Michigan vs. Washington big preview: Meet the teams, coaches, QBs, draft prospects, plus a prediction

Michigan vs. Washington is the national championship college football deserves

It all comes down to this. The final national championship of the four team College Football Playoff era is on Monday night in Houston, with the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines taking on the No. 2 Washington Huskies.

Both teams come in undefeated and looking to win their first national title in a long time. For Michigan, a title would be a crowning achievement for a team that reached the playoff the previous two years but never made it past the semifinal. For Washington, a natty is the finishing touch on a perfect season, and the swan song for a conference on its last legs.

Here’s a primer on everything you need to know before kickoff Monday night.

Washington vs. Michigan: The coaching battle

Since getting hired at Washington after the 2021 season, all Kalen DeBoer has done is win big games. DeBoer has lost two games in two years as the Huskies head coach, and when it’s time for a game with raised stakes, he always gets the best out of his team. He’s undefeated against Oregon and Texas, and now gets the chance to show off in the national championship game against Michigan.

DeBoer has won everywhere he’s been. When he got his start at NAIA Sioux Falls, he went 67-3 and won three NAIA championships. As head coach at Fresno State, he never lost more than three games and QB Jake Haener was one of the best Group of Five QBs in the country that year. As a coordinator at Indiana in 2019, he led the Hoosiers to one of their best offensive seasons ever, averaging over 400 total yards of offense.

The offense is what attracts for the Huskies and DeBoer; it’s a petri dish of Air Raid offenses and NFL principles with wins in the transfer portal and developed talent. The Huskies have the talent to throw the ball all across the yard, but make no mistake about it: to win the game they want to run the ball. RB Dillon Johnson has seen an uptick in usage through the meat of the season, and has kind of been their closer as they finished out games.

DeBoer has also been an extremely aggressive coach, opting to go for it on fourth downs and go and score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. DeBoer has an extreme trust in his offense, and in the biggest moments, he’s come up big with his playcalling.

DeBoer has a calm demeanor, but the offense is so chaotic and wonderful in the best ways. DeBoer is going to have to pull out all the stops to take down a formidable Michigan team.

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At this point in his career, Jim Harbaugh is not exactly a new face on the coaching scene. The veteran coach guided the San Francisco 49ers to Super Bowl XLVII — where he lost to his brother John, the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens — and now has the Wolverines in a title game.

However, for those who might need a refresher the 2023 season has been a rather curious one for Harbaugh. He began the regular season serving a suspension, associated with an NCAA investigation into recruiting violations, and ended the regular season serving a second suspension, related to the sign-stealing allegations facing the Michigan football program.

Depending on your point of view those may, or may not, overshadow what Harbaugh has accomplished during his second stint in Ann Arbor. When he was hired back in December of 2014, it was a case of a Michigan man coming home, as Harbaugh was a quarterback for the Wolverines under legendary head coach Bo Schembechler. He took over a program that had finished 5-7 the prior season under Brady Hoke, missing out on a bowl game.

In his first year back on campus, Michigan finished 10-3, with a win in the Citrus Bowl.

Now Harbaugh has the team on the verge of their first title since 1997, when the Wolverines finished atop the AP Poll after a win in the Rose Bowl. (Nebraska finished atop the Coaches’ Poll that year, leading to a split championship.) This is Michigan’s third-straight season in the College Football Playoff, and their first appearance in the championship game.

Of course there are also the persistent NFL rumors that have followed Harbaugh during his entire run as Michigan’s head coach, and those rumors kicked into overdrive when it was reported that he hired Don Yee as his agent ahead of Michigan’s game against Alabama. Could this truly be his final game at Michigan? Or will he continue to attack each day as Michigan’s head coach with an “enthusiasm unknown to mankind?”

We might get answers to those questions in a few days.

Grading the QB battle in Washington vs. Michigan

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This has been a storybook season for Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. After injuries cut short four-straight seasons in Indiana, Penix transferred to Washington ahead of the 2022 season and immediately established himself as the pointman in Washington’s offense, getting his Huskies career off to a great start with four touchdown passes against Kent State in his purple-and-gold debut.

