Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
If you wanted to name everything wrong with the Broncos, we’d be here forever.
“Everything I heard about last season, we’re doing the opposite.”
These are the exact words Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton said to USA Today’s Jarrett Bell in an exclusive interview before the season kicked off. Yes, the same interview where he trashed former Broncos head coach, and current Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, saying he conducted “one of the worst coaching jobs in NFL history.”
Well, the thing about talking tough is that you gotta back it up, and through five games, the Denver Broncos and Sean Payton have seemingly wrote a check with their mouth that their play can’t cash. They’re coming off an embarrassing 31-21 loss to those same Jets, with that same Hackett who was crushed for not operating a competent football team.
Everything I heard about last season, we’re doing the opposite, eh? Well it looks like despite a new director and a new script, the Denver Broncos are the same comedy of errors and bad football that they were last year, and the culprit is a little bit of everything.
Let’s start with the play on the field, which has once again been abysmal. Defensively, the Broncos are not only the worst defense in the NFL right now, they might be one of the worst defenses we’ve ever seen fielded by DVOA.
One more DVOA tidbit for tonight.
The Denver Broncos, who had the worst defense ever measured by DVOA through 4 games, also have the worst defense ever measured by DVOA through 5 games.
— Aaron Schatz (@ASchatzNFL) October 9, 2023
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was brought in to replace Ejiro Evero, but that defense has legitimately fallen off a cliff. The defensive shift from a Fangio-style of defense to a more attacking one takes time, especially up front, but being historically bad isn’t just on the coaching. This defensive roster is very bad outside of CB Patrick Surtain II, and there is no true calling card for what they do well. According to Sports Information Solutions, the Broncos are 27th in Pressure Rate, and that has taken a major effect on their pass coverage overall (they were fourth in this same metric last year). Without a true standout pass rusher, and no true second corner opposite Surtain, the Broncos have been getting picked apart, and DC Vance Joseph hasn’t helped very much at all.
Now, let’s talk about the offense, because the sticking point for this team was going to be if QB Russell Wilson could find that magic once again. The short answer is no, he can’t, but the longer, truer answer is that while he can’t be the guy he once was, he’s an improved QB from last year.
His Adjusted EPA per play puts him eighth among qualified QBs this year through five games, compared to 24th at this same point last year. His Positive Play Rate is up to 41.6% from last year, and he’s even taken down his sack rate. Now the real problem here for this offense is this: while Wilson has improved, he’s also 35 years old and cannot mask for the inefficiencies among every other spot on the offense. The offensive line has, and will remain a problem: so far, via SIS, the Broncos are third in Pressure Rate allowed. Wilson is still a bad QB under pressure now because of the waning athleticism, but those problems are exacerbated because of a porous OL. The wide receiver group is inconsistent at best, and the playcalling might be an upgrade from last year but not by much.
Which brings us to the punchline of this comedic football team: the Denver Broncos are poorly coached. Remember those pre-snap penalties Payton griped about in his offseason interview? Yeah well through five games the Broncos are tied for sixth in pre-snap penalties against them. Good job coach, you managed to make a problem last year into an even bigger problem. Perhaps even more damning is how this team falls apart in high leverage situations, namely the second half of football games. Their one win was a comeback win…against the Chicago Bears, but outside of that they’ve been among the worst second half teams in the NFL. They’re tied for third in the NFL in most blown leads this year, and first in most blown 4th quarter leads. In the first half of football games, their offensive EPA per play is sixth in the NFL, with an equal place in Success Rate. In the second half/OT of games, they drop to 31st in EPA/play and 27th in Success Rate.
We can gripe all we want about the talent not being the best, but falling apart in the late parts of games is a reflection of poor coaching and poor game preparation. The offense was supposed to be Payton’s baby, but through five games he can’t get them to execute in the second half. Payton talked big shit about being a better team than they were last year, but right now they remain the butt of every joke, and they deserve to be. When you coach poorly, you deserve to be made fun of. Broncos new ownership paid Payton a lot of money—according to Peter King, he’s the second highest paid coach in all American sports. Payton has failed to live up to that billing, and now with that tied into the Wilson deal that looks worse and worse every week the Broncos lose, it becomes clearer:
The Denver Broncos aren’t a tragedy, but a comedy. They’re the cat that can’t stop stepping on the rake and hitting themselves in the face. They’re Cliff Hanger from Between the Lions, because no matter what they do, they always end up on this cliff, barely hanging on while the NFL laughs at them.
