The Raiders’ horrific drafting is coming back to haunt them

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Cutting Jonathan Abram is the next in a long line of Raiders draft botches

Over the course of 2018, the Oakland Raiders made three huge decisions. Decisions that not only rocked the NFL, but shaped their future as an organization.

Decisions that are coming home to roost.

The first decision came in January, and it was a stunner. Jon Gruden would be leaving the ESPN broadcast booth to return to the sidelines, as the Raiders’ next head coach. He was handed a ten-year deal to turn the organization around, after Jack Del Rio guided the Raiders to a losing season in two of his three years at the helm.

The second decision came in September of 2018, and it too was a shocker. The Raiders were trading talented pass rusher Khalil Mack to the Chicago Bears. In the deal, Oakland sent Mack, a second-round pick and a conditional selection — which turned out to be a seventh-round pick — to the Bears for a first-round pick in 2019, a third-round pick in 2019, a sixth-round pick in 2019, and a first-round pick in 2020.

Then as the calendar year drew to a close, the third decision followed. Having parted with general manager Reggie McKenzie at the start of December, the organization hired Mike Mayock, best known for his work as an analyst with the NFL Network, as their next general manager on the final day of the year.

Three decisions, three stunners.

In many ways, the book was closed on this era Tuesday, when the Raiders released safety Johnathan Abram, after failing to find a trading partner for him.

Why? Because he one of six first-round picks made during the Gruden/Mayock Era, and represents the missed opportunities for the organization during that period.

Armed with three first-round picks in the 2019 draft — their own, one from the Mack trade and another from the Amari Cooper trade that sent the wide receiver to the Dallas Cowboys — here is what Gruden and Mayock put on the board with those selections:

Clemson DE Clelin Ferrell, the fourth-overall selection
Alabama RB Josh Jacobs, the 24th-overall selection

Mississippi State S Johnathan Abram, the 27th-overall selection

Only Jacobs has been a consistent performer for the organization during the past few seasons, but even still, the Raiders made the decision to decline his fifth-year option for next season. The Raiders reached the same conclusion with Ferrell.

Now they have cut ties with Abram as well.

Consensus big boards are a tool for measuring draft decisions, and while they might be an inaccurate tool, they do provide a means of checking how teams attacked the draft relative to the overall state of play. In addition, when you start adding in information to the consensus boards from forecasters — for example, Arif Hasan (now with Pro Football Network) — splits his consensus big board into two groups, with “forecasters” including people who “have access to NFL personnel departments,” you start getting data points from teams themselves.

Revisiting the 2019 draft from the Raiders, we can start with Jacobs, who was the most successful of the first-round picks from this period for the organization. Over his career with the Raiders, Jacobs has rushed for 34 touchdowns — including 6 this season — and he finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting back in 2019.

Viewing the Jacobs pick through the consensus big board lens, it was perhaps the Raiders’ best pick in the first round. According to the board put together by NFL Mock Draft Database, Jacobs was the 28th-ranked player in the draft, and the Raiders added him with the 24th pick.

On Hasan’s board, the evaluators ranked Jacobs as the 25th-best player in the draft, while the forecasters viewed him as the 17th-ranked player in the draft.

So perhaps they got the Jacobs pick right, even with the recent decision to decline his fifth-year option.

That brings us to the other two.

Abram, the physical safety out of Mississippi State, was an interesting evaluation. There is a case to be made that Abram was perhaps a throwback to a different era, considering the modern world of two-deep coverages that need safeties that hold up in coverage. Lance Zierlein, the main draft analyst for NFL.com, described Abram this way:

Blunt force-striker with the measurables and play demeanor teams look for from a down safety with nickel linebacker qualities. Abrams did an admirable job in coverage in Mississippi State’s scheme but might not have the anticipation and ball skills to hold up in extended coverage duties. Abrams shines as a physical run defender with pursuit speed and energy to play sideline to sideline. He grades out as one of the better options for teams looking to deploy an effective “big nickel” defender near the box.

That sounds like a first-round safety in, say, 1990. Not 2019.

But the Raiders drafted him at the end of the first round, despite every consensus big board viewing him as a second-round pick, as Zierlein viewed him.

During his time with the organization, Abram has lived up to the parts of his profile that highlighted his ability to play down in the box. The defensive back has racked up 255 total tackles so far in his NFL career, but he has also allowed an NFL Passer Rating of 118.0 when targeted in the passing game.

Then there is Ferrell.

The Raiders certainly needed to bolster their pass rush during the 2019 offseason. During the 2018 regular season, Oakland generated pressure on opposing passers on just 18.1% of dropbacks, which was dead-last in the NFL. So adding an edge defender was a need.

While Ferrell was viewed as a first-round prospect, he was still a reach at fourth overall. According to Hasan’s consensus big board, evaluators viewed Ferrell as the 20th-ranked player in the draft, and the fifth-ranked EDGE. Forecasters ranked Ferrell in similar fashion, placing him 19th-overall and in the fifth spot of pass rushers.

Instead, the Raiders made Ferrell the second edge taken — after Nick Bosa, who went second overall — and passed on other options at the position, including Brian Burns and Montez Sweat. Rashan Gary was another option, who was viewed at the time as a 5-technique defensive tackle, but forecasters viewed him as not just the top prospect in that role, but the ninth-best player in the draft.

At this point in their careers, Sweat has 24 sacks, Gary has 22.5, and Burns has 31.5.

Ferrell has 8.5.

In the season that followed, the Raiders’ last before moving to Las Vegas, Oakland finished with a 7-9 record, and in third place in the AFC West.

