Which current NFL starters could break their team’s franchise passing record?

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

From the locks, to the lol no’s.

The amount of quarterback talent in the NFL right now is obscene. Not only are we in a golden age of young QBs, but pass-friendly rules and a 17-game regular season has pushed air yards through the roof.

This depth of young talent could very easily have a profound effect on franchise records. Today we look at all 32 teams, their current all-time leader in yardage, and whether we can expect that record to topple with the team’s current starter.

Arizona Cardinals

Record holder: Jim Hart (34,639 yds)
Current QB: Kyler Murray (13,848 yds)

Kyler Murray is well on his way statistically, but the biggest hurdle here is Arizona’s lack of organizational consistency. Murray was drafted to be a very specific QB, in a very specific offense — and it remains to be seen what his long-term future with the Cardinals will be, regardless of the contract extension he signed last season.

Chance to break record: 40 percent

Atlanta Falcons

Record holder: Matt Ryan (59,735 yds)
Current QB: Desmond Ridder (708 yds)

Matt Ryan is a borderline Hall of Fame player who excelled for over a decade as the starter in Atlanta. We don’t need to drag this one out, because Desmond Ridder isn’t that guy.

Chance to break record: 0 percent

Baltimore Ravens

Record holder: Joe Flacco (38,245 yds)
Current QB: Lamar Jackson (12,209 yds)

This is a really curious one. Every fiber of my being believes that Jackson is the vastly superior QB, but his game doesn’t lend itself to racking up 5,000 yard passing seasons. Right now he would need 13 total seasons at his current pace to break Flacco’s total. That’s a long time in one place for a dual-threat QB. We have to be conservative with this one.

Chance to break record: 55 percent

Buffalo Bills

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Record holder: Jim Kelly (35,467 yds)
Current QB: Josh Allen (18,397 yds)

This is one that’s indicative of era, not greatness. Both quarterbacks are brilliant in their own right, but Kelly was never a high-volume passer and didn’t play in a passing era. Outside of a catastrophic injury there is no doubt Allen will break the franchise passing record — and could achieve it in the next 4-5 years.

Chance to break record: 95 percent

Carolina Panthers

Record holder: Cam Newton (29,725 yds)
Current QB: Bryce Young (0 yds)

The great unknown. Newton’s relatively brief career lends his record to be broken by a passer, but it’s absolutely impossible to project Bryce Young’s future in the NFL before taking a snap. Any chance is based on faith, so let’s put a number on it.

Chance to break record: 45 percent

Chicago Bears

Record holder: Jay Cutler (23,443 yds)
Current QB: Justin Fields (4,112 yds)

The Bears’ history with passers is so sad that Fields is already 20th in franchise history in passing and the team has been around for 103 years. That’s to say: He should be able to break this record if his career continues its trajectory. I’m bullish on Fields’ future, and my odds reflect that.

Chance to break record: 65 percent

Cincinnati Bengals

Record holder: Ken Anderson (32,838 yds)
Current QB: Joe Burrow (11,774 yds)

Similar to Buffalo, we can lock this one down quickly. It would take something horrific to stop Burrow from destroying this franchise record — especially considering the weapons at his disposal. He’s already over a third of the way there in three seasons.

Chance to break record: 97 percent

Cleveland Browns

Record holder: Brian Sipe (23,713 yds)
Current QB: Deshaun Watson (1,102 yds)

This is an easy record to attain and Watson’s massive guaranteed contract means he should be able to break this by the time his run is over in Cleveland.

Chance to break record: 75 percent

Dallas Cowboys

Record holder: Tony Romo (34,183 yds)
Current QB: Dak Prescott (24,943 yds)

Prescott is on pace to break this record in three seasons, and could achieve it in two. That should make this a lock, but as mercurial as the Cowboys tend to be (and their seemingly-endless back-and-forth on Prescott) means this feels like slightly less of a lock than Allen or Burrow.

Chance to break record: 90 percent

Denver Broncos

Photo by Lutz Bongarts/Bongarts/Getty Images

Record holder: John Elway (51,475 yds)
Current QB: Russell Wilson (3,524 yds)

This is about age. It’s simply not going to happen.

Chance to break record: 0 percent

Detroit Lions

Record holder: Matthew Stafford (45,109 yds)
Current QB: Jared Goff (7,683 yds)

I like Goff’s fit in Detroit a lot, but I cannot fathom him really staying long enough to challenge Stafford’s lock on the record. There’s a very small outside chance, but it feels incredibly slim.

Chance to break record: 5 percent

Green Bay Packers

Record holder: Brett Favre (61,655 yds)
Current QB: Jordan Love (606 yds)

No. Just no.

Chance to break record: 0 percent

Houston Texans

Record holder: Matt Schaub (23,221 yds)
Current QB: CJ Stroud (0 yds)

This is a very similar situation to the Panthers, except Stroud is less of a lock than Young at the position. However, the bar is so low they end up at the same place.

Chance to break record: 45 percent

Indianapolis Colts

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Record holder: Peyton Manning (54,828 yds)
Current QB: Anthony Richardson (0 yds)

I absolutely love Anthony Richardson, but this is Peyton Manning’s record we’re talking about. It would require Richardson to be a MAMMOTH hit, have sustained success as a dual-threat QB, and become one of the greatest players in franchise history. That’s a lot for an unknown player.

