Caleb Williams is bringing his magical creativity to Chicago. That and more in the season debut of ‘Establish the Fun.;
Welcome back to the third season of Establish the Fun, a sentence I definitely didn’t think I would be saying when I started writing this column. When I started this fresh out of grad school and without much of a clue for what I wanted to do in this space. I never could’ve imagined the ride that this column would take me on, and the growth it would allow me to have as a writer and as someone who studies football film for a living. I couldn’t be more grateful to everyone for reading and enjoying my work. It means the world to me!
Alright, now that the sappy stuff is out the way, I’m hyped for this NFL season. There’s so much fun schematic stuff going around the NFL on both sides of the ball, and the talent level at a lot of positions is truly awesome. To open up this first session of Establish The Fun, we’re looking at some rookies, both on the field and on the sideline. Let’s start with the first overall pick and how the Chicago Bears are hoping to make life easier for him.
Caleb Williams brings Minecraft creative mode to Chicago
When QB Caleb Williams was selected first overall back in April, the excitement was palpable. “The Bears finally have a QB,” was echoed largely throughout the football universe, and I largely agree. However, I think I’m excited for Williams in Chicago because this offense seems to be built around their QBs skillset, unlike the last time the Bears had a promising rookie QB. With coordinator Shane Waldron (who I think is a good OC) calling the plays and a bevy of skill position talent, Williams is set to thrive in Chicago, but his best work might come with Waldron getting him outside the pocket.
Make no mistake about it; Williams is more than capable of dicing teams up from within the constraints of the pocket. However, he truly is at his best when he’s in Minecraft creative mode, using his athleticism and arm talent to make passes at various angles. His spatial awareness and improvisation have already been on display in the preseason, and it’s something the Bears are going to harness in their 2024 campaign. Of the 20 passes he threw in the preseason, a quarter of them were on designated rollouts and bootleg action. This is a great plan for Williams, who can use the run fakes to get himself outside the pocket, and from there the magic happens.
Williams has such an effortless release of the ball, and can get any pass off from different angles. If he needs to build himself a nether sword to complete this pass he has it in the bag and this trait is most noticeable outside the pocket. He’s such a creative thrower on the move and can generate velocity from those awkward positions that the inefficient plays look like a run of the mill snap for Williams.
What I love about Waldron getting Williams on the move is that it simplifies the reads for him as well. As good as I think Williams can be from the pocket, it’s still a tall task to ask a rookie to sit in the pocket consistently and diagnose pre and post-snap coverages, while making the correct throw. Getting him on the move simplifies the read for Williams, allowing him to execute quicker and at a higher level.
Plus, if things go wrong, he can always just do this:
He built an entire golden Minecraft civilization with this one, sheesh.
The question for Williams this season will be his execution from within the pocket. While I think he can execute from there—he’s shown this preseason an ability to not panic and get to the backside of passing concepts—it’s about if he’s willing to do that. The drawback to being in Minecraft creative mode all the time is that when you go back to survival mode, sometimes when you try and build something cool you blow yourself up. In college, Williams was able to mitigate some of the pressure by being a much better athlete than anyone else on the field (an 6.2% average sack rate from Williams across his USC career isn’t sparkling, but with his style of play you’ll take it, but when he’s pressured it jumps up to an average of 18.7%—yeesh). While it’s still yet to be figured out if that’ll work for Williams in the NFL, what he’ll have to learn is that he’ll have to take the single or double, not turning every play into a TikTok highlight reel.
I say all of that just to also say: look man if it works the way it did in college then more power to him. I think this is the perfect encapsulation of Caleb Williams as a passer at this current moment. The Bears call a bench concept to Williams’ left, with the tight end running a short hook route and backside dig by the receiver to his right. The Bengals cover the bench concept perfectly, but this play still somehow goes for 40+ yards. Is it fair to say Williams should’ve gotten to the backside of this quicker and found the hook route or dig? Sure, that’s where most QBs would go. Does he render it null and void because he can do that? Pretty much.
This is where Williams both thrives and can be better. The growth for Williams will come in the form of just being a step quicker (NFL windows close so much quicker than the fastest college windows) and being able to mitigate pressure and negative plays. The best part about this, though? He’s in a great place to do it. Insulated by a good group of receivers and an offensive line that’s at least capable of playing well, Williams isn’t going to be asked to do the 800 level QB’ing just yet. By giving him situations in designated rollouts where he can use his athleticism and creativity without the threat of complex full field coverage reads, the Bears can ease him into the NFL world and watch him thrive.
BOW BOW BOW BOW(ers)
Brock Bowers represents the forthcoming evolution of the NFL tight end. Coming out of Georgia, he’s generously listed at 6’4 and 230 pounds, but what he brings to the game is a natural feel for receiving and a dynamic ability after the catch. With beefy boy ball coming back into the limelight, 12 (one running back, two tight ends) personnel is all the rage. You can basically play matchup ball based on how defenses defend you. If they want to match your two tight ends with bigger linebackers on the field, then you can throw the ball out of 12 and watch the LBs try and figure out how to defend these guys. On the flip side of that, if teams want to match the offense’s 12 personnel with a slot corner on the field, they run the risk of getting put into the turf in the run game. Last year, the Raiders were near the bottom of the league in 12 personnel usage (per Sumer Sports), but with Bowers that looks to change. Although he’s only played one game in the preseason for Vegas due to injury, how the Raiders moved him around showcases a really fun glimpse into his future in Vegas and what the offense can do with him as the queen on their chessboard.
