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Lakers-Nuggets will be decided by Nikola Jokic vs. Anthony Davis adjustments

Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Here are the outside-the-box tactics to watch in the Lakers vs. Nuggets Western Conference Finals.

They say that a playoff series doesn’t begin until the first adjustment is made.

The postseason is like a giant game of chess, with tactical strategies being levied both ways throughout the course of a best-of-seven war. The final four teams standing all have a good amount of versatility on offense and defense; they can win a game in a variety of ways. That should make for some fantastic tactics and tricks, especially aimed at taking away the incredible star power that every team boasts.

Throw out the regular season matchups between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. They don’t and won’t mean much. Since their battles during the 2022-23 season, the Lakers have completely revamped this roster into the juggernaut that has them in the Western Conference Finals. Surrounding LeBron James and Anthony Davis are more specialty shooters, other big wings with varying impacts, and a coach who has learned how to unlock all their superpowers on the fly.

This Nuggets team is no slouch on defense, either. Despite being league-average throughout the regular season, the team has been buoyed by Nikola Jokic and his semi-aggressive ball screen defense. Both teams have aces up their sleeves to utilize and can do a fair amount of cross-matching in the frontcourt, making this an incredibly fun series for X’s and O’s nerds like myself.

Denver Nuggets: Put Aaron Gordon on Anthony Davis

The Lakers’ offense really revolves around their two star players in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. LeBron is strong, smart, and versatile enough to get his in different ways. Davis, however, needs a little more planning to get the ball in space, and Darvin Ham has frequently utilized ball screens to best capture AD’s athleticism.

The Nuggets have been playing Nikola Jokic higher against ball screens, letting him come out with soft shows before recovering to the paint. The Nuggets have a ton of smart, experienced rotation defenders on their roster and cover-up ball movement designed to capitalize on the tagging that goes into taking away the Davis’ roll.

If Denver wants to avoid rotation altogether, they can go with a seldom-used strategy that worked in small doses during the Phoenix Suns series: let Aaron Gordon guard Anthony Davis and put Jokic off-ball, likely onto one of Jarred Vanderbilt or Rui Hachimura.

Go back to Game 2 of the Suns series and you’ll see Nuggets coach Michael Malone try this late, putting Jokic on Josh Okogie. The switching worked because Jokic, staying close to the rim as a helper, would scram onto the rolling DeAndre Ayton and free his teammate from a physical mismatch:

The Suns did adjust and used Jokic’s man to set those high picks. If this is Hachimura, Vanderbilt, or even a guy like Troy Brown Jr., the Nuggets likely don’t fear him on the short roll. While the danger can be seen from what happens in that Suns Game 2 if a short roller gets momentum to the rim, Denver does have other strategies to make this work and blanket Jokic from switches or prevent wide-open rim attacks.

The Nuggets defense deserves a hell of a lot more credit than it gets. Jokic has been solid, Malone has been creative, and the rest of the players on the roster know their role. We’ve seen Anthony Davis be able to take over games with his strong isolation play and pick-and-roll finishing prowess. Perhaps letting Aaron Gordon take that responsibility keeps Denver’s offensive engine a little fresher for late-game production.

Los Angeles Lakers: Let AD roam

While the Lakers-Nuggets games from earlier in the season aren’t indicative of much, Darvin Ham can take inspiration from seeing how other teams have played the two-time MVP effectively. Let’s be clear from the outset: there isn’t a way to stop Jokic, just to slow him down or choose how and if other players are going to beat you.

Back during the regular season, the Nuggets had an NBA Saturday showdown with the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly chose to put PJ Tucker onto Jokic, saving Joel Embiid for roaming responsibilities down low. Embiid would guard either Aaron Gordon or Bruce Brown. Elbow and top-of-the-key touches for Jokic were more interrupted, as the length and quickness combination of Tucker threw off his plans. Jokic finished the game with seven turnovers.

What we also saw during the Western Conference Semifinals was the impact that Anthony Davis can have while stationed closer to the rim. He’s a sensational rim protector from the weak side and a terrific deterrent of shots at the hoop.

Davis likes to play in Drop coverage, where he can be more of a roamer near the hoop just scooping up whatever goes his way. That can be a tough strategy against the Nuggets though, where Jamal Murray is a great scorer and Jokic can carve teams up on pocket passes or short rolls.

If the Lakers can’t find success with AD in Drop coverage, they’ll need to consider moving him off-ball. They did this against the Golden State Warriors, as Davis would toggle between guarding Kevon Looney, Gary Payton II, or Andrew Wiggins instead of Draymond Green. That resulted in either more time at the rim or fewer opportunities where Green was setting the screen, thus taking away Golden State’s best short roll playmaker.

The idea here would be the same. If the Nuggets wanted to involve AD in ball screens and pull him away from the rim bad enough, they’d do it with someone who isn’t Jokic — a win for the Lakers. If they don’t and they keep rolling with Jokic in high ball screens, AD is ready to go near the rim.

Denver is better equipped to counter such a coverage than the Warriors. There are fewer non-shooter on their roster, Jokic is smarter at isolating near the elbows. But the right strategy could be a combination of speeding the Joker up with more athleticism on-ball and finding creative ways to let Davis stay as a helper as much as possible.

Where things get so fascinating in this series is the lineup construction. If Vanderbilt is on the floor so that the Lakers can use this cross-matching strategy, it also allows Denver to do the same on the other end, putting Jokic on Vanderbilt and Gordon on Davis like we discussed above. Ham will ultimately have the final say in whether the cross-matching sequences benefit the Lakers or hinder their offense too much. Without Vanderbilt on the floor, it will be pretty difficult to effectively cross-match on Jokic and keep Davis closer to the hoop.

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