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NFL Draft Combine drills aren’t created equal. Here’s how to watch like a pro
The NFL Combine is finally upon us. Scouts, coaches, GMs and other decision-makers have flocked to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to watch as some of the top prospects go through testing, medicals, and interviews in hopes of being one of the 250+ players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
However, we’re seeing more and more coaches skip the Combine because they have better tracking data. Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has been one of the advocates for using GPS tracking to get prospects’ real-time numbers in games or in football situations rather than relying on 40-yard dash time. It’s how 2021 Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp fell to Los Angeles on Day 2 of the draft once upon a time, and we know how that story went.
Despite the overall malaise towards the NFL Combine and what prospects should actually be doing, there is some good that can be gleaned from all the fat that comes with it being a scheduled TV program for the entire week. There are certain themes that can be taken from the workouts the players get put through at the Combine and discussed for actual good, numbers that can back up what you see on film. It’s important to remember that point: the Combine and athletic testing is used to help verify what you saw on tape, or force you to go back and re-evaluate what you saw based on their testing.
Here’s how you can watch at home and get smarter about what you’re seeing at the Combine.
40-Yard Dash
Why it Matters
This is the Combine’s version of what the dunk contest used to be on All-Star Saturday Night. This is what everyone gets excited for and what most prospects make or break their draft stock on. 40 yards between them and a big contract at the highest level of the sport. No pressure, right?
Although the 40 can be a good test of true long speed, the chances that most prospects are running in a straight line without anyone chasing them or in a sterilized area are very, very slim. It’s why McVay and the Rams have been so adamant about using GPS tracking which is a better tool to track how fast these players are in true game situations. What the 40-yard dash is useful for, and the numbers that can be gleaned from this, is for the 10 and 20-yard splits.
Football is a game of bursts and explosions, players exerting maximum force and energy for a span of maybe 5-7 seconds. How quickly you can go from 0-60 in those first 10-20 yards is what scouts can use to judge explosiveness and burst, important for pass catchers and defensive linemen. Their ability to get upfield in the first 10-20 yards to create separation is more important than any 40 number, because how often is a defensive lineman going to be running 40 yards in a straight line?
Why it Doesn’t Matter
Again, the odds of a player running in a straight line for 40 yards on a down-by-down basis in the NFL is very slim. Of course, there are receivers who can use that to legitimize their deep speed, but not every player has to use the 40 time as the end all be all for their evaluation. If they’re fast on tape in game speed, they’re probably fast in real life as well. Just ask Cooper Kupp, or Puka Nacua.
Bench Press
Why it Matters
Uhhh…well…it’s really cool to see strong people do strong people things? In all seriousness, it’s a good indicator of upper body strength.
Why it Doesn’t Matter
The bench press exercise, while a very good one for the development of muscles in the chest and triceps area, doesn’t take into account of arm length. The longer your arms are, the longer distance you have to push the weight up and down. In 2022, now-Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton summed it up perfectly:
Length wins. First significant contact. Bench press winners = short arms.
— Sean Payton (@SeanPayton) March 5, 2022
The act of stacking and shedding for defensive linemen is important, but getting a better gauge of that outside of the bench press has to be on the table for scouts at the Combine. A suggestion would be to use the Power Clean, where most of the force and movement is coming from the hips, which is similar to what most college strength programs use and similar to the movements you see on a snap-to-snap basis. It’s not that the bench press is bad, but it’s just not a great measure of overall football strength.
In addition, you rarely see the best testers in the bench press having extended careers. Dawgs By Nature did a great piece on why the bench press isn’t necessarily the greatest indicator of success, with few of those guys sticking around in the league for a long time. It’s very cool to see, but not a lock for NFL success.
Vertical Jump
Why it Matters
The vertical jump is one of the best ways to judge explosiveness in the lower body. The ability to generate force to get as high as possible off the ground in a short period of time is crucial for a sport that’s built on those explosive movements. Think about wide receivers like Ja’Marr Chase, who despite being measured at 6’0 at his Pro Day, jumped 41 inches. We see that explosion both after the catch and to go up and get the ball despite being a smaller receiver.
Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku jumped 37.5 inches, which put him in the 90th percentile for all tight ends. That explosion that you see after the catch and through the catch point is found both on film and at the NFL Combine.