While Washington finished 11-2 last season, the Huskies enter the title game with an unblemished record, having survived the gauntlet that was the Pac-12 in its final season. Penix was at or near the top of almost every single passing statistic this season, as he threw for 4,648 yards and 35 touchdowns, against just 9 interceptions. Penix was named a Heisman Trophy finalist, where he finished second to LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels. He was also a First-Team All-American, and took home the Maxwell Award, given each year to the “Best Player in College Football.”

Penix became the first player since Kyler Murray in 2018 to win the Maxwell Award, but not the Heisman Trophy, in the same season.

When studying Penix, the first thing that jumps out you is his arm talent. Penix can certainly dial up the velocity, as he displayed on this throw against Oregon a season ago, where he hit the hole shot for a huge touchdown in a critical moment:

That arm talent was on display against Texas, as you can see on this touchdown to Jalen McMillan:

However, there is more to Penix than how well he throws the football. As we outlined in this deep dive into his Sugar Bowl performance, Penix showed an ability on New Year’s Day to handle pressure in the pocket, something bodes well for his NFL future.

But now he faces his final college football examination: Mastering a Michigan defense that has frustrated opposing quarterbacks all season long. How well he fares on this test will not only determine Washington’s fate in the National Championship Game, but will go a long way towards finalizing his draft evaluation.

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JJ McCarthy is a bit of an enigma in the college football landscape. You can see the talent; the arm strength and whip-like release combined with the ability to stretch all three levels of the field. You see throws like this one from the Ohio State game, a ball placed in literally the only spot the ball can get put:

But there’s also the overall lack of big moments we expect from a talented QB like McCarthy. While Penix has the hole shot vs. Oregon in 2022, and big throws from this entire season, McCarthy has few of those moments, with Michigan opting to run the ball instead (which is completely fine). However, McCarthy is an extremely talented passer who can catch fire at any moment.

This year, he’s thrown for 2,851 yards and 22 touchdowns. While those are more middling numbers (40th in passing, tied for 37th in touchdowns), McCarthy is uber-efficient, posting a 55.7% Positive Play Rate, good for fourth in the nation. He’s at his best off play action, using his feet and aggressiveness downfield to stretch defense who are already strained due to the run threat. He’s 11th in the country in Boom Rate as a play action passer, so when he’s able to use the run threat, he’s a big game hunter. This is a perfect example against Michigan State. The run threat moves the linebacker out the window, and McCarthy has the velocity on his passes to fit this ball into the necessary window.

Now, where he tends to struggle is without the play action threat. McCarthy can sometimes have too much dip on his chip when it comes to passes into tight windows, and the processing isn’t just there yet. With Michigan not asking him to do much more than that (partly because they haven’t needed to), McCarthy hasn’t shown he can process on a good enough level to win games after being down double digits. That’s going to be tested against a Washington team that can score points in bunches and has a defense feisty enough in obvious passing situations to get him off his spot.

When Washington has the ball

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The Michigan Wolverines enter the National Championship game with one of the best defenses in all of college football. Michigan ranked first in Total Defense, allowing just 243.1 yards per game. The Wolverines also ranked first in scoring defense, giving up just over ten points per game. They gave up just 182 first downs this year, second in the nation. Teams ran for an average of just 93.1 yards per game against the Wolverines, making Michigan the eighth-best run defense in the country. They were also third-best in the nation when it came to passing efficiency.

But they have not yet seen an offense like Washington’s.

The Huskies enter the title game with the tenth-best offense in the nation, as Washington averaged 473.6 yards per game this year. For comparison’s sake the best offense Michigan faced this season in this statistic? UNLV, who ranked 42nd in the nation in total offense. (For those wondering, Ohio State ranked 47th).

