Rory McIlroy a near lock for 6th Race to Dubai title as chase begins in Abu Dhabi

Rory McIlroy is back in the Middle East, where he will likely win his sixth Race to Dubai title on the DP World Tour.

After an agonizing 2024 campaign that featured a U.S. Open heartbreak, a near miss at the Irish Open at Royal County Down, and a playoff loss to Billy Horschel at the BMW PGA Championship, Rory McIlroy is all but assured to end the year with a big win.

He arrives at this week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship—the penultimate tournament of the DP World Tour season and the first DP World Tour playoff event—holding a massive lead in the season-long Race to Dubai standings. McIlroy leads South African Thriston Lawrence by 1,572.39 points. But given that the DP World Tour awards the winner of this week’s event with 1,500 points, McIlroy looks destined to win his sixth Harry Vardon Trophy.

Believe it or not, Collin Montgomerie has won eight Order of Merits, a DP World Tour record that has stood since 2005. But McIlroy can draw closer to that with six, which would tie the late, great Seve Ballesteros for second all-time.

Given that the Northern Irishman has plenty of golf ahead of him in the coming years, you have to imagine he will match Montgomerie someday. However, who knows what professional golf will look like in the future. The DP World Tour, the PGA Tour, and the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), LIV Golf’s beneficiary, continue to work towards a deal that would reunite—and perhaps restructure—the sport.

Yet, McIlroy has dominated the DP World Tour for years despite playing part-time. He will likely continue to play 10 to 12 events on the DP World Tour per calendar year, including the four majors. This year looked a little different, though. Unlike the PGA Tour, the Olympic Men’s Golf Competition counted as an official DP World Tour event. Therefore, McIlroy will have 13 starts under his belt by next week’s DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. But in the six non-majors/non-Olympic events he has played thus far, McIlroy won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, has three runner-ups, a T-4 at the Scottish Open, and a T-25 at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in St. Andrews. No wonder why he has such a significant lead.

In actuality, McIlroy would have to finish dead last—or near dead last—this week and next for him not to win the Harry Vardon Trophy. Given his success this season, the chances of that happening are slim to none. But on the flip side, McIlroy can wrap up the season-long title this week with a win or a strong finish. That would cap a rollercoaster ride of a year for McIlroy.

He will begin the first round of the Abu Dhabi Championship playing alongside Lawrence and Rasmus Højgaard, who is third in the rankings, at 12:23 a.m. ET on Thursday. Coverage begins on Golf Channel at 2 a.m. ET, as Abu Dhabi is nine hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time (EST).

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.