What to watch for at the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

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We’ve already seen a bunch of familiar faces in new (and old) places and it’s likely that the wheeling and dealing will continue right up to the 6 P.M. E.T. deadline.

Later today at 6 P.M. E.T., MLB’s Trade Deadline will come and go and while today might be the deadline, we’ve already seen plenty of fireworks. Entering Tuesday, 28 of the 30 teams in MLB had already done a deal with the two lone holdouts being the Oakland Athletics and the Minnesota Twins. With that being said, the odds are pretty high that both of those teams could get a deal done at some point Tuesday and it’s also likely that we’re going to see plenty of teams getting some last-minute deals done before the deadline passes.

When it comes to the notion of “buyers” and “sellers” at the deadline, things have evolved a bit when it comes to how teams go about business and that’s mostly due to the expanded Postseason giving more teams than ever a shot at contending. Jeff Passan of ESPN explained it in the post below:

Just because the Chicago Cubs are considering moving players from this current roster doesn’t mean they’re selling. Just as because they acquired Isaac Paredes doesn’t mean they’re buying. Modern baseball is a game about opportunity — the furthest thing from a binary. It is a fundamental tenet to understand how teams operate and what motivates them. There can be buyers and sellers, yes, but ultimately teams view themselves as value gatherers, and the only question is whether they’re gathering that value for today or down the road.

That’s why it’s very possible that the Cubs could still end up moving some of their current contributors to other teams despite having just improved the team by bringing in Issac Paredes. It’s also why we’re going to see a different variety of trade partners in addition to the usual practice of a contending team raiding a team that’s obviously looking forward to the future. We’ve already seen the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles do a trade with the NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies, so we’re in a very interesting time when it comes to finding partners to wheel-and-deal with.

It also explains why we saw the three-team deal that went down with the St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox.

Now, it would’ve been understandable to see one of either the Dodgers or Cardinals doing a deal to try to get some players from the White Sox. After all, the Dodgers are basically Postseason-bound, the Cardinals are in the midst of an intense fight for a Wild Card spot and the White Sox are impossibly moribund. It’s obvious who needs help now and who should be trying to rebuild for the future.

Instead, we get a three-team blockbuster where everybody got what they wanted. The White Sox attempted to boost their farm with this move, the Dodgers bolstered their bench and bullpen and the Cardinals filled two areas of need and got some feel-good vibes by bringing Tommy Pham back. Everybody got what they wanted and once again, it really wouldn’t be surprising to see each of these three teams continue to stay busy here on the actual Deadline Day.

The White Sox in particular are likely to continue to make moves and a complete teardown appears to be the only real way forward for Chicago. They’ve somehow only managed to win 27 games so far this season and are currently on a franchise-record 15-game losing streak — which broke the record that they set earlier this season at 14 games. As I mentioned earlier this season, it’s impossibly bleak for the White Sox right now and there’s a decent chance that if they move guys like Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet and Paul DeJong that things could get even worse. Things are going to get worse before they get better for the White Sox and I can understand if hardcore Pale Hose fans decide to check out of this season (if they haven’t already) after watching their team get their trade deadline business done.

Speaking of teams who aren’t done doing work, it’s also likely that the New York Yankees won’t be done dealing after they managed to pry away second baseman-turned-center fielder-turned-third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Miami Marlins. In fact, the Yankees might be a prime example of a team that might be selling in order to buy. Despite the fact that he wants to stay and is still a rotation regular for New York, Nestor Cortes is on the market and could be playing for another team by the end of the day. At the same time, the Yankees are reportedly in on trying to pick up another starter in addition to continuing to boost their lineup and their bullpen. New York will certainly be a team to keep an eye on as the business gets done today.

One team that’s always very interesting to watch at the deadline is the Tampa Bay Rays. While we might be a little bit removed from the “Don’t trade with the Rays” era, this is still an organization that knows what they’re doing when it comes to navigating the trade market. They already managed to pry away a couple of to prospects from their divisional rivals in Baltimore in exchange for Zach Eflin and also brought in a decent haul from the Mariners in exchange for Randy Arozarena. Those deals made sense for the buyers but it also made sense for the Rays to keep on adding to their farm system when you consider what their M.O. has been as an organization for the longest time now.

The Rays are also an example of teams using the deadline to decide which direction they’re going in — even if they’re still technically in the Postseason race. While the Rays are only 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, their Playoff Odds according to FanGraphs are at just 13 percent. Now, this hasn’t stopped teams from deciding to go for it in the past (as evidenced by the fact that the 2021 World Series Champion Atlanta Braves had just a 17 percent shot of getting into the Postseason on July 31 — the day after that season’s trade deadline.) but it’s also a good reason for teams to decide to sell. That’s why it wouldn’t be particularly shocking if we saw the Rays keep on dealing away guys like Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz before the deadline comes and goes.

Finally, we could also keep on seeing reunions happening across MLB. One of the deals that the Rays made was sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers. That’s now two years in a row where Amed Rosario has been sent to Chavez Ravine near the deadline. Meanwhile, the Braves acquired 2021 World Series Champion Jorge Soler and also brought in one of their relievers from that 2021 run in the form of Luke Jackson. This is after Atlanta brought in Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario earlier on this season and this is also after the aforementioned return of Tommy Pham to St. Louis and James Paxton’s return to the Boston Red Sox from the Dodgers. Reunions appear to be en vogue right now and who knows? We could even see something like the San Diego Padres deciding to find a way to reunite with Blake Snell.

While nearly every team has already been busy at the deadline, it’s hard to imagine that things are going to stay quiet heading into this afternoon and evening. The Postseason picture is still a bit muddled (especially in both Wild Card races) but it’s already becoming clearer with each deal that’s been made and each playoff race could suddenly become much easier to predict once the deadline passes and the trade business is done. It’s already been an exciting period of deals (assuming you aren’t a Twins or an A’s fan) and it would be shocking if that excitement didn’t carry on right up until 6 P.M. E.T. this evening.