The Huskies attack you in several different ways, starting with the passing game. Michael Penix Jr’s ability was on full display in the Sugar Bowl, as the Washington signal caller can beat you horizontally as well as vertically. Penix averaged 9.22 yards per attempt this year, 11th-best in college football. His touch in the downfield passing game creates explosive plays for Washington, like this early big gain against Texas on New Year’s Day:

Washington’s offense is a fascinating blend of vertical concepts, as you see here, as well as horizontal concepts designed to get the ball out of Penix’s hand, and into the hands of their playmakers. The Huskies boast one of the best wide receiver groups in all of college football, led by Rome Odunze, a two-time All-American and a likely top-ten pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. But do not sleep on Ja’Lynn Polk, who was on the other end of the Penix throw above, as well as Jalen McMillian, one of college football’s best slot receivers, and tight end Jack Westover.

While the passing game gets the headlines, their rushing attack is a nice complement to what they can do through the air. Washington’s offensive line received the Joe Moore Award, given annually to the nation’s best offensive line, and the unit allowed just 11 sacks and 46 tackles for a loss during the regular season. Dillon Johnson led the way with 1,162 rushing yards, and while he suffered a leg injury in the final minute of the Sugar Bowl he is expected to be in the lineup on Monday night.

While the perimeter running game was more of a feature against Texas, given their stout defensive line, Washington can still get north/south on the ground thanks to their offensive line, as Johnson showed on this run against Oregon State:

o what can you expect from this Michigan defense against Penix and company?

Disguise, as well as some five-man pressure looks. Cody Alexander, who does a tremendous job covering defense at both the NFL and college level, took a deep dive into how Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter used a five-man pressure scheme to disrupt Alabama’s rushing attack:

Then, if you look at how Minter structured his defense against Ohio State and talented WR Marvin Harrison Jr., you see lots of coverage rotations, as well as some bracket coverages against Harrison on critical downs. These forced quarterback Kyle McCord to continually rethink the coverage after the snap, given what he expected before the play.

Take this play:

Ohio State sends a receiver in motion before the snap, and a Michigan defender trails him. McCord sees this, and likely suspects that the Wolverines are in man coverage. But at the snap the defender trailing the motion player drops into a deep half, as the Wolverines spin this into Cover 2 zone coverage.

McCord misses it, and a chance for a big play. With two deep safeties, the vertical route that splits them is an opportunity against this coverage. Instead, McCord looks to an underneath crosser — perhaps expecting man coverage — and misses the throw.

Or take this play, as perhaps an example of how Michigan might handle Odunze. Look how they defense Harrison on this third-down situation, who is aligned to the right side of the offense:

The safety and the cornerback run an in-and-out bracket on Harrison, forcing McCord to look elsewhere.

Michigan is going to test Penix mentally, but it is a test that if he aces, bodes well for his NFL future. After all, Mike Macdonald, Michigan’s defensive coordinator from a season ago, is currently in Baltimore causing many NFL passers headaches with a similar system as the Ravens defensive coordinator.

When Michigan has the ball

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When the Wolverines are on offense, expect to see one of the more varied offenses in college football today. While Michigan doesn’t have the boom or explosiveness of the Husky offense, they can win games in a variety of ways on offense.

It starts up front with Michigan. The Wolverines pride themselves on being physical and dominant up front, and their run game is a major part of their offense, running for 159 yards per game and a 44% Positive Play Rate, per Sports Information Solutions. The thing that stands out about the Wolverines run game is how varied it is. They run zone and gap scheme runs, but their bread and butter is power and inside zone. As it is written, the greatest RPO ever run is Run Power Often. Of their 525 runs this year per SIS, Michigan has run power on 104 attempts on 20% of those runs. While they mix in a lot of variety with their run game, they want to live in 12 personnel and run the ball at you with their backs and tight ends on the field.

On their overtime drive against Alabama, they trot out 12 personnel and Bama counters with bigger personnel up front. This is where they want to get you. Put all your big people on the field and let’s mash. Most of the time, Michigan comes out the winner:

When tight end AJ Barner and H-Back/Fullback Max Bredeson enter the game, the Wolverines are getting ready to punch you in the mouth with the run game. Their offensive line is capable of slowing down games and forcing opposing defenses to play at their pace and timing. Off those power runs, they do have changeups such as this sweet toss play off of split zone action, away from the sweep.

