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Here’s our latest projection of the 2024 NBA Draft now that March Madness is over.
The 2024 NBA Draft cycle opened this summer with massive uncertainty over would who emerge as the No. 1 player in the class. With college basketball season now over, and UConn again reigning supreme, it feels like we’re no closer to a consensus answer.
The lack of an obvious top prospect has always made evaluating this draft class a true challenge for the sickos. It usually isn’t this way. Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren entered and exited college as the top prospects in 2022. Victor Wembanyama was the biggest lock ever to go No. 1 overall in 2023. Cooper Flagg is the heavy favorite to go No. 1 in 2025. In 2026, the top pick is likely to be Cameron Boozer or A.J. Dybantsa.
Who’s the best prospect in 2024? Ask five people and it’s highly possible you’ll get five different answers. After tracking the progress over this class over several years, SB Nation’s big board has crystalized with Serbian guard Nikola Topic and French big man Alex Sarr at the top. Right behind them are G League Ignite wings Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis, Kentucky guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, and French wing Zaccharie Risacher.
Is there a future NBA superstar hiding in plain sight in this class? It’s anyone’s guess. For now, here’s how we project the 2024 NBA Draft with March Madness officially behind us. More analysis of the biggest winners of March Madness follows after the table.
Who helped themselves the most during the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament? Let’s break it down.
Stephon Castle skyrockets up the board after the Final Four
Stephon Castle fit seamlessly into UConn’s juggernaut all year as a 6’6 freshman guard who could leave a big impact without needing to hold the ball constantly. He looks like a ready-made fit as a high-level NBA role player, and there’s room for him to grow into so much more.
Castle is a powerful off-ball guard with a 215-pound frame and a reported 6’9 wingspan. He projects as a lockdown defender who can guard up and down the positional spectrum while playing a connective role on offense. While it’s not a perfect comparison, his NBA ceiling could be in the mold of Jrue Holiday.
Castle’s defense was so impressive throughout this tournament run. He helped blanket Illinois star Terrence Shannon in the Elite Eight, helping hold him to 2-of-12 shooting after the Illini wing had been a tear the previous two weeks. He was great against Alabama on both ends in the Final Four, showing the ability to stick with the Tide’s quicker guards and using his strength to hold up inside.
Offensively, Castle isn’t quite a point guard and he’s not a volume shooter from three either, which makes him a bit of an awkward fit. He did knock down two wide open threes against Alabama. While he’s only a 26.8 percent three-point shooter, his 76.4 percent free throw mark should give teams optimism for future improvement. Castle’s at his best making quick passes around the perimeter, driving to the lane, and finishing at the rim. He can play through contact in the paint and has enough bounce to finish in close. He loves playing off two feet after getting deep dribble penetration, using spins and fadeaways to get off clean looks at the basket.
If Castle’s jump shot improves, his huge frame, tenacious defense, and ability to score in the paint gives him real upside. In a weaker draft, his traits are worth betting on.
Donovan Clingan is a big NBA Draft winner of March Madness
Clingan was masterful in UConn’s run to the national championship, providing expert rim protection, skilled playmaking, and opportunistic offensive finishing on the way to the Huskies becoming college basketball’s first back-to-back champion since Al Horford and Joakim Naoh pulled off the trick at Florida in 2006-2007.
Clingan’s pro appeal starts with incredible size and shot-blocking. At 7’2, 280 pounds, with a 7’7 wingspan, he has measurements that put him in the elite tier of NBA size. While it’s far from a perfect comparison, his length and skill set will draw similarities to Rudy Gobert. In a draft weak at the top with potential star talent, Clingan feels like a safe bet to continuing to be good in the areas he’s always excelled.
Clingan’s defensive dominance was on display all throughout the Huskies’ run to the national title game. He squashed Illinois in the Elite Eight, rendering one of the country’s most efficient offenses totally helpless to the tune of a 30-0 second half run. Add Final Four here.
A year ago, Clingan mostly played drop coverage as the freshman secret weapon coming off the bench for UConn’s title team. This season he showed off more versatilty in coverages, often playing at the level of the screen and showing good recovery instincts to scramble back and challenge shots. He’s still on the slower-end for NBA big men (Gobert, comparatively, is much more athletic), and there are serious questions on how many minutes he can play. Clingan was only on the floor for about 48 percent of UConn’s available minutes this season, and played more than 30 minutes only four times.
Offensively, Clingan’s touch around the rim isn’t great. He’s not an explosive leaper, but he has the length to make up for it. His best attribute offensively is his playmaking, where he can spring drivers with hard screens, throw perfectly placed passes to cutters out of the high post, and unlock halfcourt offense with dribble-handoffs. He’s not a threat to shoot a three-pointer at all.
If Clingan can improve improve his conditioning and durability, there’s a pathway here for an elite defensive center who can also act as a halfcourt hub for an offense with his playmaking. That may not be the sexiest player, but in this draft it’s worth a top-10 pick.
Dalton Knecht is a pure bucket-getter
Knecht was the best story and most devastating offensive weapon in college basketball this side of Zach Edey. The 6’6 wing took a winding road with stardom, with two years of JUCO ball followed by two years at Northern Colorado followed by a breakout season for Tennessee. His final step is jumping to the NBA, where he has a chance to be the rare five-year college player to be drafted in the lottery.
Knecht is a walking bucket who can score in bunches from all three levels. He’s a high-volume, highly accurate three-point shooter who can instantly provide floor spacing and knockdown shooting while playing off NBA stars. He hit 39.7 percent of his threes on 6.5 attempts per game this year, and made 77.2 percent of his free throws. Knecht isn’t just a shooter, though. He’s capable of attacking the rim in straight line drives, and generates good power with his 6’6, 205-pound frame. With a stop-and-pop midrange game also in his arsenal, it’s easy to see Knecht making a living by pumping out threes and attacking closeouts.
Knecht is not a good defender, and will have to prove he isn’t a huge weak link in the chain at the NBA level. He struggles to get over screens, can get overpowered by drivers, isn’t great on closeouts, and will showcase some inattentiveness to his assignment. The offense should keep him in the league for a long time, though. He’s reminiscent of Tim Hardaway Jr. or Grayson Allen as an off-ball player who shoot with volume and needs to be supported defensively.
Zach Edey deserves a real look from NBA teams
Read our deep dive on Edey’s NBA translation. Edey put up impossibly great production on his way to securing back-to-back national player of the year awards at Purdue. He’s a massive center at 7’4, 300 pounds who can score inside, aggressively attacking the glass as a rebounder, and take up a lot of space defensively in the paint with a 7’10 wingspan. Edey is also very slow, doesn’t have shooting range, and isn’t a plus passer. It’s going to take an exact fit to maximize him in the NBA, and most role players don’t get that type of fit.
There’s a case to be made that Edey really does have star upside in the NBA, even if it’s a slim chance he hits that outcome. He’s going to be the biggest player in the league from day one, he has good touch as an interior scorer, and the matchup problems he presented in college will still be real in the pros. His production was so awesome that it can’t be discounted. The fact that he’s able to play entire games without a break at his size — he went all 40 minutes against NC State in the Final Four — is pretty remarkable. Edey is a first round pick in our book.
NBA Draft 2024 key dates
What: 2024 NBA Draft
Dates: June 26 for first round. June 27 for second round.
Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. for first round. ESPN’s Seaport District Studios in New York for second round
NBA Early Entry Eligibility Deadline: April 27
NBA Draft Lottery 2024: May 12 presented by State Farm
NBA Combine: May 13-19: (Chicago, IL)
NBA Draft Early Entry Entrant Withdrawal Deadline: June 16 at 5 p.m. ET
