Weather may play a huge role at the Las Vegas Grand Prix

Photo by Dan Istitene – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images

Cold temperatures may shake up the field in Las Vegas

As the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix approaches, race officials are promising several factors that could make the race one of the marquee events of every Formula 1 season. They are promising speed, as we discussed yesterday. They are promising the scenic backdrop of the Las Vegas Strip, which will make for stunning visuals as 20 F1 drivers rocket along the streets of Vegas at night. They are promising a full Las Vegas experience, complete with an Opening Ceremony featuring driver introductions and some of the biggest names in music.

However, there is one factor that is a bit more uncertain, which could make the race one of the most fascinating this season, and beyond.

Weather.

With the Grand Prix taking place at night — lights will go out to start the race at 10:00 p.m. local time — and qualifying taking place at midnight local time, that means the sun will not be out to warm up the track, and the drivers. Add in the fact that history indicates that by that time of November, temperatures are likely to be in the range of 50 degrees Fahrenheit, or even cooler.

“It is gonna be cold,” McLaren CEO Zak Brown told me last month when he sat down with SB Nation. “I think that might be the coldest race on the calendar.”

Those conditions could impact everything from the tires to the drivers, come race week.

Let’s start with the tires.

This will be the biggest concern for teams, particularly during qualifying. Given the standard qualifying formation, all 20 drivers will have 18 minutes during Q1 to post a lap time good enough to advance to Q2, and the five slowest drivers will be eliminated.

The colder it is, the longer it will take drivers to get their tires warmed to an ideal temperature, which could make for a chaotic scene as Q1 winds down.

“It’ll be a real challenge to turn on the tires, but Pirelli is ready for that, it’ll be the same challenge for everyone,” added Brown. “So as long as it doesn’t get into the 30s [degree range], that’s when you have a real challenge, I think as long as we stay in the 40s, which I think the average temperature of that time year is, about 45, it’ll just be a nice brisk night.”

To that end, Pirelli announced last week that the three softest tire compounds — the C3, the C4, and the C5 — would be the options available to teams in Las Vegas.

“The temperature and the asphalt is quite smooth, according to the information I have,” said Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola. “So the level of grip will be very poor. I can anticipate this.

“I can imagine that with these cold conditions, super-cold conditions, and a circuit that is not generating a lot of energy into the tyres, the warm-up will be tricky,” added Isola.

This already has drivers concerned they will spend the bulk of time during qualifying warming up their tires to get them in the right window, rather than laying down push laps to try and advance to the next stage of qualifying.

“Should be four degrees, five degrees [Celsius] I think, which will be interesting,” said Williams driver Alexander Albon ahead of the Mexico City Grand Prix. “I wonder if we’re doing three or four prep laps for qualifying, but it will be a tough one.”

For Mercedes Trackside Engineering Director Andrew Shovlin, how qualifying unfolds might just come down to exactly how cold it is.

“It’ll just depend on exactly how cold it is,” said Shovlin to Motorsport in September.

“Because if the track is down in single figures, that’s often a region where you go winter testing. You do a run, it’s very difficult for the tires to either get them switched on, or there may be graining and things,” added Shovlin. “And then sometimes you just wait until it warms up a bit. So actually having to sort of race and qualify in those conditions, it will be interesting.

“You just try and identify the risks with the new circuit, work out what your contingencies will be, whether you need any sort of specific car spec to deal with that. And we’re going through that at the moment,” continued Shovlin. “But as I said, if it’s at the very cold end of predictions, it’s difficult to know how the tyres are going to work.”

Jonathan Eddolls, the Chief Race Engineer at AlphaTauri, agreed with Shovlin’s comparison to pre-season testing.

“The temperatures are going to be probably one of the biggest challenges,” he said to Motorsport in September. “I think we’re expecting circa [ten degrees Celsius] of ambient [temperature], so very much like the winter test.

“In many years, we’ve done winter tests in Barcelona at those sorts of temperatures. So it’s not going to be completely new to us. But definitely it’s quite a step away in terms of where we’re going to be operating the current tyres to what we’re used to in a normal season.”

This means the Las Vegas Grand Prix could be a voyage of discovery for teams, and may open the door to some unexpected results. Teams that have struggled with tire degradation issues this year, like Haas, may suddenly find themselves with a bit of an advantage.

Or perhaps more accurately, at less of a disadvantage.

“It’s a very different temperature window, so we’ve got to get the tyres to work,” said Haas Director of Engineering Ayao Komatsu. “But if I had to choose hot or cold, I’d choose cold conditions at this minute! So hopefully, we can get it to work. I think it’ll be a big challenge for us, especially our team with the tools we’ve got in terms of pre-event simulation, more limited compared with let’s say Mercedes.”

As noted with Albon’s comments above, drivers are certainly wondering how tires will hold up in the conditions.

“And then I think the big thing there, as you said, will be the temperature and how the tyres behave in those temperatures,” said Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz Jr. ahead of the United States Grand Prix last month.

“Also, given the track layout – very long straights – so, a tyre will cool down on those straights and then getting into a corner on a very low downforce setting, like we’re expecting in Vegas, on a cold tyre, on a new surface, I think there could be many variables for tyres and temperatures in general to be a big talking point that weekend,” continued Sainz. “And graining, if it’s very cold, like we’ve seen in winter testing… Not in Bahrain, but in other venues. So yeah, I think those are the things we will be keeping an eye on, but until we get there… You can be as prepared as you want, but until you see what happens on the car, you cannot react.”

There is how the colder conditions will impact the drivers in the cockpit during race week.

A few weeks ago, drivers endured a punishing race at the Qatar Grand Prix, that left drivers dehydrated to the point of exhaustion. Williams driver Logan Sargeant retired from the race due to the conditions, and Alpine driver Esteban Ocon admitted to vomiting inside his crash helmet during the race.

In Las Vegas, they’ll face a different battle.

Staying warm.

“The temperature is one to prepare for, both in terms of a driver’s hands,” said McLaren’s Lando Norris before the United States Grand Prix. “You know, you need your hands to work well when you’re driving, so being on top of all of that is something we’re already looking into – just simple things sometimes, with hand warmers and gloves and whatever.”

So instead of the trackside ice baths you see drivers enjoy at places like Singapore and Qatar, expect to see more warming stations in the garage area.

“So I think it’ll be cool and dark as opposed to the other night races in the Middle East and Singapore where the weather stays warm even as the sun goes down,” explained Brown to me last month.

“Drivers probably won’t have to put themselves in ice tubs like they do in Singapore.”

So while we expect the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix to be fast, just how fast the race is might come down to just how cold of a night it is.