Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Anthony Edwards has another leap in him this season.
After wowing in the first round of the 2023 Playoffs and during the FIBA Basketball World Cup, the NBA world seems ready to crown Anthony Edwards as the next two-way two-guard to be the face of the league.
His combination of speed, athleticism, and fire has led many to compare him to new Hall of Fame inductee Dwyane Wade. However, despite their surface-level similarities, the last version of Edwards we saw on an NBA floor still had a ways to go before he could match the impact of one of the greatest guards to ever do it.
But now that there is a new season upon us, Edwards has a chance to close the gap and live up to this lofty comparison. Now the question becomes: what parts of his game does he need to improve to do it?
Efficiency
Last season, Edwards posted a career-high in True Shooting at 56.4 percent. But even that mark was below the league average in this category (58.1 percent in 2022-23). In fact, in none of Edwards’ first three seasons has he been able to rank at or above the league average in efficiency.
Juxtapose this with his predecessor, who came into the league scoring slightly above the league average before settling in at about three or four percentage points above the league average in true shooting for most of his prime (which usually landed him somewhere in the 70th-80th percentile in scoring efficiency in those seasons).
One of the major reasons for this disparity is Wade’s edge as a finisher. According to Cleaning the Glass, Wade placed in the 82nd percentile or higher in rim accuracy for his position every year from 2004 to 2010. Meanwhile, Edwards has never placed higher than the 52nd percentile.
Almost from the moment he entered the association, Wade had mastered the art of driving to and finishing at the rim. He had the perfect combination of speed, strength, control, footwork, handle, and vision. And he used all these attributes to become one of the best rim finishers the game has ever seen.
Compare this with Edwards, who still needs to work on alternating speeds, knowing when to pass out of traffic, and absorbing and finishing through contact (instead of falling over and hoping for a foul).
These minor wrinkles are what creates the differences in their finishing numbers. The good news, though, is that young ball handlers tend to increase their finishing percentages as they enter their mid-20s (a perfect example of this is Donovan Mitchell).
The other thing dragging Edwards’ efficiency back is his free throw rates. He had a career high in 2022-23 (7.1 FTA per 100 possessions), but that number pales in comparison to Wade’s best seasons (14.8 per 100 in 2006-07).
Some of this has to do with the control variable we hinted at a second ago. As a general rule, the less in control you look on your forays to the hoop, the less likely that referees will grant you a favorable whistle. It makes sense when you think about it. How can a referee be sure that a defender impeded your path to the rim if you looked out of control in the first place?
With that said, Wade also generated a ton of free throws with his jumper. Wade was always a potent midrange shooter (particularly from the short midrange). So, when he pump-faked in that area, defenders were more prone to take his bait, which gave him the chance to lean into them and grift a foul. Like this:
Now, Wade didn’t reinvent the wheel with this tactic. Many great midrange maestros (Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, DeMar DeRozan, etc.) turn to this parlor trick to help juice their free throw rates (and thereby their efficiency). But since Edwards is currently a poor midrange shooter (29th percentile among wings last season), this efficiency booster isn’t yet available to him.
Passing
Along with being a great scorer, Wade was also a splendid passer. He used his downhill penetration to collapse defenses and create the same shots for his teammates as he was for himself (i.e., shots at the rim). From 2004-10, Wade tallied the eighth-most rim assists (1115 rim assists) of any player during that stretch of time (per PBP Stats).
According to Ben Taylor’s Passer Rating metric (an estimate of a player’s passing ability on an ‘approximately’ 1-10 scale), Wade scored somewhere between a 5.9 to an 8 in this measure every year from 2004-10 (which put him somewhere between the 80th and 97th percentile during those seasons). Edwards, on the other hand, had a Passer Rating of 4.8 in 2022-23 (50th percentile). And he only ranks 54th in rim assists in the years he’s been a member of the league (2020-23).
It’s important to note, however, that Wade also started off slow as a facilitator, posting a 4.6 Passer Rating (57th percentile in 2003-04) in his age-22 season (the year Edwards is entering right now). On top of that, as is the case with finishing, ball handlers also tend to improve as passers over time.
Playing Off the Ball
One of the common criticisms surrounding Edwards right now is that, while he has the tools to be a good off-ball player on paper (he’s got slashing and catch-and-shoot capabilities), he often appears disengaged when the ball isn’t in his hand. The numbers seem to back this up, as his efficiency decreases when he’s sharing the floor with other high-end offensive players like Karl-Anthony Towns, Mike Conley, and D’Angelo Russell.
Not playing well alongside other good offensive players puts a hard ceiling on your team’s overall offensive efficiency. Last year, the Minnesota Timberwolves were in just the 57th percentile in Offensive Rating when Edwards was on the floor.
During his famous 2005-06 campaign, Wade’s Miami Heat were in the 95th percentile in Offensive Rating when he was gracing the hardwood. Some of this has to do with Miami sporting superior personnel. But a lot of their success was powered by Wade’s ability to blend his efficient on-ball scoring and playmaking with equally dynamic off-ball offense.
He could never shoot from three and space the floor like Edwards. But what Wade lacked in 3-point shooting, he made up for in constant motion and elite decisiveness. This next sequence illustrates this sentiment perfectly.
Here, he sets a down screen before stepping up to receive the ball himself. From there, he initiates a pick and roll, immediately gets off the ball when he realizes nothing was there, flows right back into a dribble handoff action, and hits the roller (yes, that’s Udonis Haslem) after he lures in two defenders.
The faster you can read and react to what’s going on around you, the easier it is for you to play with other high-level offensive players. Wade was practically the Eastern Conference’s version of Manu Ginobili in this regard during his heyday. And on top of that, he was a great cutter, closeout attacker, and connective tissue passer (all skills Edwards can look to improve on himself).
Defense
Edwards has the physical wherewithal to be as good of a perimeter defender as anyone in the league. He’s got the size and speed to engulf ball handlers at the point of attack, oftentimes taking opponents lunch money more frequently than even the baddest bullies at James K. Polk Middle School. And he’s also one of the best at his position at acquiring blocks (90th percentile in 22-23) and steals (85th percentile). This is not unlike Wade, who spent a great deal of his prime as one of the best on-ball stoppers and defensive playmakers of the mid-2000s.
The difference between these two, at this point, lies in their off-ball awareness. The book on Edwards last season was that he was super engaged and locked in when he was involved in the immediate action, but that he would tend to lose focus when he was away from it. That wasn’t a problem for Prime Wade.
Yes, the clips above are isolated incidents, and it would be no great feat to curate a side-by-side like this that demonstrates the opposite point. But even when you compare their one-number defensive metrics and defensive on/off splits, the data points to Wade being a significantly better defender than last season’s version of Edwards.
Edwards looked like a legit All-Star at the end of last season. That’s no question. But if he’s going to turn himself into a legitimate MVP candidate (like Wade was at his peak), he’ll need to improve his scoring efficiency, playmaking, off-ball offense, and defensive focus.
Those improvements certainly aren’t out of the realm of possibility. We’ve been alluding to this fact the entire time, but Edwards is still just 22. Wade was in his mid-20s during most of the seasons we cited. Edwards can make these changes. And if he does, he’ll be the latest torchbearer in the storied lineage of great two-way shooting guards.