Against the Vikings, this is Bowers’ snap count by alignment, via Pro Football Focus. As you can see, it’s a charcuterie board of various alignments and positions on the field. What this does is both accentuates his strengths as a receiver and after the catch, while hiding his deficiencies as a blocker (which aren’t even that massive, he’s just on the smaller side for a tight end). Bowers spent most of the game off the ball or detached from the line of scrimmage, which helps in creating advantageous angles for him as a blocker. By placing him off ball, the Raiders allow him to generate more force through acceleration through pure mass (shoutout Isaac Newton). I think Bowers and the receiver messed up the blocking assignments on this power rep, but you can see where the Raiders’ vision is with Bowers. He’s lined up at FULLBACK here, and this gives Bowers a runway to success as a blocker.
Where Bowers won a lot in college as a blocker was on split zone concepts where he was slicing back across the formation from off the ball. By doing this, Bowers has a more advantageous situation where he can either slice back into the passing concept, or use his momentum to block free edge rushers.
All of this is taking place while the Minnesota Vikings are in their base personnel (three down linemen, two edge rushers, two linebackers), which will come into play as we get into the passing game.
Bowers is a matchup nightmare as a receiver, a true threat after the catch who can win on manufactured touches as well as creating separation. What Las Vegas did in Minnesota was design Bowers touches where his ability after the catch is highlighted, but out of various alignments. Normally, you see a tight end run the clear out route for the wide receiver to run underneath. The Raiders flip this, with Bowers lined up out wide and he comes underneath the clear out route and moves the chains against man coverage. Note, a corner is defending Bowers here with the Vikings in base.
Another one where Bowers doesn’t get the target, but he’s lined up out wide in 12 personnel. Again, Minnesota is in base, the problem the Raiders can force upon defenders with Bowers.
Here’s some Bowers at fullback for your viewing pleasure as well. You can see the bind that it puts the linebackers in. They’re in a five man front, meaning someone from the line has to drop. You can see the hesitation between the edge defender and off ball linebacker as Bowers runs into the flat. It leaves him wide open, and from there he can be a weapon with the ball after the catch.
To put it quite simply, the Raiders need Brock Bowers to be good. They haven’t hit on a first round pick—or any pick for in that case—in a very long time, and Bowers becoming a legitimate threat at tight end would work wonders for this offense. As the NFL gets bigger offensively, Bowers finds himself coming on at the perfect time, the true definition of a “move” tight end.
Weaving the Dolphins’ defense
I was really intrigued by the hiring of Anthony Weaver to coach the Miami Dolphins’ defense, for a multitude of reasons. It’s the first branch of the Mike MacDonald tree (I know, I know, the defense didn’t start with him but for the purpose of this exercise I’ll start here), which seems to be the new defense putting the hotshot McVay/Shanahan acolytes in hell, but it also feels like a perfect coach-team fit. The Dolphins’ defense is far too talented to finish 16th in EPA per play allowed in 2023, and 13th in EPA per pass, and with Weaver calling the plays, I’m excited how he brings the MacDonald style of defense to Miami. What I love about this defense is their ability to generate pressure without devoting too many numbers to the blitz. The way they do this is through simulated pressures, looks that show maybe 7 or 8 people blitz but only four do. The problem is, you don’t know which four are coming. This causes chaos up front, and gives the defense advantageous matchups in a lot of different places.
In their first preseason game against Atlanta, Weaver does a great job changing the picture post-snap and gets QB Michael Penix Jr. to throw a quicker route into the flat, where the defense has the advantage. Up front, he uses a pick between the linebacker and DT to get a nice situation for his lineman, but the RB makes a great block. Overall great process leading to a good result.
What MacDonald did so well in Baltimore, and what Weaver is hoping to accomplish in Miami, is using simulated pressure and creepers to cause havoc, while still keeping things simple for his own team. In order to bring a second level guy, you gotta drop a first level guy; it’s the law of equivalent exchange, shoutout to Fullmetal Alchemist. Here, the Dolphins are adding a second level defender and dropping a first level one, but you never know which one it’ll be. Watch the entire play. The QB goes to make a check at the line and points out the man the RB should pick up in the protection (he ends up sprinting into the flat). However, the Dolphins run a twist up front and get enough pressure to force the QB to check it down right into a waiting defender’s vicinity. Miami brings the DB from the offense’s left, and in exchange drops the backside EDGE and runs Cover 2. Not the flashiest play, but it works well.
Why I think I’m higher than most on the Dolphins’ defense this year is because I think the personnel fits this defense so much better, starting at the linebacker position. Nabbing Jordyn Brooks from Seattle in free agency was great business, and his ability to be a multifaceted tool for this defense plays well with LB David Long, who is more of a hammer coming downhill against the run and as a blitzer. They’ve shown flashes of playing on a string together, and it looks real sweet.
The Dolphins host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, and with a QB like Trevor Lawrence coming to town, being able to show him multiple pictures should help them manufacture pressure while star pass rusher Jaelan Phillips still eases back into playing speed. I’m excited for Weaver to get a chance to display what he’s learned from Baltimore.
