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Adebayo is stretching out his game with Team USA, and it could be a big benefit for the Heat.
Bam Adebayo is one of the best two-way players in basketball. In every season from 2019 to 2023, Adebayo finished in the 80th percentile or higher in both Offensive and Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (per Dunks & Threes).
But given that the Miami Heat sat around idly as their Eastern Conference contemporaries grew stronger (namely the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers), they are going to need Adebayo to hit another level if they hope to keep pace.
Adebayo’s recent performance against Team Serbia during Olympic play has some people pinpointing a pathway for his ascension: developing into a bonafide stretch big.
Given how he ended last season and what he’s doing today, 2024-25 really could be the season Bam becomes a legit stretch big
— Jackson Frank (@jackfrank_jjf) July 17, 2024
Adebayo isn’t the interior scorer that guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo or Anthony Davis are (he was only in the 32nd percentile in rim frequency among bigs last year, per Cleaning the Glass). So, adding a consistent three-point shot is a great way to increase his scoring volume without tanking his efficiency. Plus, it adds floor spacing to a Heat team that desperately needs it.
But how viable is it for Adebayo to become a true stretch big man?
What does it mean to be a true stretch big man?
A stretch big man is a center who can hit enough threes at a high enough clip in order to compel defenses to pay attention to them when they are spaced on the perimeter. Shooting 45 percent from three means very little if you are only attempting one three per game. The same is true for someone taking nine threes a game and only hitting 25 percent of them (although I doubt any coach would allow a player to attempt that many threes if that were the case).
The case for Bam Adebayo becoming a stretch big man
While I am by no means a shot doctor, most good shooters have two things going for them: good touch and a quick release.
Last season, Adebayo shot 35.7 percent on 42 three-point attempts. That isn’t nearly enough of a sample size to extract any insight from. But as a general rule, you can also get a sense of a player’s touch by looking at their midrange and free throw percentages. Adebayo has multiple seasons that demonstrate his proficiency in both those areas.
Not only does Adebayo hit midrange jumpers and free throws at an above-average rate for his position, but he does it on elite-level volume.
Adebayo clearly has pristine touch. The problem is that his release speed isn’t nearly as enticing. The following montage of clips probably won’t say too much until we look at some other players, but notice how long it takes Adebayo to launch catch-and-shoot threes (the type of threes spacers take) and how much of a dip he has in his shot.
This exaggerated dip is a big reason why Adebayo was only able to launch 0.6 threes per 75 possessions (7th percentile).
Looking at history
To better understand Adebayo’s chances of developing into a stretch big man, we’re going to compare Adebayo’s indicators to other players who started out as non-threats from the outside but later developed into legitimate/passable stretch big men.
Brook Lopez
Arguably, the most famous example of a player who went from non-shooter to stretch big is Brook Lopez. Lopez took just 31 total threes during the first eight seasons of his career, only to launch 2,651 in the next eight.
Even before Lopez was hoisting triples at an extreme rate, he always exhibited great touch. In 2015-16, the last season before his transformation, Lopez was in the 90th percentile in midrange frequency and the 87th percentile in midrange efficiency.
As for release speed, Lopez’s current release (first clip in the montage below) is much quicker than Adebayo’s, as evidenced by his significant advantage in 3-point volume (63rd percentile in 3-point attempts per 75 last year). But the major worry for Adebayo here is that Lopez’s release was always pretty quick (second clip), even before he became a true stretch big.
As we will see in a second, it will become a recurring theme that it is very difficult to change release speed throughout one’s career (at least for centers).
Al Horford
The only example of a self-made stretch big that is as famous as Lopez is Al Horford. In his first eight seasons, he took a few more threes than Lopez (65). Of course, Horford went on to beast that total by taking 2,210 threes in the last nine seasons.
Like Lopez and Adebayo, Horford flashed great touch from the midrange and free throw line before he started taking a bunch of threes. And also like Lopez (but unlike Adebayo), Horford had very little dip on catch-and-shoot jumpers, even prior to his earning the stretch big moniker. The clip below is from the 2014-15 season.
(Sidebar #1: Despite his elderly status, Horford still maintains a pretty quick release.)
Larry Nance Jr.
Larry Nance Jr. doesn’t have the reputation as a spacer that Lopez and Horford do. Last season, he shot 41.5 percent from three – a major step up from the 10 percent he shot during his rookie season. But he did it on pedestrian volume (14th percentile in threes per 75). On top of that, Nance has not shown the same level of midrange/free throw shooting pedigree that the other three players we’ve discussed so far. Between him, Adebayo, Lopez, and Horford, Nance is the only one who has a career free throw percentage under 70 percent (69.6 percent). On a spectrum of stretch bigs, he falls much closer to the “passable” end than the “legitimate” one.
With all that said, Nance, like Lopez and Horford, has always touted a speedy release. Although, he does have more of a dip than Lopez and Horford.
Wendell Carter Jr.
Wendell Carter Jr. didn’t surpass the 30 percent mark from downtown until his fourth season in the NBA. But that didn’t stop him from becoming a 37.4 percent three-point shooter on solid volume (40th percentile in threes per 75) last year. His touch is nothing to write home about, either. Carter has finished below the league average on midrange jumpers in three of his six NBA seasons (including the 2022-23 season).
As for his release speed, it is the most comparable to Adebayo’s – slow with a pronounced dip. Here is an example from the present day (first clip in the montage below) and one from before his emergence as a shooter (second clip):
(Sidebar #2: I also studied the jumpers of Myles Turner and Jaylin Williams, and both of them have always had quicker releases with very little dip.)
The Bottom Line
So, what do all these numbers and historical analysis mean for Adebayo’s chances?
Here, we focused on two players (Lopez and Horford) who went from being zero spacers to elite ones for their position and two players (Nance and Carter) who went from self-check to solid stretch centers.
Even before their evolution, Lopez and Horford always had great touch, a quick release, and very little dip on their jumper. Adebayo may have that first feature, but his shooting mechanics are lacking in the other two areas, making it hard for me to envision him ever becoming an elite stretch big.
Nance doesn’t have Adebayo’s touch, and he also lets the ball dip quite a bit when he shoots it from three. However, his release is/was noticeably faster than Adebayo’s, and even then, he isn’t that effective of a stretch center.
Adebayo’s best role model for this journey is Carter. Adebayo has more proven touch, but both of them share similar mechanical shortcomings.
At the end of the day, if Adebayo is going to be a stretch big, it is likely going to be similar to the type of spacer Carter is. That isn’t needle-moving floor spacing (see how unimpressive the Orlando Magic’s offensive rating is when Carter is on the floor). So, pairing him next to another poor spacer still wouldn’t be ideal. But if you can manage to surround him with four good spacers, that could lead to a pretty wide-open basketball court.
(Sidebar #3: If you are wondering why I focused solely on players currently in the league for this study, it’s because, before the pace-and-space era, it was very uncommon for a center who wasn’t a good shooter coming into the league to become a volume 3-point shooter.)
