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The Panthers played stupid games with Brian Burns, now they’re winning stupid prizes.
Brian Burns is still a member of Carolina Panthers. That’s the only good news for fans when it comes to the team’s franchise pass rusher. This week Carolina placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Burns, keeping him inside the organization for at least one more year while the sides still try to reach an agreement on a long-term deal.
Burns now carries a cap hit of $24 million this season, after it was reported he wanted something in the $30M range per year on a long-term deal. Teams not seeing eye-to-eye happens with potential free agents all the time, but it’s how this came to pass that’s utterly mind-boggling. The team went from seeing Burns as an indispensable part of their future plans, to now haggling over $5 million a year while the salary cap swells and makes it easier than ever to give players pay raises.
The mishandling of Burns deserves a deep dive, because if he’s run out of Carolina in 2025 it will be a case study in how not to deal with a star player.
Just how good is Brian Burns?
It’s easy to sleep on Burns as a pass rusher because he plays on the worst team in the NFL. Drafted with the No. 16 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft the 25-year-old has been a force since entering the league. It’s not just that Burns is a productive pass rusher, it’s his ability to create opportunities for himself that puts him in rare company.
If you watch the film on Burns he rarely benefits from coverage sacks, or simply being credited with team sack opportunities. Despite being a lithe 250 pounds, he was more than able to hold his own inside the team’s 4-3 defense, registering 38 sacks in four years at a position that didn’t even best suit his skillset.
Adjusting to a new defensive system in 2023 caused Burns to take a small step back as he converted to being the EDGE in a 3-4, but improved throughout the season to finish with 50 tackles, 8.0 sacks and a forced fumble.
As a pass rusher he’s a Swiss Army Knife, who registers sacks, stops runners before big plays develop, and can adequately cover opposing tight ends thanks to his hip fluidity and speed off the edge.
The trade that never was
Burns made headlines during the 2022 NFL Trade deadline when Carolina appeared to be in the middle of a fire sale. Christian McCaffrey had just been dealt to the 49ers, everyone on the roster was more or less available, and it was reported that the Rams were in hot pursuit of Burns, viewing him as the missing piece to their defense.
The trade offer was massive. Los Angeles was prepared to give Carolina a 1st round pick in 2024, a 1st round pick in 2025, AND a 2nd round pick in 2025 in exchange for the pass rusher. The Panthers infamously turned down the deal, saying Burns was too important to their future plans.
On some level it’s understandable. The Rams figured to be a team making the playoffs and drafting deeper in the rounds for the next few years, and the Panthers weren’t convinced they could find a pass rusher of Burns’ caliber, while also not loving that they wouldn’t see compensation until 2024. This thinking is fine, only if you actually follow through on the notion that Burns really is critical to your organization.
As we now approach the 2024 we can see the damage of that non-trade independent of Burns’ status. The Rams will be selected 19th in the 2024 NFL Draft. Our latest mock from J.P. Acosta has Los Angeles picking edge rusher Laiatu Latu out of UCLA at No. 19. Someone who would absolutely be on the Panthers’ radar if they traded Burns.
If you factor in the 2nd round pick this year AND a 2025 1st round pick, which could be on the tail-end of Matthew Stafford’s effectiveness, then not moving Burns is a defining moment in Carolina history.
So what’s happening right now?
The Panthers placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on Burns, identical to what the Ravens did with Lamar Jackson a year ago. This allows teams to negotiate with Burns, potentially sign him to an offer sheet, and if the Panthers don’t match they’ll get two first round picks in return.
It’s unclear if anyone would bite on this. The Rams certainly have the cap space available to pull the trigger and essentially get a discount of their trade offer from 2022 — but the key difference is that this time they’d need to be the ones to sign Burns to his extension, rather than get him on his rookie contract.
Another team to watch would be the Texans, who have more cap space than they know what to do with and could use another proven pass rusher over more youth inside their organization. Not to mention that pairing Burns with Will Anderson would be incredible to watch, and make opposing offenses soil themselves.
This all assumes that someone makes the offer. If not Burns will play in 2024, and the teams will keep lowballing his offers until 2025 — when even the franchise tag won’t save him. Pass rush salaries are only going up, and that $30M per that Burns seeks now could be vastly more moving forward.
It’s put up or shut up time for Carolina: Either Brian Burns is as important to the team as you said he was, in which case you pay him — or you’ve decided he’s expendable and try to trade him around the draft. The only bad move at this point is inaction, which is exactly what the Panthers did to get in this mess.
Brian Burns is a tremendous player and he deserves better than the way the Panthers are treating him. Someone will see that, one way or another.
