Where does every 2021 NFL Draft QB rank on the Panic Meter?

It’s important to use context around these guys when deciding on the future of your franchise

So, let’s talk about the 2021 QB class.

(/pulls up chair)

Two years into what was a ballyhooed QB draft class, the results have been … less than ideal. Since 2021, none of the QBs are in the top 20 in expected points added per play (EPA/play), and the overall team success hasn’t come yet. Sunday might have been the worst performance of the majority of the class, with four of the top six QBs losing and putting up poor stats (outside of Justin Fields—we’ll get to him later). Even the QB who won, New England Patriots QB Mac Jones, didn’t overly impress.

This class that was supposed to be filled with bonafide starters and potential stars at the position has just seemingly not worked out through two years. The panic button is starting to be pressed by fans of franchises with these young guys and doom and gloom is heavy.

However, let’s examine the situations these QBs are in on a larger scale to figure out whether the panic button needs to be pressed, specifically with one word: margins. No, not the margins on a paper or a Google doc, but the margins between a good play and a bad play. In football, the margins get smaller and smaller as you reach higher levels of the sport, due to talent. For a young QB still figuring out what does and doesn’t work at this level, the margins can be widened by both scheme and talent. ESPN’s Jordan Reid calls it the three P’s for a young QB: playcalling, playmakers, and protection. These will all help widen the margins just a bit so you can actually get a good look at who this QB is and where they’re at, before making a decision.

For example: the Eagles and the Dolphins are truly figuring out that they have long-term solutions at QB by bringing in top tier receivers who widen the margin for error. Another example of this is Joe Burrow, who got a true ball winner in Ja’Marr Chase and took off, widening his margins.

Knowing that, let’s dig into these young QBs and decide if the panic button should be pressed.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

The first overall pick and the first QB to take a loss on Sunday was Lawrence, who has seen everything but success in the NFL. After being under Urban Meyer for a year, new head coach Doug Pederson gave Lawrence a little bit of structure and organization, and through the first few games, we saw that. The Jaguars crushed the Colts and the Chargers by a combined score of 55-10 and many (myself included) got excited about not only the future of this team, but the present.

Not so fast, my friend.

The Jaguars are currently on a five-game losing streak where Lawrence has played poorly in a few of those games, the Broncos game being among one of the worst games.

However, in the grand scheme of things, Lawrence has improved this year. His completion percentage is up, sack percentage is down and his Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) is among the top half of all the starters in the league.

However, where Lawrence has struggled, and where the Jaguars have struggled as a whole, is explosive plays downfield. Through the first eight games of the season, Lawrence is 18-46 on all passes at least 15 air yards downfield and his total EPA is among the worst in the NFL. The Jaguars offense can’t generate explosive passes downfield, and it’s constricting the offense as a whole. This is a grid from Next Gen Stats, and as you can see, the Jaguars hit an invisible barrier past 20 yards.

This puts an incredible amount of stress on the QB to absolutely be perfect in the intermediate middle of the field, where the most defenders are. One of the knocks on Lawrence right now is inconsistent accuracy, especially downfield. This was evident on the first drive of the game, when the Jaguars ran a “sail” concept, with Zay Jones running a go and Evan Engram running a deep corner route. The timing is there, the decision is there. Just gotta hit the throw.

Good decision, bad execution seems to be the theme for the Jaguars right now. During their two game win streak, Pederson nailed every playcall, pushed every button the right way, and was able to scheme players open. That increases the margins for a QB like Lawrence.

However, this losing streak has shown that even if the right play is called, the players have to execute, which is where they’re lacking, especially in the receiver room. The Jaguars are 15th in the NFL in Yards per Route Run per Sports Info Solutions, and while the Jaguars have three receivers that are over the NFL average of 2.92 yards of separation, nobody can get open downfield. This combined with a QB who isn’t necessarily going to wow you like a Patrick Mahomes with 60 yard bombs creates an offense that has to win in the intermediate areas with little to no separation.

This, in turn, shrinks the margin for error, and for the Jaguars that means Lawrence has to be perfect on every single throw or the result is catastrophic.

Panic Level: 4/10

So here’s the thing with this Jaguars team: I got carried away. After the two wins over the Colts and Chargers the expectations shifted majorly, and I think that’s how the discussions around Lawrence have been seen.

