Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
Without him, it may spell the end of Golden State’s title window.
There’s a certain precedent among championship-winning teams that — except for two instances — has been consistently met throughout the past two decades.
A team that aspires to win an NBA title must be considered an elite defensive unit. An elite defensive unit in this instance is one that finishes no lower than 10th in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions.
Since the 1999-2000 season, only two teams have gone on to win the title without finishing as a top-10 defense during the regular season: the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers (22nd in defensive rating) and the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors (11th in defensive rating).
The common thread between those two teams, however, doesn’t stop at their regular season defensive performance. Both of them compensated with having the best collection of offensive talent on their rosters; both had all-time offensive duos that were nigh unstoppable.
More importantly, both teams ramped up their defense in the postseason. The Lakers finished as the best defensive unit of the 2001 playoffs on their way to a second consecutive championship, while the Warriors also allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions during the 2018 playoffs.
Flipping the defensive switch is a risky endeavor — which is why it has happened only twice.
With that being the exception rather than the rule, it’s imperative that teams establish themselves as a sturdy and capable defensive unit before they can even consider a deep playoff run. It’s no coincidence that the two teams during the 2022 NBA Finals were two of the 2021-22 season’s top-rated teams in terms of defensive efficiency.
Last season’s Warriors team that went on to win it all finished second in defensive rating behind the conquered Boston Celtics. The Warriors flashed the might of a defense that banked on defensive versatility: multiple pick-and-roll coverages, a mixture of man-to-man concepts and zone configurations, and — more importantly — the personnel to execute such schemes.
It also mightily helped that the Warriors had arguably the best defender of this generation on their team in Draymond Green.
Green certainly had more help last season. Gary Payton II was a bona fide elite option on the perimeter, while Otto Porter Jr. had the requisite intelligence to be an excellent team defender. Andrew Wiggins finally realized his potential as a premier wing defender.
With Payton II and Porter Jr. gone, the Warriors have struggled to replicate their trademark defensive versatility last season. Wiggins has missed 20 games due to injury and bouts of non-COVID illness and is in the process of recovering his form. Kevon Looney has done an admirable job holding the fort, but a rather uninspiring and shallow depth chart at center may eventually take its toll on him.
Green also risks suffering the same fate. He hasn’t played every game like Looney has, and arguably is at more risk of being injured (knock on wood). The mileage on his body is extensive; whatever athleticism he had during his prime is dwindling, even with a mind that continues to be as sharp as it ever was.
The quick processing and decision making compensates for all of Green’s physical shortcomings. Take, for example, a certain possession during the Warriors’ December 2 home game against the Chicago Bulls.
With 52 seconds left in the fourth quarter, Zach LaVine brings the ball down and drives against the Warriors’ 3-2 zone. With the Bulls down by eight points, it’s a last-gasp attempt at stringing together a couple of buckets.
Watch Green during this entire possession:
In a nine-second span, Green goes from helping on LaVine’s drive, to recovering toward the center of the paint to discourage any off-the-catch aggression, to closing out on Alex Caruso and blocking his three-point attempt.
In a nutshell, the possession above displays Green’s paramount value to the Warriors’ defense.
Numbers have also lent credence to that notion. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Warriors allow 110.4 points per 100 possessions from opponents during 3,136 possessions of Green on the floor this season — equivalent to the second-best defense in the league with garbage time eliminated.
In 1,992 possessions of Green sidelined or on the bench, the Warriors have allowed 118.8 points per 100 possessions from opponents — equivalent to the third-worst defense in the league. This 8.3-points-per-100 possessions change in defensive efficiency is the largest on/off differential on the team and is in the 97th percentile in the league.
Furthermore, Green is central to the Warriors’ rim deterrence and ability to wall off the paint. Their defensive philosophy — similar to other elite rim-protecting teams — has always banked on the notion that prevention is better than the cure.
The ability to block shots at the rim is always welcomed, but preventing opponents from getting to the rim and attempting up-close shots in the first place solves tons of problems. The Warriors’ scheme banks on stopping the ball, letting opponents shoot the shots they’re more willing to give up, and preventing high-efficiency looks as much as possible.
As such, they’ve employed a variety of coverages and looks to do just that. Personnel-dependent switching — a staple of the peak dynasty days — is still very much relied upon. Various ball-screen coverages such as drop, hedging, and screen-level meetups are in their wheelhouse. They switch between a 3-2 zone and 2-3 zone and utilize them as off-speed pitches to throw defenses off and force them to reset. They’ve even occasionally thrown in a box-and-one, although not to the same extent and verve as last season.
All of the options above would not be possible without an anchor of Green’s caliber. His ability to diagnose situations on the fly, put himself and his teammates in the best defensive positions to succeed, and discourage layups has been what has kept them afloat:
Jordan Poole “ICE-ing” the screen (jumping out to deny usage of the screen and forcing the ball handler against the sideline) forces a late switch onto Scottie Barnes. Green — guarding Pascal Siakam — recognizes the mismatch and “scram” switches (an off-ball switch to eliminate a mismatch) Poole out of the pickle.
From then on, it’s a matter of helping on Fred VanVleet’s drive against Looney. Green rotates into the paint — otherwise known as “trapping the box” — to protect the rim. Poole sinks in and takes Barnes. The play here is simple: force the long skip pass to Siakam — a mediocre corner shooter — instead of allowing VanVleet to saunter his way to a layup.
Without Green recognizing and fixing the configuration and positioning, the Siakam miss — a preferable outcome — would not have been made possible.
Green deserves to be on the fringes of the Defensive Player of the Year discussion as well as in consideration for an NBA All-Defensive Team selection. The Warriors being 12th in defensive rating (113.6) most probably makes him winning the DPOY a longshot.
But numbers don’t lie. In addition to the Warriors defense falling off a cliff whenever he sits down, Green has also posted monstrous rim-deterrence marks this season, despite averaging only 0.8 blocks per game.
Opponents shoot just 47.5% at the rim against Green. Among 50 players with a minimum 32 games played and who contest at least four shots at the rim per game, that is the second-best mark behind only Jaren Jackson Jr. (45.2%), who’s considered a frontrunner for DPOY. Green is also only one of two players in the top-10 of that list who average less than a block per game.
To be among the elite rim protectors in the league — typically the domain of seven-foot behemoths — while only measured as 6’5” without shoes is quite an astonishing feat.
Coupled with Looney beside him, Green has anchored a defense that allows the lowest opponent rim-attempt rate in the league: 24.2%, which is 9.3 percentage points better than league average, per Cleaning the Glass.
At 32-years old (turning 33 this March), Green is proving himself to be an invaluable component of the Warriors’ title-winning formula. It’s safe to say that without him, they will find it extremely difficult — if not impossible — to win another championship.
A future without Green is looking more likely. He has a player option next season worth $27.6 million; no one knows whether he will accept that and stay with the franchise that drafted him, try to entice the Warriors to give him a raise (a shaky proposition given their luxury-tax situation), or seek a better deal elsewhere.
This could be the last dance for the heartbeat of the Warriors dynasty, their undisputed defensive anchor, and who is arguably the best defender of this generation. The existence of their title window could very well bank on Green’s upcoming contract decision.
This Warriors team lives and dies with Green as the last line of defense. Without him, the long-expected crumbling of their dynasty may have finally arrived.