Chance to break record: 10 percent

Jacksonville Jaguars

Record holder: Mark Brunell (25,698 yds)
Current QB: Trevor Lawrence (7,754 yds)

This feels like a record destined to be broken. Lawrence is coming into his own as the Jags’ quarterback and the bar is pretty low to become the franchise’s all-time leading passer. When the dust settles I think he’ll eclipse this fairly easily.

Chance to break record: 90 percent

Kansas City Chiefs

Record holder: Len Dawson (28,507 yds)
Current QB: Patrick Mahomes (24,241 yds)

It’s Patrick Mahomes. He’ll probably do it this year.

Chance to break record: 100 percent

Las Vegas Raiders

Record holder: Derek Carr (35,222 yds)
Current QB: Jimmy Garoppolo (0 yds)

Jimmy G isn’t a volume passer and he’s 31-years-old. Could it happen? Sure. Will it? Probably not.

Chance to break record: 5 percent

Los Angeles Chargers

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Record holder: Philip Rivers (59,274 yds)
Current QB: Justin Herbert (14,089 yds)

Easily one of the most difficult ones to project in the NFL. Herbert has enormous potential, but Rivers was a master in staying power. I’m confident that Herbert will stay and break the record, but it’s not a lock by any means.

Chance to break record: 60 percent

Los Angeles Rams

Record holder: Jim Everett (23,758 yds)
Current QB: Matthew Stafford (6,973 yds)

There’s a chance here, but it would require Stafford playing into his 40s. I don’t see that happening the way things are going. Ultimately I think the Rams look for a QB in the next 2-3 years and move on.

Chance to break record: 35 percent

Miami Dolphins

Record holder: Dan Marino (61,361 yds)
Current QB: Tua Tagovailoa (8,015 yds)

There is a potential path here, but injury history makes this difficult to imagine unless you’re a member of TuAnon.

Chance to break record: 20 percent

Minnesota Vikings

Record holder: Fran Tarkenton (33,098 yds)
Current QB: Kirk Cousins (20,934 yds)

Cousins needs 4-5 seasons to break the record. Right now he’s basically a year-to-year quarterback in the tail-end of his career. However, the Vikings have no solid answers at QB for the future — and potentially being locked in QB purgatory gives this a chance of happening.

Chance to break record: 40 percent

New England Patriots

Record holder: Tom Brady (74,571 yds)
Current QB: Mac Jones (6,798 yds)

lol no

Chance to break record: -100 percent

New Orleans Saints

Record holder: Drew Brees (68,010 yds)
Current QB: Derek Carr (0 yds)

[see Patriots]

Chance to break record: -100 percent

New York Giants

Record holder: Eli Manning (57,023 yds)
Current QB: Daniel Jones (11,603 yds)

This is an odd one. I don’t think Daniel Jones will ever be the guy to take the Giants to a Super Bowl, but this is a team with a propensity to be comfortable with mediocre QB play. I can’t give this a decent chance of happening though.

Chance to break record: 20 percent

New York Jets

Photo by Sporting News via Getty Images/Sporting News via Getty Images via Getty Images

Record holder: Joe Namath (27,057 yds)
Current QB: Aaron Rodgers (0 yds)

Do you really expect Rodgers to play until he’s 50?

Chance to break record: 0 percent

Philadelphia Eagles

Record holder: Donovan McNabb (32,873 yds)
Current QB: Jalen Hurts (7,906 yds)

It’s a touch too early to say this is an absolute lock, but it’s very attainable. Hurts’ future is bright enough to easily become the best QB in the history of the Eagles.

Chance to break record: 80 percent

Pittsburgh Steelers

Record holder: Ben Roethlisberger (64,088 yds)
Current QB: Kenny Pickett (2,404 yds)

Sorry, Pickett ain’t it.

Chance to break record: 0 percent

San Francisco 49ers

Record holder: Joe Montana (35,124 yds)
Current QB: Brock Purdy (1,374 yds)

Purdy showed incredible promise last season, but that only puts him slightly above the rookie QBs from this year in my estimation. He’s coming back from an injury, and we don’t know long-term whether he can keep his performance up. Don’t forget: Mac Jones was brilliant for one season too.

Chance to break record: 45 percent

Seattle Seahawks

Record holder: Russell Wilson (37,059 yds)
Current QB: Geno Smith (5,017 yds)

Age is the issue here. It’s very difficult to see Smith starting for another six seasons in Seattle and maintaining the same level of success.

Chance to break record: 5 percent

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record holder: Jameis Winston (19,737 yds)
Current QB: Baker Mayfield (0 yds)

Ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah hahahahahahahahaha [breathes] ahahahahahahaha

Chance to break record: 0 percent

Tennessee Titans

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Record holder: Warren Moon (33,685 yds)
Current QB: Ryan Tannehill (12,831 yds)

Tannehill is on his way out. Not going to happen.

Chance to break record: 0 percent

Washington Commanders

Record holder: Joe Theismann (25,206 yds)
Current QB: Sam Howell (169 yds)

It’s a low bar, and really low potential. Is there a chance Sam Howell could be that guy? Maybe. Do I think he’s that guy? No.

Chance to break record: 5 percent