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There are some big changes in our latest mock draft.
It’s almost jarring how fast the NBA Draft sneaks up on the league calendar even if you’re the type of person who spends the whole year preparing for it (guilty). Once the NBA Finals end, it’s a sprint to the draft with rumors and smoke screens bubbling up in equal measure until the big night finally arrives.
Victor Wembanyama, the 7’5 big man from France being hailed as one of the best prospects in history, will be the No. 1 overall pick to the San Antonio Spurs. After that, it gets interesting. The Charlotte Hornets sit at No. 2, the Portland Trail Blazers pick at No. 3, and the Houston Rockets will select at No. 4. There are two point guards — Scoot Thompson and Amen Thompson — and one big wing (Brandon Miller) expected to go in the next three picks, but it’s impossible to say what order they will come off the board at this point.
With the 2023 NBA Draft coming on June 22, here’s our latest projection of the first round. A lot has changed from our last mock after the lottery in May. We’ll break down the most important picks and most fascinating draft day decisions after the table.
Victor Wembanyama lives up to the hype
We won’t spend too much time on the No. 1 overall pick here because so much has been said and written about Wembanyama already. Check out my piece from the day of last year’s draft for a deep dive on why he’s so special.
The Spurs really feel like the perfect landing spot for Wemby even before you get to their history developing both transcendent big men (Tim Duncan, David Robinson) and international stars (Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili). Last year’s first rounder Jeremy Sochan will be a wonderful fit as the four next to Wembanyama for his athleticism, rebounding, passing vision, and developing ability to put the ball on the floor. Devin Vassell is a do-it-all wing on both ends of the floor who can provide stout help defense and hit threes. I’m excited to see if Blake Wesley can be the athletic rim attacker this team needs even if the Spurs could use a more veteran hand at point.
Mostly, though, this is a great spot for Wembanyama because he’ll be able to test out of the limits of his skill set for the first few years. He should try to develop his creation ability even if there are some ugly moments. He should shoot threes off the catch, off the dribble, and off movement even if the percentages aren’t immediately great. He should defend the pick-and-roll in different coverages. There should not be much pressure on Wembanyama to lead the Spurs to a ton of victories, not for the first year or two of his career at least. That experimental phase should be an extension of his season with Metropolitans, and it will be thrilling to watch as he starts to build himself into an All-Star talent.
The Hornets have the NBA Draft’s first big decision at No. 2
The Charlotte Hornets have a true franchise cornerstone in LaMelo Ball, but otherwise might have the least talented roster in the NBA. It puts them in a fascinating position with the No. 2 pick in the draft: do they take the ‘best player available’ even if it’s a point guard, or do they draft for fit?
G League Ignite point guard Scoot Henderson was the consensus No. 2 prospect in this class behind Wembanyama for nearly the entirety of this cycle. Henderson is a jacked 6’2 point guard with a 6’9 wingspan who has a blazing first step, incredible open floor speed, and has started to master the art of playmaking in the pick-and-roll. There are some legitimate concerns about his fit next to Ball: Henderson has not proven himself as a spot-up shooter playing off-the-ball, and the defensive fit looks shaky at best for the immediate future.
Brandon Miller is seen as a more seamless fit next to Ball. At 6’9, the Alabama freshman is the type of big wing with shooting ability every team is said to covet. Miller is not an elite athlete, but he’s a pretty good passer and can leverage his immense size to both shoot over opponents on the perimeter and finish over them at the rim. He hit 38.4 percent of his threes on 276 attempts in college, with 83 percent of those looks being assisted. It’s easy to envision a future where Ball can sling passes to Miller at the three-point line, and the Hornets have more size to defend on the other end.
The question mark for Miller is his burst off the dribble. He doesn’t create much separation when attacking the defense off the bounce in addition to not getting a ton of lift on his finishes around the rim. He isn’t always super decisive with his offensive attacks, and will need to tighten his handle if he wants to reach whatever creation potential he’s supposed to have.
Miller is the odds-on favorite to go No. 2 to Charlotte right now, but don’t forget that Jabari Smith Jr. was supposed to go No. 1 last season before the Orlando Magic called an audible at the buzzer and made the right choice with Paolo Banchero. We went with Henderson in this mock because he’s the best player on the board, and the Hornets can’t afford to pass on the best talent given the state of their roster.
Will the Portland Trail Blazers trade the pick or keep it?
Even before the Trail Blazers moved up to No. 3 overall in the draft lottery, Portland was about to face a tantalizing decision with its pick. Superstar guard Damian Lillard made it no secret that he wants Portland to add veteran talent over the offseason — which would mean trading this pick. Is the Blazers’ front office on the same page as Dame? If not, could Lillard request a trade later this offseason?