However, the Jaguars and their fans shouldn’t be extremely panicked about their second year QB. The most important thing right now is nailing down the process, snap in and snap out. Right now, Lawrence’s process is fine. There aren’t many throws where you question why he threw it. Even the interception against the Broncos in the red zone can be seen as the correct decision.

You can see the gap where Marvin Jones has the chance to make a play, Lawrence just doesn’t get enough air on it.

The only truly concerning thing is the accuracy downfield, but the hope is another receiver who can extend the field and create separation will widen the margins for the Jaguars offense.

Zach Wilson, QB, Jets

Oh man, let’s get into the Jets second year signal caller.

New York lost to the New England Patriots 22-16 and Zach Wilson threw three interceptions in the loss. Even with two completions over 40 yards, Wilson finished with a -0.057 EPA/play.

Even more alarming than that are his numbers under pressure compared to his numbers when kept clean. It’s almost like he’s two different QBs:

Remember how I said that margins can shrink and also be widened? Yeah Zach Wilson is shrinking the margins due to his own play. He isn’t helping himself both inside and outside the pocket.

This is an incompletion, but watch where Wilson stops his initial drop versus where he is when he releases the ball. He stops his drop around the Patriots 40 yard line and throws it from midfield. He’s developing alarming traits under pressure that don’t make playing QB successful at this level.

On his first interception, he tries to flick a throw off balance in the pocket due to a pressure, and misses wildly. It’s not to the point where Sam Darnold was with seeing ghosts, but it is starting to get very spooky for Zach Wilson this year. If he just stands in the pocket and throws this pass normally, they get the first down.

The main reason why he does this might also be the main reason why he’s struggling: he refuses to let a play die. He’s trying to keep a play alive for so long, extending plays until the last second, which is ultimately where he gets himself in trouble. If he would just throw the ball away and live to fight another down, that could save a lot of his problems.

Panic Level: 8/10

The only reason this isn’t full panic mode is adjusting for the lack of Breece Hall in the backfield and Alijah Vera-Tucker on the offensive line. Zach Wilson is playing like one of the worst QBs in the league right now, and the process is alarming. He completely shuts down under pressure and tries to be a hero far too much for a team where he doesn’t have to be.

A receiving corps of Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and either Denzel Mims or Elijah Moore (whichever one doesn’t get traded first) and a defense that’s finally hitting it’s stride needs better play at the QB position, and Wilson has not been good enough since his return.

You would hope that the play under pressure would improve, but this might just be who he is. Last year his EPA under pressure was -0.91 per attempt, and a place where he should’ve improved isn’t seeing any improvement. I would be very worried right now if I were a Jets fan.

Trey Lance, QB, 49ers

Check back in 2023.

Justin Fields, QB, Bears

If this were written immediately after the Bears lost to the Commanders on Thursday night the panic level would be through the roof. However, I think offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and the Bears offensive braintrust have found an offense that works while freeing Justin Fields to use his legs as a weapon in both the run and passing game.

Since the Week 6 loss to the Commanders, Fields has run the ball on designed runs or options at the third highest clip in the NFL. The Bears are allowing Fields to use his legs as a weapon, whether it be on designed touches like this pin-pull TD they scored against Dallas, or scrambles when he just makes things happen.

Fields’ ability to create with his legs is truly only rivaled by Lamar Jackson as the best in the league. A reminder: he ran a 4.4 40 yard dash at 230 pounds. That is not normal.

As a passer, there’s still work to be done, but enjoy Fields being more decisive with the ball when he drops back to pass. The Bears ran more RPO’s and play-action passes with deeper pockets, which really flashed Fields’ arm talent. This was an incompletion, but I like the pace that Fields throws this with. He knew the coverage and where he could attack, and went for the kill shot.

Fields’ decisiveness in the passing game is such a major jump from where he was to start the season. The Bears are finally getting the most out of him.

Panic Level: 6/10

A lot of this panic is very contingent on what the Bears do with the treasure trove of picks and cap space they have entering the offseason. They have over $100 million in cap space, and after trading Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, have double digit picks in the 2023 NFL Draft.

When we discuss margins for a QB, recent playcalling has widened the margins for Fields, but they still need playmakers on the outside, a true go to receiver. In addition, the offensive line needs work. Although RG Teven Jenkins is quite possibly good, they still need help on the edges of the offensive line. In theory, the Bears would see the needs they have, combined with the amount of capital they have, and address these needs in a big way.

