Super Bowl expert picks: NFL analysts leaning towards Eagles over Chiefs

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A majority of NFL experts are siding with the Eagles in the 2023 Super Bowl.

Has there ever been a more surprising Super Bowl underdog than the Kansas City Chiefs? Despite being the NFL’s best team for the last five seasons, boasting two-time quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and posting the AFC’s best record at 14-3 with a win over Joe Burrow and the Bengals in the AFC Championship game, the Chiefs enter their third Super Bowl in the last four years as 1.5-point underdogs to the Eagles, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Though Mahomes was a full participant in every practice this week and Andy Reid insists he will have no limitations following a high ankle sprain in the AFC Championship, it appears that most experts, fans, and bettors are leaning towards Philadelphia capturing their second Super Bowl victory in the last six years.

Here’s which team Fox, ESPN, NFL.com, former Chiefs star Tyreek Hill and others are picking to become the next league champions on Sunday.

Fox Sports: The Chiefs come out ahead

At Fox Sports, eight of 12 writers and gambling experts are picking the Chiefs. The four to pick Philadelphia were Warren Sharp, Jason McIntyre, Carmen Vitali, and Greg Auman. Of the Eagles, Sharp said:

There are a few things I believe about this Super Bowl: I think the Eagles defense isn’t as unbeatable as public opinion believes, and if there is a unit that isn’t getting as much hype as deserved in this game, it’s actually the Chiefs offense. Their offense has been thoroughly tested and has passed almost every test.

I do not believe, however, that Kansas City will have success on the ground. This game will come down to Patrick Mahomes and how elite he can play. He cannot afford to have his ankle re-injured or even tweaked if the Chiefs want to win this game.

Fans on Twitter also picked the Eagles in a poll:

But most went with the Chiefs, mostly because of Mahomes, including Geoff Schwartz:

I’m going to side with the team with the best quarterback in this game, and that’s Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes. Yes, the Eagles have advantages on the offensive and defensive lines, but the Chiefs have multiple All-Pros on their lines as well.

ESPN: 45 of 71 experts choose Eagles over Chiefs

In a poll of ESPN analysts, 63.4 percent are going with the Eagles to win. Among those siding with Philadelphia are Dan Orlovsky, Ed Werder, Field Yates, Jeremy Fowler, Joe Buck, Mel Kiper, Mike Clay, Rex Ryan, Robert Griffin III, analytics writer Seth Walder, Steve Levy, and Todd McShay.

And the 26 to choose Kansas City include analytics expert/Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz, Jeff Darlington, Linda Cohn, Louis Riddick, Matt Hasselbeck, and Mina Kimes.

Interestingly, two writers are taking the long odds (+5000) on Eagles running back Miles Sanders to win Super Bowl MVP: Fowler and Seahawks beat writer Brady Henderson.

Bill Barnwell picked the Chiefs.

MMQB: 4-4 split

The writers at SI’s Monday Morning Quarterback were split on which team will win the Super Bowl: Four chose the Eagles, four chose the Chiefs. Albert Breer picked Kansas City to win, 27-24.

Eventually, the weight of carrying an offense hobbled by quarterback injuries broke (DeMeco) Ryans’s unit. But that doesn’t mean his plan didn’t work. And the Chiefs’ defense, while not as good as the Niners’, won’t have as much asked of it, with Patrick Mahomes running the show on the other side of the ball. So put me down for a dogfight of a game, with Kansas City’s force-of-nature at quarterback, as usual, being the difference maker.

On the other side, Conor Orr has Philadelphia winning by a point, 31-30.

I think the Eagles are going to be able to manipulate and contain Chris Jones better than the Bengals did. Thus, I think the Eagles are going to be able to run their offense without much of an issue. And if the Eagles are able to run their offense without much of an issue, I think they are going to score a boatload of points.

Greg Bishop, Andrew Brandt, and Mitch Goldich also picked the Eagles. Michael Rosenberg, John Pluym, and Gary Gramling picked the Chiefs.

NFL.com: Eagles have slight advantage, 13-11

At NFL’s official website, there’s a slight majority picking Philadelphia. Of those picking the Eagles are Judy Battista, Jeffri Chadiha, Chad Reuter, Marc Ross, Gennaro Filice, Adam Rank, Bobby Kownack, Lance Zierlein, Christian Gonzalez, Nick Shook, Marc Sessler, Tom Blair, and Brenna White. The most confident is Ross, who has the Eagles winning 30-21.

Philadelphia has been the most talented, balanced and well-coached team for most of this season. The edge Patrick Mahomes has over Jalen Hurts will be negated by Mahomes’ bum ankle and the ferocious Philly pass rush, which will harass No. 15 all night, much like the Bucs did in Super Bowl LV.

Of those picking the Chiefs are DeAngelo Hall, Eric Edholm, Brooke Cersosimo, Dan Hanzus, David Carr, Dan Parr, Jeremy Bergman, Grant Gordon, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Baca, and Kevin Patra. Though fewer people picked the Chiefs, the scores were more lopsided in Kansas City’s favor. In fact, Hanzus is choosing the Chiefs in a blowout, 37-17.

The days of feasting on Daniel Jones and Josh Johnson never seemed so far away for the Eagles, who get cooked by Patrick Mahomes on the sport’s biggest stage.

Computer simulation of Madden 23: Eagles 31, Chiefs 17

A computer simulation has predicted that the Eagles will win by two touchdowns. The simulation has an 11-8 record over 19 seasons, including getting the Patriots 28-24 win over the Seahawks exactly correct by score.

However, the Madden simulation has been wrong in four of the last five years, so perhaps this prediction goes in favor of Kansas City. It is the largest margin of victory predicted by the computer simulation since an expected 16-point victory for New England over Philadelphia back in 2004, a game that the Patriots did win but only by a 24-21 final score.

The New York Post: Eagles

The Wildcat predicts a 32-23 Philadelphia victory.

You could discern from the general ebb and flow of the wagering market — for what on the surface was at least a normal reflection of public confusion regarding what may or may not be the right side — the Chiefs, with their generally glossier roster and longer sustained exposure under the modern public’s eye, gained the bulk of early market attention.

Alas, before you could say “Len Dawson,” the broad market took the bit between its teeth and dragged the Eagles into sustained public favoritism. This surprised many, however marginally. The modern Chiefs have been a public team for a longer period of time than has Philadelphia — but the market quickly took Philly seriously again. The Eagles got off to their snappy early-season start and have done little to discourage their loyalists.

Tyreek Hill: Chiefs

Dak Prescott: Chiefs

Michael B. Jordan: Chiefs

Rich Gannon: Chiefs

‘Inside the NFL’: 2 of 3 choose Philly

Julian Edelman, Brandon Marshall chose Eagles, Phil Simms chose the Chiefs.

Darren Rovell: Eagles

‘First Take’: 3 of 4 pick Eagles

The Ringer’s Bill Simmons: Eagles to cover the spread

Chris Berman: Chiefs by 3