If Miller goes No. 2 as expected, the Blazers would be choosing between two point guards in Henderson and Thompson if they keep the pick. Both are amazing talents who would be ideal long-term building blocks next to Shaedon Sharpe, Portland’s lottery pick last year. Neither would likely be ready to help the team make the playoffs next season, which is what Lillard wants.
Who could Portland trade this pick for? Mikal Bridges, Jaylen Brown, Zach LaVine, and Pascal Siakam are four possibilities, but it takes both sides to agree to a trade for it to go through. Given that Portland hired ESPN draft mastermind Mike Schmitz to the front office last year, I’m skeptical that Portland actually wants to trade this pick. The Blazers are more than one move away from contention, in my humble opinion. Passing on a stud 19- or 20-year-old guard to appease a star who turns 33 years old this summer just isn’t great process unless you’re immediately contending.
My bold prediction is that Portland keeps the pick, selects Henderson or Thompson, and Lillard asks for a trade before the season begins.
Who are the draft’s biggest risers?
Here are three players who could get picked way earlier than most expected a couple months ago:
Bilal Coulibaly, F, Metropolitans 92: Evaluators watching Victor Wembanyama all year noticed a young, emerging wing on his team who deserved real first round consideration of his own. Coulibaly is a 6’6 swingman with a 7’2 wingspan who combines elite athleticism with sky-high defensive potential and some shot-up shooting upside. His improved play on the Mets’ run to the league finals has given him new momentum while the rest of this draft class has been done playing competitive games for months. His ability to contest shots on the perimeter with his absurd length + leaping combo is incredibly enticing, but it may take a few years for him to figure out his offense.
Kobe Bufkin, G, Michigan: Bufkin just kept getting better and better during his two years at Michigan. The combo guard is enticing for his ability to play on or off the ball. He was an incredible finisher at the rim (68.8 percent) and created most of those looks himself with only 26 percent being assisted. He also shoots an easy ball from the perimeter, connecting on 35.5 percent of his threes and 85 percent of his free throws. Bufkin’s pesky perimeter defense is also solid, and he even measured a bit taller than expected at a shade over 6’4 barefoot. Bufkin is not an overwhelming athlete, and his thin frame is a bit of a concern, but the two-way ability and offensive versatility here is real.
Dereck Lively II, C, Duke: Lively was the No. 2 overall recruit entering Duke according to the RSCI, but his one-and-done year was uneven at best: he was slowed by a calf injury early in the season, and scored in double-figures only once in his first 21 games. Eventually, Lively started to come on and showed the upside people saw from him in high school. Lively is a long rim-protecting center whose 12.7 percent block rate ranked No. 3 in all of DI. He’s also a very good rebounder, especially on the offensive end, and dunks everything inside. The shooting potential Lively was supposed to have never showed up, and he doesn’t have much of an offensive bag when he can’t dunk. There’s buzz that he could even go in the top-10 to Dallas.
What were the hardest picks to peg?
These are the picks I struggled with in this projection:
Orlando Magic at No. 6: The Magic should already have their No. 1 option (Paolo Banchero) and No. 2 option (Franz Wagner) locked down. What they need now is pieces that fit around those players with an emphasis on shooting. Kansas wing Gradey Dick is perhaps the best possible fit for Orlando in this draft yet No. 6 feels a bit rich for him, but he might not make it to the Magic’s second pick at No. 11 (via the Bulls). Ausar Thompson was a ‘best player available’ pick here, but his shooting is still a big question mark even if he’s better in that area than his brother. I considered Taylor Hendricks, Cason Wallace, and Anthony Black as well. Don’t be surprised if Orlando trades out of this spot.
Dallas Mavericks at No. 10: The Mavericks are in a unique position because they need a win-now rotation piece more than any team picking in the top-10 as the clock ticks on the Luka Doncic/Kyrie Irving pairing (if Irving is re-signed). Cason Wallace is one of my favorite prospects in this class as a connective guard who brings it defensively and can hit an open jumper. Anthony Black and Taylor Hendricks would also be great picks, but will possibly be gone. Expect Lively and Dick to draw some looks here, too.
Atlanta Hawks at No. 15: The Hawks need a wing, but this isn’t a great spot to get one. I know what I would do here: take Jett Howard or Brice Sensabaugh. It sure seems like the league is a lot lower on them, though. I went with Noah Clowney here for his ability to pair nicely in lineups with Onyeka Okongwu at the five, and his jump-shooting potential.