But with a move to a sparkling new stadium off the Vegas strip, there was still a potential for a bright future. And with two picks in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft, there were opportunities for the Raiders to add talent. Las Vegas ended up picking 12th in the first round — their own selection — and 20th, the pick received in the Mack trade.

The two selections? Wide receiver Henry Ruggs III and cornerback Damon Arnette.

Neither player is with the team, due to off-the-field issues.

At the time, the Ruggs selection seemed ideal for the Raiders, who needed help at receiver. The NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board ranked him tenth-overall, and as the third receiver, behind Jerry Jeudy and CeeDee Lamb.

Hasan’s big board put him in a similar light, with evaluators placing him as the 13th-best player in the draft, and forecasters viewing him as the 15th-best player.

Arnette, the cornerback from Ohio State, was something of a shocker. You have to scroll down pretty far to see his name on consensus big boards, as he checked in 63rd overall on Hasan’s board, and 54th on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus board.

The fact that both players are no longer with the organization due to off-field issues is important context, but the fact that neither player is on the roster represents two more first-round selections that are not contributing to the team this season. And yes, hindsight is 20/20, but if the Raiders wanted to reach for a cornerback at the end of the first round, they had other options, including Trevon Diggs, who came off the board in the second round.

The 2020 Raiders finished with an 8-8 record. Jacobs, to his credit, rushed for 1,065 yards and 12 touchdowns, in what to this day was his best NFL season. Ruggs caught 26 passes for 452 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Abram let the team with 86 total tackles, but Ferrell managed just a pair of sacks, and Arnette allowed an NFL Passer Rating of 129.2 when targeted that year.

Then there was the 2021 draft cycle, which would be the last for the pair of Gruden and Mayock. The Raiders had a few different “needs” entering the draft, but they seemed to focus on the defensive side of the football. Looking back at the mock drafts that were done for the Raiders that cycle, the most popular picks were at linebacker (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah or Micah Parsons), or defensive line (Christian Barmore).

The Raiders went in a different direction, adding offensive tackle Alex Leatherwood from Alabama.

At first blush, adding an offensive tackle from one of the best programs in the country does not seem like a reach, but there were certainly some concerns. Most draft profiles of Leatherwood prior to the draft viewed him as a solid player, but someone who needed work. Zierlein graded him as a second-round prospect, and raised questions over whether he was a guard or a tackle at the next level. The team at Pro Football Focus also viewed him as a scound round pick, stating that he “…doesn’t have quite the athleticism you’d want from a top-tier tackle, but he makes up for it with length and strength.” They also noted that he gave up 16 pressures in his final season at Alabama.

The consensus big board at NFL Mock Draft Database ranked Leatherwood 55th overall, and the eighth-best tackle in the class. Hasan’s consensus big board was slightly more optimistic on Leatherwood, but not as much. Evaluators ranked Leatherwood as the 43rd-best prospect in the class, and the second-ranked guard. Forecastors placed him in the 48th spot overall. Viewing him as an offensive tackle on Hasan’s board? Leatherwood checked in as the seventh-ranked tackle.

The Raiders picked him 17th overall, and the third offensive tackle. Las Vegas passed on Christian Darrisaw when they turned in the card with Leatherwood’s name on it.

They cut him last August after just one season, quickly moving on from him. As a rookie he was moved from tackle to guard, but fell behind Brandon Parker and Thayer Munford during this past training camp. Leatherwood signed with the Chicago Bears after being released, but has yet to appear in a game.

Neither Gruden nor Mayock would see another draft. Gruden resigned midway through the 2021 season, after numerous e-mails surfaced with Gruden casually using homophobic and misogynistic language. Mayock was let go at the end of the year. Despite the Raiders finally making the playoffs for the first time during this era, the organization was going in a different direction.

That new direction is yet to offer much hope for Raiders fans. Las Vegas is 2-6, thanks to last week’s surprising loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the future of new head coach Josh McDaniels is already in doubt. Watching this team, the lack of talent — and depth — is apparent, and some of the position groups that the Mayock and Gruden team tried to address over these past three draft cycles still need work.

And when the first five picks of an entire draft class are no longer with a team, as is the case with their 2020 class, it is hard to build a roster that way.

Now, Mayock and Gruden did hit on some picks during their time together. Back in 2019, while they missed on the three first rounders to varying degrees, they managed to add core players such as Maxx Crosby (fourth round) and Hunter Renfrow (fifth round).

But there were other misses, beyond the first round alone. Consider the third round of the 2020 NFL draft. Lynn Bowden Jr., a wide receiver drafted by the Raiders in the third round, now plays for the Miami Dolphins. The Raiders drafted a second wide receiver in the very same round, Bryan Edwards out of South Carolina, but he now plays for the Atlanta Falcons. Their third pick that round? Safety Tanner Muse out of Clemson, who now plays for the Seattle Seahawks.

Meaning their first five picks in the 2020 NFL draft are all no longer with the organization.

While the jury may still be out on the rest of the 2021 class, it is clear that the Gruden/Mayock era with the Raiders amounted to nothing more than missed opportunities. The team had six first-round picks at their disposal, and only two are still with the organization, but both have seen their fifth-year options declined by the Raiders. Yes, they added Crosby and Renfrow in later rounds back in 2019, but they missed badly the following year, even after the picks in the first round.

The Raiders made three shocking decisions back in 2018: Hiring Gruden, trading Mack and hiring Mayock.

They are paying for those decisions to this day.