Stanford’s iconic streak, which began when Ronald Reagan was president, may be at its end

Stanford hasn’t missed the NCAA Tournament since 1987. Now in the ACC, Kate Paye tries to keep Tara VanDerveer’s streak alive .

The NCAA held its first official postseason tournament for Division I women’s college basketball in 1982. Every tournament, including that one and since, has been played with the Tennessee Lady Volunteers in it.

Stanford owns the second-longest streak for appearances in the NCAA Tournament with 36. The Cardinal missed the field in Tara VanDerveer’s first two seasons at the helm in 1986 and 1987, and then the tournament was never played again without Stanford in it. As she became the winningest coach in the history of college basketball, Stanford appeared in every Big Dance from 1988 through 2024. Along the way, she went to 13 Final Fours and won three national titles in a stretch spanning nearly four decades.

Like Pat Summitt did with Tennessee, like Geno Auriemma did with UConn, like Muffet McGraw did with Notre Dame, and like Kim Mulkey did with Baylor, VanDerveer made Stanford synonymous with the women’s NCAA Tournament. As the sport grew in popularity, the Cardinal became one its signature programs.

“Tara is the best coach in the history of the game,” said VanDerveer’s longtime understudy, Kate Paye.

And then, a few weeks after last season ended, VanDerveer called it quits, retiring at the age of 70. She went out with the Pac-12, a conference she helped turn into a great league for women’s college basketball.

Her former player and assistant coach for 17 years, Paye, took the reins of the program as it embarked on a new era of Cardinal women’s basketball: On July 1, 2024, Stanford – along with Cal and SMU – officially joined the Atlantic Coast Conference. As the Pac-12 dissolved because of greed and mismanagement over TV revenue from football, Stanford and Cal jumped aboard the first real lifeboat that came their way, even if it was coming from a conference largely based multiple time zones away. The choice was joining the ACC, or suffering the fate of Oregon State and Washington State, left behind and forced to scrabble together partnerships with mid-major conferences.

These two big changes for Stanford – VanDerveer’s retirement and the dissolution of the Pac-12 leading to Paye’s elevation and joining the ACC – also coincided with some of the best players leaving the program. All-American and two-time Pac-12 Player of the Year Cameron Brink became the second overall pick in the WNBA Draft, and Katrina McClain Award-winner Kiki Iriafen transferred to USC. Brink and Iriafen both averaged double-doubles last season as Stanford went to the Sweet 16. Also gone after exhausting her eligibility was Hannah Jump, an All-Pac-12 guard who started 71 games in the previous two seasons.

Still, folks were optimistic that Stanford would be successful in the ACC. The Cardinal were picked to finish seventh in the league in the preseason poll and even received a first-place vote. Surely, at the very least – many thought – Stanford would make the NCAA Tournament field.

But that prediction may not come to fruition. More importantly, Stanford’s streak of NCAA Tournament appearances may be coming to an end.

Entering the ACC Tournament this week as the No. 11 seed, the Cardinal finds itself on the wrong side of the tournament bubble. In his latest bracketology at ESPN, Charlie Creme projects Stanford among the so-called “next four out.”

“It is going to take a lot (to make the NCAA Tournament),” Creme told SB Nation of Stanford’s outlook. “They are quite a ways from the actual field. They would need two impactful wins at the ACC Tournament and then losing from (other bubble teams).”

Her Hoop Stats bracketologist Megan Gauer agrees.

“I think we’re about to see their tournament streak end,” Gauer told SB Nation. “Stanford has a couple good wins… but not enough to compensate for the 13 losses and a sub-.500 conference record.”

But Paye enters the ACC Tournament this week in Greensboro, North Carolina with renewed optimism in her squad.

“Our team is very confident. We’re playing really well and our team loves playing together,” Paye said. “It’s March, so as a basketball player, this is the most exciting time of year. What we’ve learned over the years is that the teams that are peaking going into tournament time are the teams that really love each other and just want to play more games together. I feel like our team has that.”

Stanford has won five of its last six games, giving them a 16-13 overall record and an 8-10 mark in ACC play. One of those wins was over an AP-ranked team in Georgia Tech.

One of the reasons for Stanford’s late-season surge are changes Paye made was to the rotation. She inserted Chloe Clardy into the starting lineup and gave more minutes to off-the-bench contributors in Tess Heal and Courtney Ogden.

Heal, a junior transfer from Santa Clara, is the only player in the country shooting better than 50 percent from the floor, 50 percent from 3-point range, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Ogden is averaging 16.5 points, five rebounds and four assists over her last four games, and Clardy scored a career-high 30 points to help Stanford win at Virginia Tech.

“Our team is playing well and with a lot of confidence,” Paye said. “I’m just really excited and proud of the incredible improvement to our team. When I think back to our first road trip, I feel like we’re a totally different team. We’re much improved… People are feeling very comfortable in their roles.”

The Cardinal are 48th in the NET rankings, ahead of fellow bubble teams like Princeton, Saint Joseph’s, Arizona and Colorado. They have just one Quad 1 win, but are 7-4 combined against Quad 2 and 3 teams.

There’s a chance for Stanford to make a run to the NCAA Tournament and keep its streak alive, but the road there could be bumpy. Should the Cardinal beat Clemson on Wednesday night, they’ll have to then defeat Louisville and Duke – both of which would be Quad 1 victories – to feel comfortable about getting into the NCAA Tournament. Stanford lost to both the Cardinals and the Blue Devils on the road this season by an average margin of 17 points.

Again, indeed, it won’t be easy for Stanford. The Cardinal went 2-7 in ACC road games this year and the tournament in Greensboro will probably feel a lot like a true road game for the Californians.

“We’re traveling a heck of a lot less than Stanford is,” Clemson coach Shawn Poppie said of the upcoming matchup.

Paye says that her players haven’t complained about the travel, but Stanford’s road record shows that playing a few timezones away will be another obstacle as it has been for most of the season for the ACC newcomers. However the tournament plays out though, Paye has taken the ups and downs of her first year in-stride and hopes that it helps her build in years to come.

“Honestly, it’s been a really fun journey,” Paye said. “This is not about me – it’s about the incredible women on our team who have been extremely unselfish, extremely hardworking, extremely coachable through a lot of adversity. They’ve really stuck together. I’m really proud of them. It’s been challenging, but in a good way. I know that I have grown as a coach and I’ve learned a lot.”