The New England Patriots have a red zone problem

Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

New England’s struggles in the red zone loom large in loss to Minnesota

The New England Patriots have a huge problem.

Once they enter the red zone on offense, a touchdown becomes an impossible task.

This inability to finish drives with touchdowns, and their lack of execution in the red zone, was on full display in their Thanksgiving night loss to the Minnesota Vikings. On a night where quarterback Mac Jones put together one of his best performances of the season, completing 28 of 39 passes for 382 yards and a pair of touchdowns, New England came out on the losing end by a final score of 33-26.

What did they do on offense when they reached the red zone? Not much at all. The Patriots had two drives reach the end zone, one before halftime and another early in the third quarter.

Both ended in field goals from Nick Folk.

In all, the Patriots ran nine plays on offense in the red zone Thursday night. The results? A three-yard run from Damien Harris, a seven-yard loss on a reverse from Kendrick Bourne, a sack for no gain, a 13-yard completion to Nelson Agholor, a quarterback spike to stop the clock, a one-yard run from Rhamondre Stevenson, and three incompletions. (If you want to fold in one more play, that came after the seven-yard loss that pushed them out of the red zone, then you can add in a five-yard completion to Agholor).

Nine plays. 13 yards. No touchdowns, and six points.

Yes, there is a bit of controversy around one of those incompletions, as it looked as if Jones and Hunter Henry had connected on a six-yard touchdown pass on their drive in the third quarter. But upon review the play was ruled incomplete for, let’s just say reasons, and the Patriots settled for another field goal.

You make the call:

Even if that call was allowed to stand, it would have been just New England’s 13th touchdown on 31 red zone trips this season, giving them a red zone touchdown percentage of 42.0%.

That would still keep them ranked 31st in the league, behind the Indianapolis Colts, and ahead of the Denver Broncos.

That is not great company.

What were the issues on Thursday night in the red zone? The same issues we have seen crop up from the Patriots’ offense in the red zone all season: An overall lack of consistency. Failures in pass protection, curious offensive play-calls, and missed opportunities in the passing game.

Take the reverse to Bourne. New England was handed a perfect opportunity to take a 14-7 lead late in the first quarter after Jonathan Jones intercepted Kirk Cousins, and returned the interception down to the Minnesota 17-yard line.

After a three-yard run from Harris on 1st and 10 play, the Patriots face a 2nd and 7 at the Vikings’ 14-yard line. This play, however, is dead from the start. Watch as Za’Darius Smith, the backside edge defender, stays home and is in position to make the play. But he is not alone, as center James Ferentz is tasked with blocking defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, who is aligned over the left guard. Ferentz tries to get there, but Phillips shoots inside of him:

That put New England into a 3rd and 14 situation. Minnesota rushes just four on the next play, dropping into Quarters/Cover 4. The Patriots run a flat-seven/smash combination on the left, with Henry running a deep corner route and Bourne releasing to the flat. Agholor runs a shallow crosser, working right-to-left, while DaVante Parker runs a post route starting from the right side of the field.

There is perhaps a window for Jones to squeeze in a throw to Henry on the corner route, but he is pressured off the right edge by Danielle Hunter, who beats right tackle Yondy Cajuste. Instead of trying to force in the throw to Henry, Jones throws the shallow and the Patriots bring on Nick Folk:

Late in the first half, the Patriots again had a chance to put a touchdown on the board, with a drive in the closing minutes that got down into the red zone. But with just one timeout remaining, New England needed to be smart with clock management.

On a 1st and 10 play from the Vikings’ 18-yard line, they looked to push the ball into the end zone, but interior pressure forced Jones off the spot early in the down, and he slid to the turf after a quick scramble, forcing the Patriots to burn that one timeout:

The Vikings have a pass-rushing package in the game, that puts Smith inside over rookie left guard Cole Strange. The rookie slides out towards Smith, but gives up his inside edge, and that’s exactly where the pass rusher attacks. Jones hits his drop depth and hitches up in the pocket, but as he starts his throwing motion — perhaps to target Henry on an out-breaking route to the right side of the field — the QB sees a flash of color on the inside.

Smith.

Jones pulls the ball down, and eventually gives himself up.

The Patriots would pick up a first down on the next play, with Jones hitting Agholor for a gain of 13. But lacking timeouts, Jones is forced to spike the football, stopping the clock with nine seconds left in the half. New England tried one more play to reach the end zone, calling for a four verticals concept, but Jones’s throw to Bourne is broken up:

Perhaps if New England still had their last timeout, Jones would have hung in the pocket a second longer and looked to one of the inside seam routes, both of which break open after he releases this throw. But with the clock an issue, he’s forced to make a quick read and throw, and he tries to connect with Bourne, and the pass falls incomplete.

Also, if the Patriots still had that timeout, perhaps they would try one more offensive play. Instead, they bring on Folk.

Their final red zone possession, the one that ended with the Henry play that was ruled an incompletion, started this way:

There seems to be some confusion here.

The Patriots align in an empty formation, with Stevenson aligned outside and Agholor in the slot. Agholor runs a quick out route, but with the running back running a quick hitch, both receivers are in the same area. Jones’s throw sails over both their heads, and falls incomplete.

Having poured through many versions of New England’s playbook over the years, unless offensive coordinator Matt Patricia installed some new route combination, someone made a mistake.

Another field goal would be the end result.

New England is trying to keep pace in an extremely competitive AFC East, and remain in the playoff hunt in a deep conference. But their ineffectiveness in the red zone, and their inconsistency in that area of the field, is a problem. Returning to the red zone touchdown percentage rankings for a moment, of all the teams in the playoff hunt in the AFC, the Patriots — raking 31st — are ten spots behind the next AFC competitor, the Baltimore Ravens who rank 21st.

Even the New York Jets, who just benched Zach Wilson, have scored a touchdown on over half of their red zone possessions. 55.2% of the time to be exact, in stark contrast to New England’s 38.7%. (Again, even if you want to give New England credit for Henry’s play against Minnesota, that only bumps them to 42%).

The Patriots need to get better down in the red zone, and with Stevenson and Harris, two very good running backs, you would think they would be better in that area of the field. Against Minnesota, their under-center play-action passing game was clicking on plays like this one to Henry:

Perhaps continued success on designs like this one will create better scoring chances for the Patriots in the red zone as well.

But until the Patriots figure out these issues, and improve in the red zone on offense, they are going to see more drives end in field goals.

Which is rarely, if ever, a winning proposition in the NFL.