QB JJ McCarthy will also be involved in the run game. While he’s not a dynamic runner (only 171 total rushing yards this season), he’s a very good athlete who can succeed on the occasional designed run. Michigan likes getting him out on the edge on QB sweeps, and if he can get the corner he can make a defense pay. This was a cool way of getting into QB Counter Bash out of empty, and getting McCarthy out on the edge.

While Washington’s defense deserves a lot more credit than they get, they’re rather weak up the spine of the defense. By spine, I mean the defensive tackle and linebacker spots. Texas ran for 7.27 yards per carry in the Sugar Bowl with a sparkling 0.44 EPA/run. The Texas offense went away from the run far too early in their Sugar Bowl loss, but make no mistake about it: Michigan is more than willing to keep running the ball.

Where Washington might have the advantage is if they get Michigan into obvious passing situations. Michigan hasn’t been in many of those situations where McCarthy has been under pressure, but if you look at how Washington played Texas, they were able to move QB Quinn Ewers off his spot with designed games up front, spearheaded by superstar EDGE Bralen Trice. On this play from the Sugar Bowl, Washington uses Trice as a decoy, instead dropping him into coverage with a linebacker standing over the center, while bringing a nickel. This makes the nickel a free runner and he gets pressure on Ewers and forces an incompletion. While McCarthy is a better QB than Ewers, getting him off his timing and rhythm could do Washington wonders.

What’ll be critical to the play of Washington’s defense is cornerback Jabbar Muhammad. The senior DB played his best game of the season on Monday night, holding WR AD Mitchell to zero catches before getting hurt. If Michigan is going to be forced to pass to win the game, Muhammad will be critical in the slowing down of the Wolverines passing game.

Defeating Michigan is going to take Washington’s best game, especially up front. The Wolverines are going to test Washington’s physicality, but the Huskies have answered every call this season. This matchup could ultimately decide who wins the national championship.

NFL Draft prospects to watch

Washington

Rome Odunze, WR

While he did not reach the end zone against Texas, Rome Odunze still caught 6 passes for 125 yards as Washington hung 37 points on the Longhorns. Against Michigan Odunze and the Husky receiver group has got to play at another level one more time if Washington is going to bring home the title. The thing that stands out about Odunze is his ability to make catches outside his frame and body control. combine that with a 6’3 frame and 4.4 speed and you get a surefire first round wide receiver who can win on the outside.

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Bralen Trice, EDGE

A rather underrated name amongst this years’ EDGE class, Bralen Trice can put his name firmly amongst the top group of pass rushers with a standout performance against Michigan. The Wolverines offensive line does allow a lot of pressure or sacks — the group gave up just 19 sacks this season — but for Trice it’ll have to be his best game of the season. Trice is a high effort pass rusher who can also win around the corner, and for the Huskies to rattle J.J. McCarthy, he’ll have to be at his best.

Michael Penix Jr., QB

Michael Penix Jr. was a Heisman finalist, has led one of the nation’s best teams to some huge wins, can make any throw asked of him, and played a near-perfect game against Texas.

So, what’s not to like?

NFL teams might be wary of his college offense, and might be scared off by his injury history and relative age. We saw similar concerns push Hendon Hooker down the board a bit last year. Could the same thing happen this season?

Well, if he has another game like he did against Texas, those concerns might not matter.

Troy Fautanu, IOL

Fautanu currently plays left tackle for the Huskies, but has the athletic traits and skill to move inside to guard. He has strong hands and play strength despite having longer arms, and when he drives and finishes blocks, pancakes often follow. Michigan has a physical defensive line who wants to win in those areas, and for Washington to win this game, Fautanu is going to have to play at his best.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR

Polk had the first big play of the Sugar Bowl against Texas, and while Odunze gets the headlines Polk is on the fringe of the top five wide receivers as well. A redshirt sophomore who can really stretch the field vertically, Polk could be a weapon early in his NFL career. His hands aren’t as consistent as Odunze, but for NFL teams looking for designated deep threats on the outside, Polk can be a quality NFL starter in that category. The National Championship game gives him another chance to put on a show for NFL scouts.

