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Could this actually happen?
It goes without saying that both Mercedes and Ferrari are a bit of a mess in 2023, and that phraseology is extremely generous. Any hopes of challenging Red Bull this season are out the window, and it’s reached the point where Fernando Alonso’s breakout for Aston Martin has bumped them into second place in the constructors’ championship, leaving two of F1’s most popular teams in their wake.
A shake up is needed — and Ferrari are reportedly interested in putting Lewis Hamilton in the red car next season. How this would look is a bit of a mystery, but there’s one solution that clearly and obviously makes sense: There should be a driver swap of Hamilton for Charles Leclerc.
On the surface this might seem ridiculous. Leclerc is the driver of the future, right? The young star designed to bring Ferrari back to prominence? Well, maybe not. We’re now five years into this experiment, and it just isn’t working out. There are some key reasons why a shake up for both teams would make all the sense in the world and set them up for a new future.
No. 1: Sainz is a better fit for Ferrari
Ferrari is still in turmoil since Mattia Binotti’s retirement before the season, and Leclerc hasn’t looked comfortable in the new car. Last season Charles carried a narrow edge over Carlos Sainz, but that has evaporated in 2023.
Sainz is a better, more patient fit for a team still trying to turn the page and establish its next chapter. We also know that Hamilton is traditionally stoic, excels at not making waves, and is generally much better at being in a place where he can tolerate a rework. In addition, Hamilton’s experience can collaborate with Ferrari to make the team better.
No. 2: Mercedes goes very young, and very brash
Mercedes has engineering issues of their own in 2023, but they’re far less prevalent that those of Ferrari. The team is looking ahead to the future, and what better way than pairing George Russell and Charles Leclerc?
It’s a young, pretty, marketing dream that ushers in a new era of F1 at Mercedes and greatly lessens the blow of saying goodbye to Hamilton. While replacing Lewis isn’t something you can just do easily, it does go a long way to starting a youth movement that can sustain the team for the next decade.
No. 3: Hamilton is the perfect stop-gap while Ferrari decides on their next step
Let’s be real: Hamilton only has a year or two left at best. After that Mercedes needs to look at who they plan to poach.
Right now there’s a bit of a vacuum when it comes to young drivers. The next most-likely candidates to make a switch to a huge team are Lance Stroll, Yuki Tsunoda, or either of McLaren’s struggling youngsters. Nobody from this quartet is ready to move up just yet and carry the load on a top-flight team.
However, if Mercedes made the switch to Leclerc now they’re settled for the future. Meanwhile Ferrari would get a year or two in order to get their car together, before making a big splash on someone like Theo Pourchaire or Frederick Vesti, both of whom are tearing up Formula 2 and seem destined for greatness.
Could a swap like this happen?
Realistically, probably not. Firstly it means Mercedes parting ways with Hamilton, something they’re so loathed to do that they will probably throw as much money as needed to keep him in the fold. Secondly, it would require Ferrari to go with Sainz over Leclerc, which feels impossible as well.
That said, it doesn’t mean this wouldn’t be the best move for both teams. If either want to get it together and try to push Red Bull in 2024 they need to do something different, because the status quo is just allowing for both teams to play third and fourth fiddle at this point.
