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Is it possible to play the middle without being stuck in purgatory? The Vikings are about to find out.
On March 23, 2022, Minnesota Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah used the phrase “competitive rebuild,” to describe the current approach of the Vikings’ front office.
“I think when people look at teams they sometimes do it in a very binary way. And they ask, ‘Are you either all-in or tearing down and rebuilding?’ And I don’t really look at the world that way,” Adofo-Mensah said, via SI Vikings. “The way we look at it is we’re trying to navigate both worlds, we’re trying to live in today and tomorrow, or the competitive rebuild, however you want to phrase it or market it, and so I think that’s kind of how we’ve approached this offseason and our time horizons going forward.”
Fast forward one year later, and the Vikings roster looks almost completely different from earlier versions. Eric Kendricks? He’s now a Los Angeles Charger. Patrick Peterson? He’s donning the black and gold of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Longtime Vikings receiver Adam Thielen? Now a Carolina Panther. Dalvin Cook is also on his way out, with news releasing Thursday that Minnesota plans to cut the former Pro Bowl running back. EDGE Danielle Hunter could also be on his way out as well, with trade rumors swirling around his name.
Safety Harrison Smith and quarterback Kirk Cousins remain as the longest tenured members of the Vikings, remainders of the bygone Mike Zimmer era. Yet, the Vikings remain set on “competitively rebuilding” — wanting to win now, while also keeping one eye on the future. The extensive work they did in this year’s QB class in the NFL Draft solidifies that thought. It begs the question: can a team really competitively rebuild in a league that is so reliant on having good QB play?
Before we take a look, I want to make sure to mention that this idea of “competitive rebuild” is more looking at the front office direction, rather than the players on the field. Every player who steps on the field is looking to win games and be competitive.
The reason a competitive rebuild is so risky is because of how much value is put in having a good QB. If you don’t have one of the top guys, you either have to trade for one, or draft one with a high pick. The literal arms race for a top signal caller forces teams that are in the middle of the pack to make a decision with their team. You either have to go get one of the top guys (a la the New York Jets trading for Aaron Rodgers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers trading for Tom Brady, the Cleveland Browns trading for Deshaun Watson), or you go into rebuild mode and draft a QB with a top pick (Rams trading up for Jared Goff). There are very few teams who can pull off being competitive while also rebuilding and retooling their roster.
Teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who haven’t finished a season below .500 since 2003, the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots all come to mind. However, what those three teams all have is continuity within their front office and head coach position. The Steelers never make many changes in their front office or head coaching spot; they’ve had three coaches since 1969 and three GM’s since 1971. The Patriots, well, they’re the Patriots. Bill Belichick has been in the seat since 2000 and is also the GM. They’ve built in continuity through their front office, and the ownership has been patient enough to let these coaches keep them in the hunt for the playoffs while also looking towards the future.
The Vikings are currently sitting with a second-year GM and head coach who haven’t built the same kind of continuity as the Patriots or Steelers. The NFL is a fickle beast; if you don’t win enough in a certain amount of time you rarely get the chance to stay in your position, which makes this “competitive rebuild” so risky. The Vikings are playing a dangerous game, trying to live in two different worlds of rebuilding and winning now. Most times that can get you in purgatory, never good enough to win a title, but never bad enough to get a top QB.
By sticking with Kirk Cousins, the Vikings risk being stuck in the middle
Speaking of QB, let’s talk about Kirk Cousins. With this upcoming season being the last year of his contract (according to Spotrac, his contract can be voided at the end of the season), and no extension being signed at this point, all signs lead to Cousins not being on the team in 2024. This leaves Minnesota in a precarious position at QB. They either extend the 34-year old Cousins, keeping their window open to be just good enough, or they go into the season looking for a new QB. This is where the competitive rebuild in 2023 leaves them stuck. This year the Vikings probably won’t be bad enough to be in play for one of the top QBs in the NFL Draft; Cousins is still too competent for the Vikings to completely bottom out. However, Kirk Cousins also isn’t good enough for the Vikings to win a Super Bowl this year, leaving them in the dreaded QB purgatory, toiling among the the NFL’s island of middling teams until the wheels fall off or a new regime comes in.
It’s not guaranteed that a top passer will fall to the Vikings if they remain competitive. It places a lot of pressure on your front office to scout for guys that will be in that range, and on coaching staffs to develop those players. Not to say that development isn’t their job, but the margin for error could be widened a bit by bottoming out now and drafting a top player with a higher pick. It’s extremely rare for another Kirk Cousins to come along—of the non-rookie starting QBs this season (excluding the Buccaneers and 49ers, who haven’t announced a starter), only nine were selected after the first round. Even among those nine, you have guys like Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson, whose success is a major outlier for quarterbacks picked so late.
With that being said, it is worth considering that Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is from the McVay tree, who can seemingly take any NPC and put them in that offense and get results. While that is an option, how long do you want to toil in that cycle? The 49ers were there until they traded up to draft Trey Lance, because they wanted a blue chip quarterback prospect. The Patriots played that game for one year before drafting a QB in the first round. The Indianapolis Colts did that for YEARS post-Andrew Luck and they just drafted a QB in at No. 4 overall in Anthony Richardson. The Colts actually might be the best example of trying to competitively rebuild and it backfiring. They spent years putting band-aids over the QB position, hoping that it would work out. One year of Phillip Rivers got them to the wild card round, and that’s it. It might not be worth it to cycle through QBs like that, because you end up toiling in mediocrity.
With the Vikings tearing the remnants of the old republic down like relics of the Jedi Order, the phrase competitive rebuild will be used a lot. Fair warning, it could leave you stuck in mediocrity, sailing the Flying Dutchman of mediocrity until the end of time.
