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Things will only go according to plan in one region, but which one will that be?
We’ve only gone a couple of days without NCAA tournament basketball, but it feels like a lifetime.
The madness returns on Thursday night, and continues for four days until our quartet of national semifinalists will have revealed themselves. Let’s make some predictions on who those four teams will be.
Region: South
The Pick: No. 1 Alabama
When the brackets were released two Sundays ago, Alabama seemed like the safest bet of the four No. 1 seeds to at least make it to the Elite Eight. With the 2, 3 and 4 seeds in the region all eliminated before the tournament’s second weekend, the Crimson Tide are now an overwhelming favorite to advance to the Final Four for the first time in program history.
‘Bama didn’t get much resistance from either of its first two opponents — Texas A&M Corpus-Christi and Maryland — but there is still a bit of cause for concern after the tournament’s opening weekend.
Star freshman Brandon Miller has been dealing with a groin injury that clearly affected him in each of the first two NCAA tournament games. He went scoreless in the first round game and finished the first weekend just 5-of-17 (29.4 percent) shooting from the field.
Alabama head coach Nate Oats said Miller didn’t practice at all on Monday and practiced lightly on Tuesday, but still believes the All-American will be 100% or close to it by the time the team’s Friday night game rolls around. A long as that’s the case, the Tide are a safe bet to handle San Diego State’s defensive pressure, and then outscore Creighton (if the ‘Jays can take care of Princeton) in what would be a highly entertaining up-and-down affair in the regional final.
Region: East
The East was always the region with the most potential to go haywire, and it certainly lived up to that billing. Purdue became the second No. 1 seed ever to lose in the first round, No. 2 seed Marquette got bounced in the second, and the trendy betting pick in the region, red-hot Duke, only managed to score 52 points in its second round loss to Tennessee.
You can make a case for each of the four teams still standing, but let’s use some common sense here. Florida Atlantic is in the Sweet 16 for the first time ever, Kansas State has overachieved dramatically this season but still has a first-year head coach, Tennessee and Rick Barnes have become known primarily in recent years for their NCAA tournament disappointments … and then there’s Tom Izzo, the man who has been to eight Final Fours and pulled the most upsets (16) of any coach in the history of the NCAA tournament.
Michigan State was stellar in its first two tournament wins over USC and Marquette. Tyson Walker has stepped up to be the star guard every team needs in March, and the team is playing like a cohesive unit defensively, forcing a combined 27 turnovers in rounds one and two.
Every single Final Four but one since 2012 has featured at least one team seeded No. 7 or worse. Since 2011, a total of 10 teams seeded seventh or worse have crashed the season’s final weekend.
The last time Izzo took a 7-seed to the second weekend? They ended up advancing to the 2015 Final Four.
It all just makes too much sense. Michigan State will win this region, and the “Izzo in March” takes will be flying fast and furiously next week as the team gets ready to head to Houston.
Region: Midwest
The Pick: No. 2 Texas
The Midwest is the chalkiest region of the second weekend, with only fifth-seeded Miami technically out of place. Even then, the Hurricanes are loaded with guard talent, blasted fourth-seeded Indiana in the second round, and have the mental advantage of having played in a regional final last season.
As impressive as Houston’s second half against Auburn last Sunday was, there’s no question that the top-seeded Cougars are banged up. All-American Marcus Sasser has been dealing with a goin injury that kept him out of the American Athletic tournament title game and very clearly bothered him in Houston’s first two NCAA tournament contests. Backcourt mate Jamal Shead hurt his knee in the team’s first round win and was affected by it during the Auburn victory. Unless both players are close to 100 percent, it’s going to be an uphill climb for Kelvin Sampson’s club to win back-to-back games in Kansas City.
The team that stands to benefit the most from Houston’s health issues is Texas, which just won the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City two weeks ago. The Longhorns are also loaded with guard talent, but play nine players who average 11 minutes or more of court time per contest. Being the deepest team in the region is a huge advantage when facing a rail-thin Xavier team that only goes six deep in the Sweet 16, and then potentially a wounded Houston team two days later.
UT made just one three-pointer in its second round game against Penn State, but still advanced thanks primarily to the stellar play of forward Dylan Disu. It’s a safe bet that the Longhorn guards won’t misfire like that again in this tournament, and when you pair that with the team’s overall depth and Disu playing the best basketball of his life, they’re the pick to win two more games and claim the Midwest regional title.
Region: West
The Pick: No. 4 UConn
This is the showcase region. Of the four teams still standing that have won a national championship before, three of them are in the West Region. The region also possesses the highest level of individual talent (‘sup, Arkansas?) and probably the two sexiest regional semifinal matchups.
It’s not hard to see any of these four teams make it out of this region (I think all of them would win the East Region), but I’m sticking with my pre-tournament national champion pick UConn here.
Outside of their first 10 minutes or so against Saint Mary’s, the Huskies were a machine in the tournament’s opening weekend. They took a talented Iona team’s best shot and brushed them aside with a 24-point win, and then steamrolled a different Gaels team in the second round that had just looked wildly impressive in their first round win over VCU.
Adama Sanogo was an absolute beast last weekend, Jordan Hawkins found his shooting touch from the outside in the second half of the Saint Mary’s game, and collectively, UConn has the size, skill and style to make Arkansas uncomfortable in a way that Kansas could not. The Huskies are 28-2 when they hold teams to below 47.0 percent shooting from the field and 0-5 when they do not. Arkansas has failed to shoot 47.0 percent from the field in five of its last six games.
UCLA, like Houston, has played well but has injury concerns. Gonzaga has a star inside in Drew Timme, but doesn’t have the guard play that Connecticut does.
The Huskies are the pick here.
