Can anyone in the final four beat India?
The semi-finals of the T20 Cricket World Cup begin on Wednesday, and at least on paper it looks like 2024 is India’s tournament to lose.
Unpredictability was the story of the USA/West Indies World Cup with some of the sport’s most dominant teams falling by the wayside in the group stages to set up a rather unlikely final four. Naturally the most attention is on India, who have gone a perfect 6-0 in the tournament with an astronomical +2.01 net run rate in the second group stage — but that doesn’t mean they’ll win by default.
So let’s take a look at each of the final four in this tournament and see if anyone has the firepower to stop the favorites.
Afghanistan
Key strength: Rahmanullah Gurbaz
Key weakness: Bowling
This might seem like a surprise for the uninitiated, but Afghanistan is a legitimate powerhouse in T20. While they lack the staying power to be in the test match elite, the national thrives in short-format cricket where their prolific batting can shine.
The biggest difference in this World Cup to those past is Rahmanullah Gurbaz. The 22-year-old phenom can be inconsistent, but when his bat is hot it’s very difficult to stop him. This game to the fore against Australia in the second group stage when he finished with a ludicrously efficient 60 runs off 49 balls, despite facing the best of the Aussie bowling attack. Gurbaz leads the World Cup in batting average at over 40 runs per game, and that makes him the ultimate x-factor.
That said, Afghanistan really struggle to stop their opponents from putting up big scores. This team allowed the West Indies to score 218, India put up 181 — and against the top teams in this tournament that just doesn’t lead to a recipe for success.
This team has the potential to beat South Africa in their semi-final, but after that it’s difficult to see them getting past either England or India.
England
Key strength: Batting depth
Key weakness: Bowling
England feels like a team that’s almost there, but still has a little ways to go before they can truly take the step needed to be world champions. When it comes to scoring the teams has ample depth with Harry Brook, Jos Butler and Phil Salt all being top-tier T20 batsmen, but the big issue is a lack of bowling economy.
In this tournament the England bowlers have failed to place in the Top 15 in any statistical area. Their economy has been average, there’s been no signature performance against an elite team, and the best performances from the attack have come at the expense of b-tier cricket teams like Australia and Oman.
The best way to characterize the British bowling is that it’s good enough to reach the semi-finals. However, even with their battling depth they drew a short straw by landing India in the draw. It takes a complete game that can win in every phase to best India, and right now the bowling just isn’t up to par.
India
Key strength: Bowling depth
Key weakness: Pitch management
There’s no doubt that India had a few scares on their way to the semi finals. A narrow win over Pakistan and a near-loss to the United States showed some notable holes in their armor — but it was much more about struggling to adapt to a questionable pitch in Nassau County.
India has all the batting needed to handle any team in the world, but up to this point they haven’t really needed any run-scoring heroics. The bowling attack has been so good that it’s been easy to get trapped in a vortex against them, struggling to mount any kind of run total.
Jasprit Bumrah and Arshdeep Singh in particular have been phenomenal in this tournament, and represent the best 1-2 bowling attack in this tournament. When paired with the scoring potential of Hardik Pandya and Rohit Sharma it makes for a team poised to win it all.
So long as the next two pitches are easy for India to read they should be able to coast to the finals, where they’ll almost assuredly meet their biggest competition …
South Africa
Key strength: Quinton de Kock
Key weakness: Lack of competition
On paper South Africa have a lot of the traits needed to hang with India and win the World Cup, but the issue is that despite being so deep in this tournament their potential is semi-unknown.
It’s not their fault, but South Africa have strolled through this tournament thanks to an unbelievably easy schedule that has seen them only play one top-tier team (England) in seven games. Outside of that match they’ve been able to feast on the likes of Sri Lanka, Netherlands, Bangladesh, Nepal, and USA. Playing the West Indies was a push, but even then we really don’t know what this team is capable of because of who they’ve dodged.
We do know, however, that Quinton de Kock is an elite T20 batter with a knack for knowing when to score in a hurry, and when he needs to play conservative cricket. A big innings from de Kock could mean South African can win against anyone, but there’s no a lot to hang your hat on here.
Predictions
South Africa defeats Afghanistan
India defeats England
India defeats South Africa to win the 2024 T20 World Cup
