8 NFL coaches on the hot seat, ranked from smoldering to pants on fire

Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Bill Belichick, Kevin Stefanski among a large group of NFL coaches in danger early in the season

The NFL is, after all, a business.

That means there are people who are hired, and people who unfortunately are fired. It comes with the territory.

Through five games of the NFL season, there are some coaches who might feel a little heat. Let’s look at the coaches on the hot seat entering Week 6, using SB Nation’s patented heat scale:

Potentially flammable
Buns getting toasty
Pants smoldering
Pants on fire

Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

There’s a new ownership group in D.C. and they’re not going to suffer mediocrity for very long. The feeling-out period on Ron Rivera is over, and the defensive-minded head coach has become far too risk-averse for his own good.

The Commanders started the season looking like a team ready to take the next step, but they now find themselves at 2-3, and saved from the NFC East cellar by the grace of the Giants’ ineptitude.

Rivera is far too resistant to change mid-season, and this is a team in dire need of a shakeup. When you compound that with the fact that Eric Bieniemy is waiting in the wings at offensive coordinator and you have a storm brewing where a change could happen, and be needed at the same time — all with a worthwhile interim candidate being on staff who could get his chance to lead a team before taking over permanently.

Hot seat status: Pants on fire

Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers

When Brandon Staley was hired by the Los Angeles Chargers, he had two big things going for him.

First was Justin Herbert, who was coming off a rookie season that earned him Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. The Chargers had their quarterback, and with Herbert on a rookie deal they had a window.

Second was Staley himself. Part of the Vic Fangio coaching tree, Staley was part of the movement towards two-high coverages that has spanned the NFL the past few seasons. The pieces seemed in place for the Chargers to make a run.

Since then, however, it has not lived up to the billing. Staley’s first year as a head coach culminated in a stunning Week 18 loss in a “win or tie or go home” situation to the Las Vegas Raiders, where Staley made some … let’s just say interesting decisions. Instead of advancing to the playoffs with a win or a tie — both of which were on the table — Staley was at home watching them with the rest of us.

Then last season the Chargers did make the playoffs, only to blow a 27-0 lead to Jacksonville.

Fast-forward to today, where Herbert has a big contract, the Chargers defense is giving 5.9 yards per play — fourth-worst in the NFL — and Los Angeles is 2-2. Could Staley’s time be running out? It certainly feels that way.

Hot seat status: Pants on fire

Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns

Given their schedule, the Browns being 2-2 coming out of their bye week, while losing Nick Chubb and Jack Conklin for the season and Deshaun Watson missing a game, should be considered a quality start. Instead, the injury-related drama/confusion around Watson’s throwing shoulder, some baffling play calls on offense and an expensive roster with limited draft capital puts Stefanski squarely on the hot seat as soon as next week.

As covered previously, Watson’s contract means Stefanski will be the first to go. With the San Francisco 49ers coming to town this week, a blowout loss (whether Watson plays or not) could lead to a quick change.

Hot Seat Status: Smoldering on the verge of pants on fire

Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

It’s Matt Eberflus. It’s the Chicago Bears. Do we need to say anything more? A sweetheart pick to “take the next step” in 2023, the Bears have been one of the sorriest teams in the NFL. If it wasn’t for the total meltdown in Denver right now they’d probably be the sorriest team in the league right now.

Eberflus seemingly has no answers to the problem. Even a convincing win over the Commanders isn’t enough to sway anyone that he’s the long-term answer. Not only is the Bears’ defense pathetic, but the offense is so bad it’s destroying any hopes of Justin Fields having a long-term career in the NFL.

This was a dicey hire when it was made, and week after week it continues to look horrible. It would take a small miracle for Eberflus to make it out of 2023 with his job.

Hot seat status: Pants on fire

Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Jerry Jones wants, needs, craves his team to start winning. Mike McCarthy has been a solid coach for the Cowboys, but “solid” is what leads to a lot of regular season success and playoff mediocrity.

This is still a team that’s in good shape, and truthfully most teams will lose to the 49ers this season — but the inability to even look competitive against San Francisco, paired with an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals makes his future dicey.

If this team drops another easy game or two then Jerry is going to make heads roll.

Hot seat status: Smoldering

Photo by Winslow Townson/Getty Images

Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

On the one hand, this sounds unimaginable. We are talking about Bill Belichick, a living legend in the NFL. A man who has won eight Super Bowl titles — the most of any individual in NFL history — and has actual game plans in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He stands second only to Don Shula in all-time victories.

But at the same time, this is a franchise that has not seen a playoff win since they defeated the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII. They are coming off a losing season and just suffered two of their worst losses in the Belichick Era: A 38-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys (the worst overall loss during his run) coupled with a 34-0 shutout to the New Orleans Saints (their worst home loss during Belichick’s tenure).

Many believe that Belichick the GM should be the one on the hot seat, but it is unlikely that he would give up that title. This is also a coach who came up under Bill Parcells, he of the “if you want me to cook the dinner, let me shop for the groceries” theory of football management.

In January of 2015, ahead of Super Bowl XLIX, Tom Brady Sr. gave his well-known interview with The New York Times Magazine where he said “[i]t will end badly. It does end badly.” He was of course talking about his son’s time as the QB in New England.

But is there a chance it ends badly for his former coach as well?

Hot Seat Status: Pants smoldering

Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers

Does Frank Reich deserve to be fired? Absolutely not. Should he at least get a season or two to right the ship? Hell yes. The problem here is owner David Tepper who wants immediate success and gets distracted by shiny things like a stoned teenager in the aluminum foil aisle of a grocery store at 1 a.m.

Reich has given himself full control over the Panthers offense and it’s abysmal. Bryce Young doesn’t have the freedom to show off his best traits, and Carolina remains the only winless team in the NFL right now — without a first-round pick in 2024 to look forward to.

With an all-star cast of coaches around him, Reich has put himself in a prime position where there’s a plethora of interim coaches available, should Tepper get fed up and pull the trigger.

Hot seat status: Buns getting toasty

Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders

By almost any measure, McDaniels should be on the hot seat. Now into the second season of his Raiders tenure, the team is 8-14 under his leadership. There seems to be nothing McDaniels loves more than to take a one-score game … and make it a one-score game. In Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers he elected to kick a field goal when the Raiders were trailing by eight with just over two minutes left, and facing a 4th and 4 at the Steelers’ eight-yard line. Las Vegas had all three timeouts left, and the two-minute warning.

Instead, a one-score game remained a one-score game and the Raiders lost by five.

Then this past week, he again elected for a field goal late with the Raiders holding a four-point lead. The Green Bay Packers had just one timeout remaining, so a first down would have sealed the win.

Daniel Carlson’s 52-yard try hit the upright, and the Packers had a shot at the win. A Jordan Love interception let McDaniels off the hook, but these are two extremely curious decisions.

But, here is the thing.

The Raiders cannot afford to let McDaniels go, at least not yet.

They are still under the Jon Gruden contract, and as was reported last season, until they are in a stronger cash position, they do not have the flexibility to part with McDaniels. So they will have to live with these coaching decisions for a little while longer.

Hot seat status: Potentially flammable