Michigan

J.J. McCarthy, QB

Going into “The Game,” there were lingering questions about Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy, at least from an NFL draft standpoint. Hampered by a leg injury, McCarthy was relegated to a supporting role in wins over Penn State and Maryland, and in that Penn State victory he did not attempt a single pass in the second half.

But McCarthy answered some of those questions against Ohio State. He hit on 16 of 20 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown, as Michigan beat their rivals to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game. Then against Iowa McCarthy played a mistake-free game, and followed that with a three-touchdown performance against Alabama.

The battle for QB3 might be the most fascinating position fight in the entire 2024 NFL Draft — and it might be a fight that has gotten away from McCarthy towards Jayden Daniels in recent weeks — but a strong performance against Washington could push McCarthy back into that fight.

Blake Corum, RB

Everything you want to see from a running back you saw from Blake Corum on the game-winning touchdown against Alabama: Vision, lateral quickness, explosiveness, change-of-direction skills, and the ability to finish through contact.

Still … Corum is a running back, and we know how that position has been valued in recent years by the NFL. That might see him wait until Day Two to hear his name called, but he is definitely worth watching Monday night.

Roman Wilson, WR

With one year of remaining eligibility, Wilson could choose to return to Michigan for a final season, but is also a name that could potentially be called within the first three rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft.

As a senior, Wilson caught 41 passes for 662 yards and 11 touchdowns, serving as Michigan’s top wideout. He also had one of his most productive games of the year against the Crimson Tide, as he caught 4 passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in the Rose Bowl. This late catch against Alabama flashed the body control you want to see from an NFL receiver:

On film, Wilson’s speed and separation at the top of his breaks stand out, and could be a key factor in raising his stock as the draft process continues forward.

Kris Jenkins, DL

One of Michigan’s top defenders, Jenkins projects as a good run defender with the potential to be a three-down player at the next level, shaping him up to be a potential top-100 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

A great athlete for his position, Jenkins possesses unique traits that could boost his draft stock come NFL Combine time. He’s got NFL lineage and the disruption to be a problem on the interior in a variety of spots.

Junior Colson, LB

Colson’s calling card comes in coverage, where he is most impressive with good instincts and speed to keep up with tight ends downfield.

While he’ll continue to develop as a run-stopper, the ability in coverage is one that several teams will seek in the modern-day NFL.

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Mike Sainristil, CB

A former wide receiver, Sainristil made the coveted change to cornerback and has blossomed at the position.

Likely a nickel cornerback at the next level given his 5’10, 185-pound frame, Sainristil also possesses the intangibles that several teams look for, which could make him a prime Day 2 selection. Sainristil plays very instinctually at the nickel corner position, and despite his slighter frame, he’s unafraid of challenging bigger opponents physically. He’s a great fit for a modern defense needing a nickel corner.

Rod Moore, S

Recently known for his game-clinching interception against Ohio State, Moore is still determining his future, but possesses the instincts at the safety position that NFL teams covet to go with good movement in space at 6’0, 185-pounds.

While a bit smaller than traditional NFL safeties, Moore’s versatility at the position is similar to former Michigan defensive back Dax Hill, which should boost him as one of the top safeties in the 2024 NFL Draft.

National championship predictions for Washington vs. Michigan

J.P. Acosta:

I’ve been going back and forth on the winner of this game. On one hand, the game could be decided up front on the line of scrimmage. Michigan has the advantage when they have the ball up front, and if this turns into a ball control game, that leans in Michigan’s advantage. However, this Washington team has answered every doubt this season, and it’s really hard to defend an NFL-caliber QB, four NFL-caliber wideouts and a playcaller that’s at the top of his game. Washington is going to score—I just don’t know if Michigan can play from down double digits.

Washington 30, Michigan 28

Mark Schofield:

They have been underdogs all year long, and that continues in the title game. But each time, Washington has gone out and proven the doubters wrong, and I expect that trend to continue. They have an explosive offense that will cause problems for Michigan in the passing game, and the Wolverines do not have the offense to keep up.

Washington 31, Michigan 21