Of course, it’s all in theory.

Mac Jones, QB, New England Patriots

It’s been a rough few weeks for Mac Jones. The signal caller came into the season having played the best among the rookie QBs, yet has seemingly taken a step backwards this year. The most staggering number has been his play under pressure, which has plummeted. In 2021, his total EPA under pressure was eighth in the NFL, only three points behind Tom Brady. This year he’s 20th and right by fellow QB class member Zach Wilson.

While Wilson seems to bring the pressure onto himself by bailing clean pockets and going backwards, it’s almost like Mac Jones refuses to move. Whether it’s due to an ankle injury he suffered a few weeks ago or just distrust in what he’s seeing, Jones is just not responding to pressure well.

This interception is a good example. Jones doesn’t feel the pressure in time, and the batted ball leads to a pick.

Again, let’s talk about process vs. results here. I think for the most part Jones’ process has been okay, with middling results. However, plays like this can’t happen in gotta have it situations. Hunter Henry is open on the slide route, and Jones just doesn’t throw it. This is either a lack of trust in himself or the talent around him, staggering to see compared to last year.

Panic Level: 6/10

Let’s start off with this: Bailey Zappe should not be the Patriots starting QB of the future. Despite looking like Mac Jones, I think Jones is a better processor. Where I think the margins have shrunk for Jones this year is in the playcalling. Mac Jones has to be perfect on every throw not only because the scheme asks him to, but because his athletic limitations force him to. His arm isn’t the strongest, he’s not the most overwhelming athlete, so he wins with timing and accuracy.

The Patriots call two different offenses with Zappe and Jones. Zappe gets considerably more play action; he has almost double the play action snaps as Jones does on the year, and the amount of max protection he gets is vastly different. The Patriots should be helping Jones out more with play action, yet don’t seem to be.

Jones should still be the starter, and I think he can be a quality starter in the NFL, but the alarm bells are starting to ring.

Davis Mills, QB, Texans

Davis Mills is an interesting case study. The second year QB for the Texans was thrown into a horrific situation in 2021, but played well enough to earn a starting nod this year.

In 2022, it’s been much of the same from Mills, which is to say, he’s flashed some but is far too inconsistent. Against the Texans, Mills went 17-29 with a TD and a pick, but going up against the Titans’ defense is a tall task for any QB.

Mills has some talent when his feet are set and he gets all of his cleats in the ground to throw, but the drop off when his feet aren’t set to when his feet are and he can see the picture is stark.

This is a great example of what it means. The Texans run a scissor route with TEs Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard. Mills is on time, but he feet are too out of wack as he’s trying to move, and it makes the throw sail.

When Mills has his cleats in the ground however, he does have some arm talent. This is a great throw with pressure in his face; you can see both cleats are in the ground and he’s not panicking. This is the kind of stuff he can do if he can just not panic under pressure and quiet his feet down.

Panic Level: 7/10

The Texans will more than likely be picking in the top ten again in the upcoming NFL Draft, and I think they’ll strongly consider taking a QB. However, I do wonder if the Texans have enough talent in the playmaking department to suffice for a young QB. Brandin Cooks is perenially on the trade block and the roster thins out as you go further down the depth chart. If we’re using the margins example again, the margins for the Texans are razor thin, but I do think Mills is sometimes a part of that thin margin.

Right now, the Texans currently have the second and ninth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They’ll be in prime position to draft a QB such as CJ Stroud or Bryce Young if they truly wanted to, but the jury is still out on Will Levis. Levis has the physical talent that surpasses Mills, but could need time to season before being ready. I would lean on the Texans picking a QB in the upcoming draft if they have the chance, and again stockpiling more talent on the roster.

On the flip side, the argument can be made that they could punt on this QB class and wait until next year. The Texans are still very early in the rebuilding process, and Mills has played no better or worse than he did last year with marginal talent improvements, so continuing to stack talent and see what Mills can do in 2023 with an eye on the next QB crop could be something that interests the Texans.

Mills is in a weird spot. He’s merely a fine QB who probably projects as a marginal starter, but with how bad the Texans are outside of him, the Texans could talk themselves into stockpiling more talent around him and seeing what happens. However, if they have a top 3 pick in the NFL Draft, they should strongly consider a QB.