Why Chiefs vs. Texans can be the most intriguing game of the NFL Divisional Playoffs

Houston’s defense will try and put Mahomes in a blender.

I’m actually quite intrigued by this matchup between the Chiefs and Texans, largely because I think the Texans’ defense is playing some of the best football in the NFL right now. What they did to the Chargers on Wild Card weekend might violate the Geneva Convention. They pressured Justin Herbert on more than half of his dropbacks, forced four interceptions and allowed a -0.58 EPA per play, the fourth-lowest in the playoffs since 2016 (per Next Gen Stats). This game felt like the full manifestation of what head coach Demeco Ryans has wanted in his defense since coming from San Francisco. While the Texans don’t send pressure very often (15th in blitz rate per Pro Football Reference), but when they do, they’re BRINGING IT. They’re seventh in Sack Rate and first in “Holy Shit” moments when they tee off on opponents, and they do it from fronts that try to isolate their opponent’s weakest link.

A lot of times, when the Texans are trying to tee off on their opponents, they line up in these overloaded fronts. This means that Houston will put three defensive linemen on one side of the line, and then one of their star EDGEs Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson Jr. on the other side by themselves. Then, they’ll walk up a linebacker, most of the time Azeez Al-Shaiir to the side where Anderson Jr. or Hunter’s lone side. It’ll look like this:

From here, the Texans want to get the opposing offensive line to 5-0 their protection. When the offensive line sees five immediate threats and they go man-to-man protection. When Houston gets teams to isolate their protections, they hammer them with picks and stunts, various loops that work like pick and rolls in basketball. With two outstanding EDGEs on the outside, they can really force the offensive line’s hand by making sure the tackles are occupied, then play games with the other linemen. What I love about this pass rush game is instead of straight rushing Al-Shaiir through the A-gap, they have him stunt with Hunter, to ensure that nobody from the backside of this overloaded front can interfere with Anderson Jr flying in off a stunt. Anderson Jr. hits Justin Herbert’s arm and a chaotic play results in a win.

Now, the Texans go up against a team that has simply eviscerated defenses that are run similarly to theirs. In their last matchup, Houston pressured QB Patrick Mahomes on 12 of his 45 dropbacks, per Sports Information Solutions. On those 12 dropbacks when pressured, the Chiefs went 7-10 for 60 yards and also had a 0.28 EPA per play. The Texans’ 26.7% pressure rate was 13th for them on the season, but what stood out the most going back and watching that game was how often the Chiefs had answers any time the Texans showed pressure.

Houston loves to be in Cover 1 when they show these pressure looks, and for good reason: CBs Derek Stingley Jr and Kamari Lassiter are phenomenal. Per SIS, Houston plays the fourth most snaps of Cover 1 when sending five or more blitzers in the NFL, and when you specifically filter it to third down, they jump to second. Knowing this about the Texans, Kansas City unleashed a whole slew of answers against man coverage. This version of the Chiefs are a West Coast offense enthusiasts’ dream: they hammer opponents with speed now with WR Hollywood Brown back, but they do it horizontally, opening lanes for Travis Kelce to sit in the voids. Mahomes still shreds man coverage, but now they pry open lanes with stacks and natural picks to gain leverage. On this rep against the Texans, Kansas City motions Kelce to get a man or zone tell, and when he sees the defender follow him, the Chiefs know it’s man. They have a designed stack with WR Deandre Hopkins and Xavier Worthy, but Worthy fakes going in and sprints right back to the outside. Easy leverage play that gets them 15 yards.

I wonder if Houston tries to throw more zone in these situations to throw Kansas City off the second time around, which is also a risk because Patrick Mahomes is very good vs. zone. However, the game is going to be won or lost based on if this Houston pass rush can affect Mahomes, and make his life difficult.

Washington Commanders-Detroit Lions

This game is all about how the Lions defend another scrambling QB in Jayden Daniels. To keep it quite simple, Jayden Daniels IS the engine that keeps the Commanders’ offense going. Whether it be his steadily growing golf clubs he has as a passer or the force he is as a runner, the Commanders’ offense lives and dies on his ability. There are two aspects of this matchup that I’m specifically watching: the Daniels’ scrambles and the targets over the middle of the field. Against man coverage, Daniels has a 12.1% scramble rate and a 0.13 EPA per play. He’s such a dynamic force as a runner when he can punish man coverage, and the Commanders have built this offense to let Daniels turn it loose as a runner whenever he sees a lane. The Lions actually aren’t that bad against scrambles! 19th in the league in EPA per play on scrambles and 20th in Positive Play Rate. However, they also lead the remaining teams left in the playoffs in Cover 1 rate, and in Cover 1 you leave a bit of gaps for runners such as Daniels.

Yet, I think I worry more about the Lions’ pass defense in Cover 1 against this team, especially the linebackers. The numbers haven’t been there for Daniels this season against Cover 1 (19th in total EPA), but against Tampa he showed more of an ability to poke holes in the middle of the field. He was firing passes against Cover 1 targeting over routes against Tampa Bay’s overmatched corners, hammering a lot of WR Terry McLaurin like this over route. Love how McLaurin works this route to the inside, kind of stair-stepping this route to create more separation.

For Detroit, there are three players that I’m circling: LBs Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, and CB Amik Robertson. Anzalone came back in their emphatic week 18 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, and he provided another steady hand in the middle of that defense, especially in pass coverage. He drew the task of defending TE TJ Hockenson, and his physicality really frustrated the Vikings’ TE. I think that’s going to be the play against Zach Ertz, who Daniels really trusts in the passing game.