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Let’s make predictions for Heat vs. Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Finals.
No one could have predicted the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat would be the last two teams standing in the 2023 NBA Finals when the playoffs began. Denver and Miami came from opposite ends of the bracket — the Nuggets as the No. 1 seed in the West, the Heat as the No. 8 and final seed in the East — but arrive in the championship round because of inspiring team-efforts that stunned their critics and cemented the mental and physical toughness of both rosters.
The Nuggets laid waste to the competition in the West with a 12-3 record entering the Finals. Superstar center Nikola Jokic is solidifying his case as the best basketball player alive by flirting with triple-doubles and scoring with remarkable efficiency. Jokic has an emerging co-star in Jamal Murray, who is finally healthy after missing the last two playoff runs as he recovered from a torn ACL. Murray’s shot creation and shot making has helped keep the Denver offense humming, while Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope fill in the cracks on both ends.
The Heat have a simple formula: take the Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo pick-and-roll, surround them with volume three-point shooters and tough defenders, and let genius head coach Erik Spoelstra figure out the rest. Butler has been the hero of Miami’s unlikely playoff run, but it’s Heat role players like Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent who have really come up clutch on this run. Can Miami shock the world one more time?
Before the 2023 NBA Finals begin, SB Nation writers got together to make predictions on the series.
Denver in 7: My heart, after watching the Heat give up a three-game lead in the Eastern Conference Finals and then go into a boisterous TD Garden in Game 7 to beat the Boston Celtics on the road, wants to believe that the Heat can complete this run. But my head, looking at these two teams, thinks the run ends here. Denver has the two-time MVP in Jokić who is playing at an extremely high level — as he averaged a triple-double against the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals — and Jamal Murray, who had a pair of 37-point games against Los Angeles, giving the Nuggets a formidable 1-2 tandem. Jokić is a very tough matchup for Miami, and the zone defense the Heat employed at times to give Boston fits is likely negated by the big man’s passing ability. Plus, Denver is rested, and they’ve got home court. Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin will find their points, Erik Spoelstra will come up with something, so this won’t be a smooth coronation, but it will be a Denver win. MVP: Nikola Jokić. — Mark Schofield
Denver in 5: I’m not gonna lie, I’ve been swept up in the Heat’s incredible run this postseason and I think it would be so much fun to see them pull it out — but it’s just impossible for me to see it happen. The Nuggets are really deep, and on paper it might be easy to say “Well, Bam can cover Joker,” but that’s going to take at least a double to stop Jokic from eating. You pair that with Jamal Murray’s breakout this playoffs and it makes for a varied threat that matches up awkwardly against the Heat. If we’d seen the Nuggets really struggle on their path to the finals I might be feeling differently about this series, but they’ve more or less breezed through the field. Sure, it took six games to dispatch the Suns — but that was a Suns team with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. At this point I think the finals will be an extension of the regular season and Denver wins the ‘ship. MVP: Nikola Jokić. — James Dator
Denver in 5: It feels reductive to pick the Nuggets because they’re the “better team,” especially when the Heat already eliminated the “better team” twice on this playoff run by knocking out the Bucks and Celtics. Erik Spoelstra should strike fear into the hearts of Denver fans, because if anyone can figure out how to puncture a hole in what was a shaky Nuggets defense throughout the regular season, it’s him. Ultimately, I just think Denver is bigger, fresher, and has the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are a truly cohesive team built with the long-view in mind, but their success always circles back to Jokic’s dominance. The way Jokic is lifting these Nuggets feels very reminiscent of Dirk Nowitzki carrying the 2011 Mavericks. He’s an all-time great, and this is his time. MVP: Nikola Jokić — Ricky O’Donnell
Heat in 7: I just can’t doubt this team ever again. Not after what they did to Milwaukee. Not after taking out both the 1 and 2 seeds in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are playing with so much confidence that as a Heat fan, I cannot go against them. Schematically, all eyes will be on Heat big man Bam Adebayo, but I’m looking for his contributions on the offensive end. He has to remain confident and give Jokic problems on that side of the ball through his activity, to try and wear the Nuggets’ star out. I think Miami has enough defense and head coach Erik Spoelstra will throw every coverage in the book at him, and I will never doubt Jimmy Butler and this team again. If Butler sees double teams like he did against New York, the Heat have proven more than capable of winning off the dribble and capitalizing on mistakes. Caleb Martin will continue to play at a very high level, and with Tyler Herro coming back, the offense could receive a major boost. Burn the boats. Finish the job. Finals MVP: Jimmy Butler