Why it Doesn’t Matter
The Vertical jump is useful, but can’t be the end all, be all when it comes to explosiveness testing. That’s because the vertical jump only tests explosiveness in that one plane: vertical. According to a study done in 2007 by Akinori Nagano, Taku Komura and Senshi Fukashiro, while the quads, glutes, hamstrings and calves are activated in a vertical jump, jumping out along the horizontal plane is also needed to determine explosiveness because those hip joint muscles like the hamstrings and glutes are even more activated when using the hips to launch yourself in the horizontal plane, which sounds a lot like the next athletic test we’re about to talk about.
Broad Jump
Why it Matters
Shakira wasn’t wrong when she said hips don’t lie. The hips and hip joint are where the upper and lower body connect, and being able to sink your hips and generate explosion out is evident in a lot of aspects of playing football. Think about a proper tackle; the hips are creating that violent force that propels the body forward into making a tackle. One of the best tacklers in the current NFL game is Jets LB Quincy Williams and his 10’04 broad jump gave him a Relative Athletic Score of 9.27 out of 10, really good for the LB spot. The hips are the key to unlocking the full athletic capabilities in the NFL game, and the broad jump helps to test that.
Why it Doesn’t Matter
Same as the vertical jump, because it only tests in one plane you can’t build your entire scouting base off of this one jump.
Three-Cone Drill
Why it Matters
Change of direction, baby! Because of how the drill is set up, this tests prospects’ ability to sink their hips and change their direction in a short period of time. How they navigate turning around the cones without losing speed is a good indication of their ability to turn and change directions at the NFL level. This is where most offensive linemen will begin to shine, with their ability to change direction without losing control and movement in space being tested here.
Why it Doesn’t Matter
Well … Seahawks WR DK Metcalf kind of answered that. At the NFL Combine in 2019, his three-cone was absolutely horrendous for a wide receiver. The time of 7.38 was in the third percentile for all receivers who ever tested at the combine, which is historically bad. However, that poor three-cone hasn’t stopped him from being a great receiver in the NFL, specifically at a couple of things: running fast vertically and jumping very high.
This is where the scouting has to meet context for what this player does. Coming out of college, Metcalf wasn’t the route-running separator type of receiver, he was more of a go-up and get the ball or run past the DB player. The Seahawks had a need for that, and haven’t really made him try to be anything else that doesn’t fit his athletic toolbox. That’s where the rubber has to meet the road for evaluation. Sure this guy might not be good at this aspect of the game, but if he fills a specific need, he’s worth picking for your team.
20-yard shuttle
Why it Matters
Again, change of direction in a specific amount of space. The way the drill is set up is so players will start in the middle, then have to run laterally five yards, touch the line at the five yards, run ten yards to the opposite cone and touch the line, then finish through. This is truly a great test for offensive linemen. This measures agility, body control and change of direction, all of which are important in a lot of zone running schemes up front. Underdog Fantasy’s Josh Norris outlined the critical importance of the 20-yard shuttle, and the trend that we’ve seen among drafting offensive linemen.
Being able to move in space is important, and the short shuttle is a great measurement of that.
Why it Doesn’t Matter
Again, it depends on the type of player that you want in your room. If a guy isn’t that great moving laterally, it doesn’t mean they’re going to be a bad player for their entire career. We’ve already outlined Metcalf, but Jadeveon Clowney didn’t have the best short shuttle time. His 4.43 put him merely in the 44th percentile, the bottom half of all EDGEs who went to the Combine ever. Yet, he’s carved out a role in the NFL by being a great linear athlete, one who moves well in the vertical plane, and that matters for NFL teams. It just depends on the type of guy that your team needs.
Overall, the NFL Draft Combine drills are important, but they’re not to be treated as law. The Combine is merely a tool that can be used to get a better look and evaluation of a draft prospect and verify his movement skills and explosiveness that they may or may not show on tape. Every team has an athletic testing threshold they use to judge prospects and how they’ll fit into the long-term goals of the franchise. If they might not be good in some other areas but are good in their athletic thresholds, then it’s fine. They have the tools in the toolbox to make those evals and understand how it translates to the NFL game.
Now, you know how to watch it, too.
