Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images
We already know if the Celtics or Mavericks will hold the Larry O’Brien Trophy because analytics says so
The stage is set. The names are known. The excitement is all but guaranteed. Now, we just wait for the NBA Finals to tip-off between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks. Can the Celtics duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown get over the hump to bring home the 18th NBA title for Boston or will Luke Doncic and Kyrie Irving prove the Western Conference is supreme like everyone thought?
Outside of the big four names, Boston and Dallas are both loaded with talent. Despite being the fifth seed in the rugged West, the Mavericks won as many games as the second seed in the East, the New York Knicks. The Celtics have flown through the Eastern Conference playoffs with just two losses after winning the East by a whopping 14 games in the regular season.
In every way, including analytics, Boston was expected to be here chasing the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Dallas, on the other hand, was a surprise to many including the data. The Mavericks overcame the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals despite being significantly worse on the defensive side of the ball.
At least in the West in 2024, offense brought home the trophy. Given the opening betting line, it is easy to think that the series will be one-sided but that was also the expectation in the series against the Timberwolves and we all know how that turned out.
Injuries are likely to be the great unknown at this point especially with Krisaps Porzingis returning for the Celtics. No amount of data can predict what player might go down or how quickly they will recover in between games.
Despite that, we hope to predict which team will be raising the trophy at the end of the NBA Finals by using analytics. In the NFL playoffs, we have used DVOA to predict each round over the last two seasons. Unlike the NFL, the NBA is full of different advanced data that helps put the game into perspective. Data points like Player Efficiency Rating, LEBRON, Win Shares per 48 minutes, Win Probability Added, Real Plus-Minus, RAPTOR and others try to help put the game into context.
For our predictions, we will be using advanced net rating (aNet) which takes into account a wide variety of data points, including adjusting for schedule, to boil down a team to simple numbers to help us predict the outcome of the conference finals.
Like any analytical model, aNet is not considered predictive of what will happen. Instead, it provides a data point of what has happened to help rate teams.
But even while aNet may not be considered predictive, it does provide us with quality data points as a guide for the upcoming conference finals.
NBA Finals Prediction
Overall aNet: Boston 1st vs Dallas 14th
Offensive aNet: Boston 1st vs Dallas 7th
Defensive aNet: Boston 2nd vs Dallas 18th
Edge: Celtics – As it was in the conference finals, Boston is the clear favorite via analytics over the Mavericks. This matches the current odds as well. With a week to get healthy, Doncic and Irving will look to overcome the odds with their ability to control things on the offensive end of the court. Dallas was able to rank seventh on that side of the ball in the regular season despite Irving missing 24 games and Doncic being out 12.
How Porzingis is able to return after not playing for over a month will be closely monitored after the Celtics were able to run roughshod without him. Boston seems to lack a weakness but they have the ability to beat themselves despite being one of the best teams in NBA history statistically, according to the numbers.
Those numbers lead to the huge advantage in aNet for the Celtics as well.
Professional sports are complicated. That is what makes them so fun. The nuance of the NBA, along with its high-flying nature, provides a level of excitement and feats of athleticism rarely seen in the common person. But boiling that game down to a simple number, as we have done above, is an attempt to help understand the game better and, perhaps, win a little money as well.
