Olympics’ 8 men’s basketball teams still standing, ranked by gold medal chances

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Let’s rank the eight teams left in the Olympics’ men’s basketball tournament by their gold medal chances.

The men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics is on its way to crowning a champion. A 12-team field has been trimmed to just eight teams after the group stage, and now it’s time for a single-elimination knockout tournament until one team stands on top of the podium with the gold medal.

The United States is the obvious favorite entering the knockout rounds. The Americans have won seven of the last eight Olympics gold medals in men’s basketball, and blasted their way through the group stage with the tournament’s best point-differential. Their two biggest challengers for gold are Germany and Canada, but the U.S. won’t play either until the potential championship game.

This tournament has been full of star-power and thrilling games so far. It’s only going to get better in the knockout rounds, because anything can happen in a single-elimination, 40-minute FIBA game. Find the schedule and bracket for the knockout rounds in the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics here. Here’s how we’d rank the eight teams still standing in the field by their gold medal chances.

8. Brazil

Brazil can thank former Raptors first round pick Bruno Caboclo (of “two years away from being two years away” fame) for pushing them into the knockout rounds. Caboclo popped off for 33 points (on 13-of-19 shooting from the field) and 17 rebounds in a win over Japan that pushed Brazil into the knockout rounds. Only Greece scored fewer total points in the group stage, but veterans like Vitor Benite, Leo Meindl, and Raul Neto have provided a competitive foundation for this team. It would take a miracle to beat Team USA in the quarterfinals, but Brazil can still say it had a successful tournament.

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7. Greece

Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting Greece on his back in the Olympics. Giannis is leading the tournament in scoring at 27 points per game while also helping make Greece the second stingiest defense in the field by points allowed. The problem is that Antetokounmpo doesn’t have much help around him offensively. Only one of his teammates is averaging double-figures in scoring (Vasilis Toliopoulos at 12 points per game), and no one else on the team is shooting above 43 percent from the field. Greece’s 233 points are the fewest of any team to reach the knockout stage. The offense might be a complete slog right now, but Giannis’ super-human two-way ability has pushed them to the knockout rounds, and that’s something to be proud of.

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6. France

France is facing a ton of pressure for a deep run as the host country, but right now this roster looks too flawed for that. While Victor Wembanyama has been fantastic in his Olympics debut on both ends of the floor, his teammates have struggled to get him the ball in advantageous situations. The downfall for France so far has been its guard play. Frank Ntilikina and Matthew Strazel can’t get to the rim for easy buckets like most backcourts in this tournament, and Evan Fournier’s shooting has fallen off since a hot run at the last Tokyo Olympics. Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert has so great defensively that France has a chance in any matchup, but it’s hard to win without good guard play.

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5. Australia

The Aussies took second in the ‘group of death’ despite going 1-2. Australia is learning it can’t rely so heavily on soon-to-be 36-year-old Patty Mills in these Games. After carrying Australia to bronze at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, Mills has struggled to get going offensive so far, shooting only 30 percent on two-point field goals. His younger teammates have picked up the slack. Josh Giddey has stepped up as the new leader of the Boomers, giving this team a solid mix of scoring (15 points) and playmaking (6.7 assists) to start the tournament. Big man Jock Landale has been excellent inside, with hyper-efficient scoring (17.7 points per game on 68.8 percent shooting on two-pointers) and rebounding. One area of focus for Australia as it moves onto the knockout rounds to face Serbia: it has to shoot free throws better. Its 63.5 percent mark from the line is the worst of any team to advance past the group stages.

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4. Serbia

Serbia never really felt like it played its best basketball in group play, but it still easily advanced with the fourth largest point-differential at +26. The big issue for Serbia right now is a defense that allowed 87 points per game in three contests — the worst mark of any team to reach the knockout rounds. Serbia will have to relay heavily on its offense, but that’s just fine with the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, as the hub of its attack. Jokic averaged 18.7 points, 11 rebounds, and seven assists per game in group play, which ranked in the top-10 of each category. Serbia’s shooters haven’t gotten hot yet, and this was still the second-best offense in group play. If Bogdan Bogdanovic and company heat up from deep, Serbia dangerous in a 40-minute FIBA game with Jokic as their leader. Australia is a tough matchup in the quarterfinals and the U.S. is an impossible one in the semis, but Serbia still has the goods to have a real chance to do something special.

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3. Germany

It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Germans have been so impressive in the Olympics so far — they are the defending FIBA World Cup champions, and continue to look like the most cohesive team in the field. Germany’s defense has been the biggest revelation of the tournament so far: every other team allowed an average of at least 80 points per game in group play, but Germany held the opposition to only 73.7 points across their 3-0 start. Germany’s offense looked tremendous as the third highest-scoring team in group play. Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner are legitimate FIBA stars on the perimeter, and Mo Wagner and Daniel Theis have been excellent providing toughness inside. Discount Germany in this tournament at your own peril. This team is really good.

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2. Canada

Canada advanced out of the so-called Group of Death unblemished with wins over Australia, Greece, and Spain — even if it wasn’t always pretty. The Canadians have struggled to shoot the ball from three (33.8 percent from deep through three games) and have one of the weaker front courts remaining in the tournament, but there’s still so much to like about this team. R.J. Barrett is playing some of the best ball of his career right now as Canada’s leading scorer, showing the downhill scoring ability that once made him a top NBA prospect. Dillon Brooks is also playing inspired ball, at times feeling like this group’s emotional leader with his defensive intensity and knack for hitting big shots. Everything still revolves around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 26-year-old MVP candidate who can be the best player on the floor regardless of the opponent. Canada has a hellacious path to the gold medal game with France in the quarterfinals and potentially Germany in the semis, but this team has the second highest ceiling in the field if they play their best game.

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1. United States

If there were concerns about Team USA coming off a few close games in the exhibition slate, a dominant run in Group C should have reinforced that this is by far the best team in the field. The Americans routed a medal contender in Serbia in their opening game, and then coasted to easy wins over South Sudan and Puerto Rico. Toughest tests are coming for the U.S., but this team appears to have an answer for every question that could possibly be posed to them. LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant is an amazing foundation for this team — not just because it’s three top-20 players of all-time, but also because their games fit together so seamlessly. While Joel Embiid has struggled to adapt at times, the front court still looks outstanding with Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo both playing great ball. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White have transitioned perfectly from the Celtics to the national team, providing their signature brand of defensive versatility and connective offensive skill sets. Anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament, but Team USA deserves to be a heavy favorite.