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Deshaun Watson’s terrible play is going to cost his coach his job.
The slow start of Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has some fans questioning when the team can move on from the struggling QB. Despite having the most guaranteed money at signing of any player in NFL history, he’s 24th in passing yards, 31st in completion percentage, 30th in yards per attempt, 30th in quarterback rating, and 30th in QBR plus he’s taken the fifth-most sacks in the NFL this season. Unfortunately for fans asking, the structure of that guaranteed money in his contract makes it impossible to cut him for several more years.
In 2022, Watson was able to pit multiple teams against each other to secure his very lucrative contract. His entire five-year, $230 million deal is fully guaranteed, a first in NFL history and something that hasn’t been replicated by the big-money contracts since. The way that NFL contracts work, all of the remaining guaranteed money would count against the salary cap of the current season if Watson is released. In his deal, $184 million total for the 2024, 2025, and 2026 seasons would be accelerated onto the current year if he was released right now for a total dead cap hit of $220 million. (For reference, the entire NFL salary cap for a whole team is $224.8 million in 2023.) If he’s released after the season, it is still $201 million of dead cap space in 2024, which would add $137 million to his Browns cap number, a figure too high to actually fit. The story is the same but with slightly smaller numbers in 2025.
If we’re talking just a normal release, it wouldn’t be until the 2026 offseason that it’s even feasible. Yes, his dead cap hit would be $73 million at that point, but with a $64 million cap number if he’s on the team, it would only cost the Browns $9 million more in cap room. That would leave about a quarter of their cap space tied up by a player not on their team.
If they were willing to find a trade partner for Watson (and there were apparently suitors in March of 2022), it would still be nearly impossible even after the season. The Browns would break even on their cap, so that’s not the problem, but a new team would inherit $138 million in guaranteed money for a player that had an awful season in 2022 and didn’t play in 2021.
These kinds of massive salary cap albatrosses put a large strain on coaches and general managers because it’s much easier to replace them than it is to absorb the cap hit. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is paid $3.5 million per season and is signed through 2024, so it’s only a few million dollars to try and start over with the offense.
Two current big-money QBs are already on their next head coach after they signed their deals and underperformed.
In Denver, the Broncos gave Russell Wilson a five-year, $243 million contract before he had taken a regular season snap for the team. Paired with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett, the duo was supposed to finally be able to compete with the dominant Kansas City Chiefs in 2022. Instead, Hackett didn’t even make it through the season before being fired and the Broncos finished dead last in points scored.
With a dead cap number of $107 million, the Broncos couldn’t replace the quarterback (again) so instead they brought in Sean Payton, one of the most respected offensive minds of the last 25 years. Wilson and Denver’s offense have been in the middle of the pack statistically so far in 2023, but their offensive averages are higher than last year.
The Cardinals also moved on from their coach following the 2022 season after former first overall pick Kyler Murray signed his five-year, $230.5 million contract extension in July 2022. His final raw stats from last season are dampened by the fact that he tore his ACL in December and missed the final six games, but his per-game numbers weren’t very good either. He finished 33rd out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt and yards per completion and 19th in yards per game. He was 23rd in quarterback rating and 19th in QBR, even with offensive-minded Kliff Kingsbury calling the offense.
Kingsbury also signed an extension in the 2022 offseason, but the Cardinals are writing him checks totaling nearly $30 million after firing him. It’s still a lot less than what they owe Murray.
Arizona likely can’t move on from Murray until after the 2024 season. Releasing him following the current year would mean $81.5 million in dead cap hit, significantly higher than his $51.9 million cap hit for being on the roster. Then in 2025, they can save $12.4 million by releasing him.
Unlike the Broncos, when the Cardinals fired their offensive-minded coach, Arizona brought in a head coach from the defensive side of the ball who hired a first-time offensive coordinator. Josh Dobbs is in at quarterback for Arizona as Murray recovers from his torn ACL and he could miss the entire season rehabbing if the Cardinals remain stuck at the bottom of the NFC standings.
A little further down the list are some case studies for moving on from massive contracts. Jared Goff’s $24.7 million and Matthew Stafford’s $17.8 million dead cap hits were the largest in NFL history at the time they were traded for each other. Last offseason, the Falcons took on the largest dead cap hit in NFL history ($40.5 million) when they traded Matt Ryan after getting involved in the bidding for Watson. This offseason, it was Aaron Rodgers and his $40.3 million dead cap hit the Packers swallowed to move him.
Watson ($63 million), Wilson ($68 million) and Murray ($46 million) would all set the dead cap record if traded after the season, and that’s if you could find another team willing to take on the significant guaranteed money in their contracts. Releasing them is out of the question because their guaranteed salaries would make the dead cap numbers substantially higher, so they are all on their current rosters through at least 2024. It’s up to the people around them to help them live up to those massive extensions.
We saw some hesitancy last offseason on the part of the Baltimore Ravens regarding Lamar Jackson, and he received $135 million guaranteed. The contract is three seasons where they wouldn’t be able to move on. And that’s the crux of the whole argument: how many coaches and GMs can survive multiple sub-par seasons of quarterback play when the owner has signed one player to such a locked-in contract? Hackett and Kingsbury couldn’t. Stefanski may find out soon.
