the season to the Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers — yes the stunning last-second loss to Miami where Rob Gronkowski was in the game on defense — and an underwhelming win over the Buffalo Bills where Brady threw a pair of interceptions had many, this writer included, wondering if they had enough to make a run.

Of course, they did.

Yes, there is a common denominator between those teams and the 2023 Patriots, and it is Brady himself. In a region that knows all too well that Brady is not “walking through that door,” much of the focus these past few days has been on Jones. The third-year quarterback had one of the worst games of his career against the Cowboys, throwing a pair of interceptions and losing a fumble in the 38-3 loss. One of those interceptions saw Jones break a cardinal rule of quarterback play, as he threw late across the field for a Pick Six.

This was just a few plays after he had gotten away with the same move, narrowly avoiding a Pick Six. A proverbial heat check moment gone awry.

2023 was about getting the best version of Jones the Patriots could, following last year’s ill fated “Matt Patricia: Offensive Coordinator” experiment. The team brought Bill O’Brien back to Foxborough and there were plans for an offense more suited to Jones’s skillset. More play-action designs. More run-pass option designs. More ways to get the best out of the former first-round pick.

While the offense looks better on film, at least conceptually, the results have yet to follow. A season ago the Patriots ranked 25th in Success Rate (SR), checking in with a SR of 41.1 percent, per RBSDM.com.

Through four games this season, New England ranks 20th, with a SR of 41.2 percent.

If you examine offensive efficiency, through the lens of Expected Points Added (EPA), you see that if anything, the team has taken a step back, especially in terms of the running game. Here are their 2022 numbers:

And now, 2023:

Those run game woes might have to do with the negative game scripts they have seen in three of their four games. They might also have to do with the injuries up front, as New England is dealing with a banged up offensive line.

Creating explosive plays in the passing game has also been an issue for the Patriots. Through four games, New England has just seven passing plays of 20 or more yards, ahead of only the Cincinnati Bengals.

As an aside, if you had the Bengals last in that category coming into 2023, kudos on an incredible call.

Not all of these struggles are on Jones, but some of them are. New England has had opportunities for explosive plays this season, but the quarterback has not taken advantage of those chances. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, on throws of 20 or more yards this year Jones has an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 21.1%.

That ranks 22nd out of 22 qualified passers.

That includes throws like this attempted vertical route to Kendrick Bourne, which Jones leaves too far outside:

Or this failed connection with JuJu Smith-Schuster, from later in the game against the Jets:

On some of these misses in the downfield passing game, it looks as if Jones and his target are not on the same page. Two such examples come from Week 1, when Jones put his throws to the outside but his targets (Ty Montgomery and Demario Douglas) broke towards the middle of the field. Communications issues like that can get sorted out over the course of a season.

But right now, this offense is not where it needs to be. Not yet, and with the defense now weakened due to injuries, the pressure will only increase on this unit to hold up its end of the bargain.

What can be done? Getting healthy up front would be a huge start. Trent Brown has missed time due to a concussion, Cole Strange missed his second-straight game with a knee injury, and getting their five expected starters on the field for an extended period of time could solidify a unit that has struggled through four games. Jones has been pressured on 37.7% of his dropbacks this year, per PFF charting.

That is 11th most in the league.

However, that has come largely without opponents blitzing. New England has faced the second fewest blitzes this season. Only the Chiefs have been blitzed less.

Getting the running game going might help, at least with taking some pressure off of Jones. Coming into this season many believed the run game — and perhaps a reliance on 12 offensive personnel given Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki — would be a focus. But as outlined above, the run game has sputtered. Much of that could be game script, as they have faced big deficits in three of their four games, so this is an area to track going forward.

Then there are some schematic elements which seem to be missing. Patriots fans have been clamoring for two-plus season to see more play-action designs, and more RPO elements. Yes play-action is often a catch-all balm for people like me to point to when it comes to fixing an offense, but with Jones there is evidence to support the notion that the balm works.

A season ago Jones posted an ACP of 83.1 percent per PFF on play-action concepts, sixth-best among qualified passers. It was one of the few things that worked for this offense a year ago.

But only 16.7 percent of his dropbacks were on such designs, 23rd out of 25 qualified passers.

This year? More of the same. Jones has an ACP of 85.7 percent per PFF on these designs — fifth best in the NFL — but these plays account for just 16.4 percent of his dropbacks, ranking him 27th out of 31 qualified passers.

Sure, game script goes a long way towards explaining this, as New England faced deficits in three of their four games and the ball fake does not carry as much weight when you’re trailing by 16. Yet it remains something to watch.

But the fact of the matter remains that for whatever the reason, the New England offense is not where it needs to be. This is year three for Mac Jones, the proverbial “QB Leap Year.”

That leap has yet to materialize. For New England’s sake — and Jones’s — it needs too soon. Because the thing about great quarterback play is that when you make that leap, you can help the team overcome mistakes. Mistakes in roster construction. Mistakes in blitz pickup. Mistakes around you. That is the safety net for teams with franchise quarterbacks: They can pick up the slack when things go haywire around them.

Jones is not there yet, and unfortunately for New England, given everything around him and now the injuries on the defensive side of the football, they need him to be.

Because the answers are not walking through that door.