Is it time to take Daniel Jones and the Giants seriously?

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

The Giants defied even their own expectations by getting out to a 5-1 start

This was supposed to be a transition year for the New York Giants.

But life has a funny way of changing the narrative.

When Joe Schoen took over as general manager of the Giants, along with new head coach Brian Daboll, they faced the monumental task of turning around a franchise coming off its fifth-straight losing season. The Giants last finished with a winning record back in 2016 under Ben McAdoo, when they lost in the Wild-Card round to the Green Bay Packers. Beyond that, New York’s other most recent playoff appearance came back in 2011, when they finished 9-7 but put together a magical run to a Super Bowl title.

That is a thin postseason resume over the last ten-plus years.

However, when Schoen and Daboll took over last winter, they faced two more immediate questions: How to fix a bleak salary cap position, and what to do with quarterback Daniel Jones, as a decision loomed on his fifth-year option.

The first question seemed like a difficult ask. The Giants needed to trim around $40 million from their roster to get under the salary cap, a requirement seemingly in conflict with a quick turnaround. At the Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, Schoen addressed these issues, both with respect to free agency:

“We’ll start making those soon. We’re still meeting this afternoon into tomorrow, but it’s kind of ‘if this happens, then this.’ There’s a lot of contingency plans that weigh on some of the decisions that we’re going to make. We’re getting together with some of the agents of the players on our current roster and starting some initial conversations on different things. But sooner than later, we’ll start making the necessary moves to get under the salary cap and start planning for the 2022 season.”

And the overall salary cap health of the organization:

“We’re still working through that, but I’m open to everything. Whether it’s trading player for player, I’ll listen to anybody. If it’s trading a couple of players, I’m not going to say we’re open for business on the entire roster, but if anybody is going to call and they’re interested in any of our players, I’ll certainly listen. Again, we’re in a situation where unfortunately we have to get under the salary cap and we’re not in very good salary cap health. I’m not going to say yes to every deal, but I’m definitely going to listen and I’ll be open to the situations that are best for the New York Giants.”

Regarding Jones, both Schoen and Daboll said all the right things about their incumbent starting quarterback in Indianapolis, with Schoen saying that he was their starting quarterback “right now.” But the new general manager deflected questions about his fifth-year option at the time, noting that the new front office had only been together for a few weeks. “We’re still working through all that. We’re going to be patient and go through the process.”

On the bright side, New York entered the draft with two of the top-seven selections in the first round, giving the Giants the chance to add two premier talents at the top of the draft. They did just that a few months later, adding pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux — a player many expected to be the first player off the board back in the fall — with the fifth selection, and then offensive tackle Evan Neal in the seventh spot.

But the salary cap considerations forced difficult decisions on some veterans. Players like James Bradberry and Logan Ryan were released to create cap space during the offseason, and linebacker Blake Martinez was released at the start of the year when the Giants still needed to create more room.

With respect to Jones, the team did what many expected, and declined his fifth-year option.

Even with the addition of young talent, the picture seemed bleak at the start of the year. Take it from the GM himself:

Fast forward six weeks, and the Giants, those same Giants, sit at 5-1 in the NFC East, in second place behind the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. While there is a lot of football left to be played, if the playoffs began today, the Giants would be the fifth-seed in the NFC, facing a trip to the West Coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers during Wild-Card weekend.

That is a far cry from what most expected at the start of the year, including perhaps Schoen himself.

How did the Giants get here, and what might this mean for Jones’ future in New York?

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Let’s deal with the first question. There is no denying that the Giants, thanks to last year’s finish, have some easier stretches on their schedule. Yes, the Giants are 5-1, but that is after a slate of games against opponents with a combined 16-19 record. That will continue over the next two weeks, as the Giants face the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Seattle Seahawks, teams with a combined 5-7 record. Meaning that the Giants have a chance to enter their bye week with a 7-1 record, having played teams with — at this point — a combined 21-26 record.

To be fair, you can only play who is on your schedule, and winning games in the NFL is difficult regardless of the opponent. But things will get tougher for New York after the bye week. Down the stretch, as the Giants hope to be jockeying for playoff position, they will face teams with a combined record — at this moment — of 30-20-2. That includes a game against the Dallas Cowboys, a game against the Minnesota Vikings (currently 5-1) and a pair of games against the currently undefeated Eagles.

Yes you can only play who is on your schedule, however the Giants’ schedule gets a bit tougher over the next two months.

Putting the schedule issue aside, however, what New York has done to date is largely on the backs of their offense. Daboll, given what he accomplished with the Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen, was viewed as an offensive-minded coach responsible at least in part for Allen’s growth as a quarterback. The Giants were not the only team seeking his services, as both the Miami Dolphins and the New Orleans Saints were in the mix.

Daboll’s main issue on the offensive side of the ball was to, well, generate some offense. During the 2021 season, the Giants averaged just 15.2 points per game, 31st in the league. They were dead last in points per drive, averaging just 1.31 points per drive.

Right now? The Giants average 21.2 points per game, placing them 18th in the league. They also average 2.02 points per drive, 14th in the league. A vast improvement in both categories over last season.

