Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The unknown with Trey Lance has become the problem, rather than a tantalizing solution.
The early career of Trey Lance has been closer to a nightmare than a fairytale from the very beginning. Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch traded three first round picks to move up in the 2021 NFL Draft because they viewed Lance as the guy who would elevate the 49ers past the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. He had to work out.
Well, this story has been more like a series of unfortunate events, marred by injuries and a lack of on-field production for a player who just hasn’t played football very much. Now the 49ers’ patience seems to be wearing thin as Lance currently sits behind Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold on the 49ers’ QB depth chart.
It’s not all Lance’s fault: broken ankles like the one that ended his season in Week 2 last year are freak injuries that don’t really happen often. Yet in his absence, Jimmy Garoppolo and Purdy made waves, helping take the Niners’ offense to an explosive and efficient high. The thought was that entering 2023, Lance would get the chance to start, and we would really see what the 49ers offense is capable of.
Well, that hasn’t happened. Lance has been up and down in the preseason, with brilliant moments and head-scratching ones often appearing within the same drive. Lance was the third QB off the bench in the 49ers win against the Denver Broncos, and it was, again, a tale of two QBs.
There are highs:
This is a nice throw and process by Lance for the TD. Yes, it’s WAO (shoutout @theqbschool) but the EZ angle really is what excites me. Post snap, Lance holds the single high safety over to the left, snaps back right and throws a strike. Good rep. pic.twitter.com/ChCEtiqidO
— JP Acosta (Pug Dederson Stan Acct) (@acosta32_jp) August 20, 2023
There were also lows:
Despite all of these reps, overall Lance looked better than he did in the previous week, but in that lies the problem.
The biggest issue for Trey Lance is that he needs reps, and I don’t think the 49ers are willing to give him those reps. Lance was considered a raw prospect coming out of college who needed time and experience to get used to NFL speed and figure out what he can and can’t do at the NFL level. I mean, he’s thrown fewer passes in his career than many QBs do in a single season.
Trey Lance needs playing time.
There’s no pathway for him to get it.
99 HS pass attempts.
318 College pass attempts.
72 NFL preseason attempts
102 NFL regular season attempts.
In his ENTIRE FOOTBALL CAREER, he has fewer pass attempts than Geno Smith had just last year.
NFL…
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) August 14, 2023
We knew this would be an issue, but the assumption was that going to the 49ers would let him sit behind Garoppolo and then rise to the occasion as the team’s next QB. Instead, while Lance was sitting on the bench, the 49ers built themselves into one of the most loaded rosters in the NFL, with the Super Bowl on their mind. They just need a QB who can get them there in one piece, which means that the QB just has to keep the wheel steady, not drive the car himself.
Lance won’t get the opportunities for growth, or the same ability to learn from mistakes, as a guy like Anthony Richardson with the Colts. While both need reps, one team knows that they won’t be competing right now, while the other was a QB away from the Super Bowl—again. That’s why Purdy will more than likely be named the starter, because you know what you’ll have with Purdy in that offense. The unknown with Lance has become the problem, rather than a tantalizing solution.
Now, what are the options here? There are still many avenues to go down with Lance in San Francisco. If it were me, I would start Trey Lance. Yes, the unknown can be a difficult proposition, but if you traded major draft capital for a QB just to not see him play with the playmakers and protection (which has been poor for Lance) that you invested heavily in, it feels like a mistake being made. Let Lance learn while taking reps, and as he learns he’ll elevate the offense with his athletic ability. Brock Purdy is a fine backup QB; he knows how to operate the offense and can do funky stuff sometimes to get out of a jam. However, the main reason that the 49ers haven’t won a Super Bowl yet is because they continue to run into QBs who elevate their offense, not QBs who you can win in spite of.
The other option is this, the one that I think is the most likely to happen: Purdy starts, and Lance is the backup this season. The 49ers are a Super Bowl team; one of the three best teams in the league just based on roster talent alone. The thought is that they need a steady hand at QB, not someone who you have to let learn as they play. Purdy will probably be able to give them that, and you have Lance as the primary backup, in case Purdy gets injured again.
The third event is one that I think should happen, if Lance in fact doesn’t get to start for the 49ers: Trey Lance gets traded and he gets reps there. It would be a monumental admission of failure for the Lynch/Shanahan regime, trading the QB you traded up to get, despite never truly seeing him in real, regular season action. Lance just has to get the chance to play the game, and let him grow into whatever QB he’s going to be. If it’s a team that needs a future QB, so be it. Let Lance go and play there and continue to move with Purdy and Darnold.
The Lance era in San Francisco has been rough, twists and turns taking away from what was believed to be an exciting proposition. However, it’s in the best interest for Lance to get reps now, whether it be for the Niners or some other team.