Photo by Joe Portlock – Formula 1/Formula Motorsport Limited via Getty Images
Carlos Sainz Jr.’s decision to drive for Williams cuts the number of available seats down to four. How will they get filled?
The cork in the bottle that was Carlos Sainz Jr. has been removed
Now we wait to see how that moment impacts the rest of the Formula 1 grid.
On the first day of the sport’s annual summer shutdown, Sainz announced his long-anticipated decision for the 2025 F1 season, sharing the news that he signed a “multi-year” contract to driver for Williams starting next season. That decision, which many other drivers pointed to as the major holdup in sorting the rest of the 2025 driver lineup, could finally lead to the rest of the grid becoming finalized over the next few weeks.
At the moment four seats remain available: A seat at Visa Cash App RB F1 Team alongside Yuki Tsunoda, a seat at Alpine alongside Pierre Gasly, a seat at Sauber/Audi alongside Nico Hülkenberg, and perhaps the most coveted seat of all, the Mercedes spot next to George Russell.
(Yes there are — as there always seem to be — rumblings of additional movement at Red Bull. One of the team’s key figures, Dr. Helmut Marko, fanned those flames in recent days when he mentioned that the 2025 lineup would be “reshuffled” following announcements that both Sergio Pérez and Daniel Ricciardo would remain at Red Bull and VCARB for the rest of the season. However, let us put those rumors aside for now as they are just rumors).
How might those last four seats be filled? Here are the options for each seat, and a prediction.
Alpine
Key contenders: Mick Schumacher, Jack Doohan
Prediction: Jack Doohan
Alpine has their next Team Principal, as the organization announced earlier this week that Oliver Oakes would step into that role following the summer break, as Bruno Famin departs the position to focus on overseeing the rest of Renault’s motorsport program.
The team already announced that Pierre Gasly will be returning for next year, having signed a new “multi-year” contract. But who will be his teammate? Alpine made a serious run at Sainz but with the Spanish driver signing with Williams, their next two options are Mick Schumacher — the former full-time driver at Haas who now competes for Alpine on their World Endurance Championship side — and current reserve driver Jack Doohan.
Both have participated in a series of testing sessions for Alpine in recent weeks, and given the appointment of Oakes this week a youth movement seems appropriate. But which young driver might they pick? Both have their strengths (Schumacher his experience on the grid, Doohan his work for the team as a reserve and in the simulator) but if forced to make a prediction, Doohan might have the edge.
Plus, reporting out of Italian media the past few days makes it seem like that is a done deal. However, nothing is final until the ink is on the contract.
Mercedes
Key contenders: Valtteri Bottas, Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Prediction: Andrea Kimi Antonelli
At the outset Max Verstappen is not listed here, and with good reason. While Toto Wolff has continually discussed Verstappen as an option for Mercedes — deftly needling Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner in the process — Verstappen’s continued references to his long-term contract at Red Bull, and his dismissals of a switch, indicate to me that he is staying with Red Bull long term.
Having said that, all the signs indicate that Mercedes is going to tap the driver often described as the “next Verstappen” for 2025. While Andrea Kimi Antonelli’s F2 season got off to a slow start he has improved his form in recent weeks. he notched his first F2 victory with a win in the Sprint Race at Silverstone and followed that with his first F2 Feature Race win at the Hungaroring. If Mercedes wants to play it slow with Antonelli they could bring Valtteri Bottas back, but the signs seem to be pointing toward the young phenom.
Sauber
Key contenders: Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu
Prediction: Valtteri Bottas
When Ferrari announced that Lewis Hamilton was leaving Mercedes for the Scuderia in 2025, many immediately believed that paved the way for Sainz to move to Sauber ahead of the team becoming the Audi works outfit in 2026.
But with Sainz headed to Williams, that means there is still a spot at Sauber alongside Nico Hülkenberg ahead of the switch to German-based Audi.
Current Sauber drivers Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri Bottas seem the most likely contenders, however, the recent news that Jonathan Wheatley will join Audi as their Team Principal following a gardening period after leaving Red Bull could open the door to the odd driver out at VCARB.
Absent that, however, between Zhou and Bottas the veteran appears the safer option, and his experience could provide critical feedback as Sauber looks to the new regulations in 2026, as well as the move to Audi.
VCARB
Key contenders: Liam Lawson, Daniel Ricciardo
Prediction: Liam Lawson
From where I sit, this seat might be the toughest to predict.
Those who are enamored with the idea of “palace intrigue” at Red Bull may point to how this decision is handled as evidence of who has the upper hand on the team between Marko and Horner, as it would appear from media comments made by both figures that they each have their preferences.
But what might give Liam Lawson the edge is the fear of missing out on the next young and talented driver in their organization. Marko’s comments recently that there is a push from the board at Red Bull to return VCARB to a “junior team” status, with an associated focus on driver development, could push the team in that direction. Daniel Ricciardo remains one of the more talented drivers on the grid, and certainly one of the most marketable, but picking Lawson would be a move made with an eye on the future.
Perhaps a future at Red Bull alongside Verstappen.
