Football Court debates if the NFL MVP race is actually already over.
The NFL season is heading around the final turn, and with that comes award season. The most important of the season is the NFL’s Most Valuable Player, which feels like it’s come down to three candidates. The Buffalo Bills have surged to the top of the AFC, and QB Josh Allen is playing his best football of his career en route to many believing he has the MVP trophy locked up. Allen has launched himself to the front of the MVP odds, but is the MVP race truly over?
Let’s take it to Football Court.
Josh Allen is the NFL MVP, and in the end it won’t be close — James Dator
If it pleases the court, I’m here today to explain to you why Josh Allen is the NFL MVP of 2024, and why when the dust settles it won’t be a particularly close race.
A lot of amazing players have had amazing seasons in 2024, but nobody like Josh Allen. Not only is Allen having the best complete season of his career, but he’s doing it with one of the weakest supporting casts in his era in Buffalo. Can we say the same about Saquon Barkley running behind the Eagles’ monstrous offensive line, or Lamar Jackson with the colossal benefit of Derrick Henry to take the pressure off him? The answer is no.
This season Allen is on pace for finish 2024 with over 4,000 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and only six interceptions. All while throwing a preposterous 8.0 yards-per-attempt — and to who? Khalil Shakir? Rookie Keon Coleman? Dalton Kincaid? Allen is taking these players, guys who are talented but definitely not top-flight talent, and has turned this Bills’ offense into one of the best units in the entire NFL, lagging behind the Lions by only a hair.
That is only talking about Allen as a passer, which has been only a fraction of his impact to why Buffalo’s defense is so scary. He’s rushed for 486 yards and counting this season, 11 touchdowns, he’s picked up FORTY-SIX first downs with his legs — which is even more than starting RB James Cook. If the Bills need something done on offense they call No. 17’s number, and more often than not he delivers.
The numbers speak for themselves, but what about the impact on the Bills this season if Allen mysteriously vanished tomorrow? Yes, every team with an elite quarterback would take a profound hit — but is there anything scary about the Bills on offense other than Josh Allen? We know the Eagles can win with Saquon Barkley. The Ravens would still likely be a .500 team leaning on Derrick Henry and their defense.
The Bills? Remove Allen and they’re a three win team, tops. This is a team that currently has 53 total touchdowns in 2024, and THIRY-SEVEN of them were either passed, run, or caught (yes, he has one) by Josh Allen.
None of this is to denigrate the achievements of anyone else. Lamar Jackson has truly had a legendary season. He’s been remarkable, and is finally getting the props he deserves as an elite passer. Still, this season Allen has been a force on every single down, every single play, and done it for an 11-3 team that has a case for being the best team in the AFC. Can the Ravens make that same claim? No.
It’s precisely for these reasons Josh Allen is the most valuable player to his team this season, and finally deserves the award for the first time in his career.
Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley are on pace for statistical seasons unlike anyone before, which means this race isn’t over — JP Acosta
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, our story begins in 2018, with the drafting of Buffalo Bills’ QB Josh Allen and Baltimore Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson. Both are the modern prototype of what an NFL QB should be and leading their teams into the playoffs once again. While Josh Allen is having an incredible season, leading the Bills to a top 2 seed as the engine behind a monstrous offense, Lamar Jackson is playing just as well statistically. If we just use raw passing yards, Jackson has that: fifth in the NFL with 3,580 passing yards, second in the NFL in passing touchdowns with 34 and he’s the only QB in the NFL in the top five of passing touchdowns with under five interceptions—he has three on the entire year. Add on top of that 743 rushing yards and three touchdowns, as well as 6.4 yards per carry. Jackson currently leads the NFL in yards per carry…AND yards per attempt as a passer. He has fully been unleashed in this offense, and it’s leading to some incredible single season numbers. If he continues on his pace of about 256 passing yards per game and 53 yards per game, he would finish the season with 4,375 passing yards and 902 rushing yards, the most rushing yards for any player with over 4,000 passing yards ever. If he gets to 1,000 rushing yards he would be the only player in NFL history to reach that number.
As in, EVER.
I think we often take Jackson’s greatness for granted. His growth as a passer in the manipulation of arm angles as a passer, to the development of his downfield passing in an offense that finally feels like a professional one has led us to this point in his career. Having Derrick Henry on the field certainly helps with the stacked boxes, but Jackson is, very similarly to Allen, the engine and critical part of that offense that makes it go.
I can make the same argument for Barkley. Despite a down game against the Steelers, Barkley leads the NFL in rushing yards with 1,688 at about a 121 per game clip. If he continues on that pace, he would finish with 2,051 rushing yards, only 54 behind the single season record set by Eric Dickerson. People will point to the Eagles’ offensive line as a major role in his success, but their play with Saquon on the field versus off the field tumbles. With Barkley on the field their EPA of 0.12 would put them right behind the Washington Commanders on the season but still a top five unit. With Barkley off the field, it tumbles to 0.02, good for 12th in the NFL. You can tell the difference when Saquon is on the field versus when Kenneth Gainwell is on for this offense. The Eagles are a more explosive unit with Barkley on the field, and if he can get to Dickerson’s record I think he has a very good chance at winning the award.
While Allen may win MVP, I don’t think the race is anywhere close to over, especially when the other two candidates are on pace for seasons that will rewrite history books.
Decision – Mark Schofield
Both Counsel Acosta and Counsel Dator have advanced compelling arguments, both of which require careful scrutiny before rendering a decision.
We can begin with the argument from Counsel Dator, on behalf of Josh Allen. There is no denying that the Bills quarterback has produced an MVP-worthy season. In a year where many believed that the Buffalo Bills would be retooling their offense around Allen — or that another team in the AFC East would supplant them atop the division standings — Allen has given us many “MVP-worthy moments:” Moments such as his touchdown pass to himself in the snow against the San Francisco 49ers, a win over Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, and last week’s performance against the Detroit Lions.
Even Allen’s game against the Los Angeles Rams, a game that ended in defeat, had enough moments to put together an MVP-worthy submission.
Counsel Dator’s arguments are rather persuasive, including this passage: “The Bills? Remove Allen and they’re a three win team, tops. This is a team that currently has 53 total touchdowns in 2024, and THIRY-SEVEN of them were either passed, run, or caught (yes, he has one) by Josh Allen.”
In many years, the MVP race would be over.
Turning to the proposition set forth by Counsel Acosta — that Lamar Jackson and Saquon Barkley are both in the middle of historic seasons, rendering any such decision premature — that is not without merit. Both players are putting together impressive campaigns, in particular Lamar Jackson.
This paragraph from Counsel Acosta is perhaps most instructive.
“If he continues on his pace of about 256 passing yards per game and 53 yards per game, he will finish the season with 4,375 passing yards and 902 rushing yards, the most rushing yards for any player with over 4,000 passing yards ever. If he gets to 1,000 rushing yards he would be the only player in NFL history to reach that number.”
Simply put, Lamar Jackson should be allowed to reach history.
As such, this honorable Court will defer judgment on this matter until a further date.
The MVP race is simply not over.
Yet.