Viewing the Giants’ offense in terms of efficiency, New York was one of the worst teams in the league last year in Expected Points Added per Rush, and Expected Points Added per dropback, courtesy of RBSDM.com:

Bottom left is not where you want to be on a graphic like this one. You want to be in the upper-right quadrant.

Where are the Giants right now? Funny you should ask:

There they are, in the upper-right quadrant, along with some of the NFL’s best offenses this season. And some surprises as well, such as Atlanta, but we can address that at another time.

Something else that is notable? Take a quick look at the EPA/dropback numbers from last year to this year. Last year the league average was around 0.06 per dropback. This year, that number is closer to 0. Yet more evidence that defenses might have figured some things out over the offseason …

Part of their success on offense has come in the running game. New York’s overall EPA/play of 0.053 is currently eighth in the league, and their rush EPA/play of -0.002 is ranked ninth in the league. As we outlined a few weeks ago, having a healthy Saquon Barkley back could be a big reason for that success. Barkley looks like the player the Giants drafted second overall during the 2018 Draft, and Daboll is finding more ways to get him involved in the rushing attack, including usage out of Wildcat packages.

But more surprising is the success in the passing game. New York’s EPA/dropback through six weeks is 0.092, ranking the Giants 11th in the league in that category.

Leading us to Jones himself.

Through six games, Jones has completed 67.3% of his passes for 1,021 yards and 5 touchdowns, against just 2 interceptions. That low interception number is a good starting point, as Jones’ interception percentage of 1.3% is currently the best mark of his career, surpassing the 1.9% from a year ago. It is also one of the best percentages in the league, ranking him sixth in the NFL.

Right now, Jones is confident in what he is doing, and trusts what he is seeing. That translates to success in the passing game, and efficiency for the offense. You can see it in his play, particularly from last Sunday in New York’s win over the Baltimore Ravens. Jones delivered three big third-down conversions in the win, with one of them this tough throw on a 3rd and 12 to move the chains:

A few things stand out on this conversion to Wan’Dale Robinson. First, Jones’ eyes. As you can see from the end zone angle, he opens first to his left, peeking at the single-receiver matchup on that side of the field. Not liking the look, Jones snaps his eyes to the middle of the field, where rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger — a fourth-round pick — is running a crossing route. Jones comes off of that route and hits Robinson on his whip/under route to move the chains. The ability to work through these reads quickly, and make this throw, is a sign of a confident quarterback trusting his surroundings.

Beyond his eyes, is management of the pocket. On this play Jones does one of the toughest, and most unnatural, things a quarterback is asked to do: Climb the pocket in the face of pressure. With the right edge starting to soften, Jones climbs the pocket, bringing himself closer to yet more danger. But that is the job, and he does the job to perfection on this play.

Jones’ ability to handle pressure this season is certainly notable, beyond this one play. According to Pro Football Focus charting data, Jones has posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 78.7% this season when pressured.

The best in the league.

Returning to the Ravens game and the above play, New York would tie the game a few snaps later, with Jones hitting Robinson for a short touchdown pass.

In the second half, Jones converted another third down with confidence, as he connects with Marcus Johnson on this beautifully designed play:

Again, what stands out from Jones are his eyes, his pocket management, and his overall confidence on this play. He climbs the pocket once more, confident in the protection around him, and keeps his eyes trained towards the middle of the field. As he climbs, he is fluid on his feet, and only at the last moment does he snap his eyes towards the right side of the field, picking up Johnson’s deeper crossing route. Jones puts the throw right on him, and the Giants have another set of downs.

Perhaps his best throw from Sunday came a few plays later, and it serves as more evidence of his growth as a quarterback. On this design, the Giants try and dial up a “peel” — post/wheel — concept to the right side of the field. Darius Slayton runs a post route from the outside (which he stays vertical on when the safety walls him off to the inside) while Bellinger runs a wheel route.

Seeing that concept covered, Jones again hangs tough in the pocket, getting his eyes to the backside dig from Robinson:

These three examples are the kinds of plays Jones was not hitting consistently during the past few seasons.

He is hitting them now.

We began this piece looking at the two pressing questions facing the new regime in New York: How to manage the cap, and what to do with Jones. Schoen made some difficult decisions — leading to his comments right before the season began that did not exactly instill confidence — and the Giants are in a better financial position at the moment. They also declined that fifth-year option on Jones.

They are now 5-1, and the future of Jones in New York looks a little different right now. While it was almost conventional wisdom over the summer that the Giants would struggle, end up with a top-five pick, and have perhaps their choice of quarterback in what looks to be a deeper class, that conventional wisdom might have shifted over these past few weeks.

Because right now, the Giants are estimated to have the 28th pick in the first round. That is not exactly QB1 territory.

Again, it is not even Halloween. The Giants could still end up down that path, as their schedule after the bye week is, as outlined, much different than the schedule they have faced to date. But with their offense playing the way it has, with Barkley healthy, and with Jones looking like a more confident quarterback than he has in recent years, there is a chance the Giants can actually avoid that road, keeping themselves in contention down the stretch.

If so, Jones might indeed buy himself another season or two in New York. Perhaps on a short-term deal while the Giants add a quarterback on the second day of the draft as a potential hedge against Jones.

A narrative we did not imagine last spring.