WNBA Explained: History says winning the draft lottery is a really, really big deal

Securing the No. 1 pick has historically benefitted WNBA franchise much more than their NBA counterparts.

This column is the first installment of SB Nation’s new “WNBA Explained” series, a new weekly column diving deep into different topics related to women’s basketball.

When an NBA team wins the Draft Lottery, it’s undoubtedly good news — but historically, it’s not that likely the player they select will ultimately lead them to a championship.

But, in the WNBA, the No. 1 pick is very likely to become a team’s franchise player. And, it’s statistically more likely than not they’ll ultimately bring home a championship to the city they were drafted, as crazy as that might sound.

So, when the Dallas Wings won the WNBA Draft Lottery last Sunday, the ramifications were immediately enormous.

The Wings, fresh off a disappointing 9-31 regular season campaign, are widely expected to select UConn guard Paige Bueckers, assuming that the phenom forgoes a potential sixth year of college eligibility and enters the draft.

Now, Paige going to Dallas is not quite a surefire thing. Howard Megdal of The Next reported that some sources around the league believe Bueckers could force her way to the Los Angeles Sparks, and that she has the tools to do so. It’s also possible that the strong play of another star, such as USC’s Kiki Iriafen, could force the Wings to reconsider their planned top selection. That outcome is somewhat unlikely, however, considering the Clark-like business boom Bueckers has the potential to bring given her stardom)

If Bueckers is indeed the No. 1 pick, as currently projected, she’ll become the sixth top pick to be drafted out of the University of Connecticut, joining Breanna Stewart (2016), Maya Moore (2011), Tina Charles (2010), Diana Taurasi (2004) and Sue Bird (2002). Calling that group “elite company” would be an understatement — the five Huskies have combined for 14 WNBA championships, 6 MVPs, and 44 All-Star selections (and counting).

Bueckers, regardless of what happens next, is following in the footsteps of all-time greats.

What a No. 1 pick can do for a franchise on the court

In the NBA, No. 1 overall picks not turning into stars is a relatively frequent occurrence. There was Michael Olowakandi in 1998, Kwame Brown in 2001, Greg Oden in 2007, Anthony Bennett in 2013, Ben Simmons in 2016, Markelle Fultz in 2017, and DeAndre Ayton in 2018 — the list goes on and on.

In fact, since 1997 (the year the WNBA was founded), the only No. 1 picks who won NBA championships with the franchises they were drafted to were Tim Duncan, LeBron James, and Kyrie Irving. (Save for the 2016 Cavaliers championship, it would have only been Duncan. And, LeBron had to leave Cleveland and return before securing highly coveted ring).

But in the WNBA, top picks are almost always franchise-changers. There are a few exceptions, sure, but in the last 20 years, the only No. 1 pick who didn’t ultimately become a franchise cornerstone was Charli Collier, who, coincidentally, was drafted by the Wings with the top pick in 2021. (Collier is no longer in the WNBA and plays professional basketball in Australia).

So while the Wings know better than anyone that success is not guaranteed, history shows it is more likely than not. For proof, here’s a full list of which players have been drafted No. 1 since the league’s inception in 1997 — and how many championships they brought to the franchise that drafted them.

1997: Tina Thompson (Southern California) selected by the Houston Comets
Won 4 championships with the Comets

1998: Margo Dydek (Poland) selected by the Utah Starzz

1999: Chamique Holdsclaw (Tennessee) selected by the Washington Mystics

2000: Ann Wauters (France) selected by the Cleveland Rockers

2001: Lauren Jackson (Australia) selected by the Seattle Storm
Won 2 championships with Storm

2002: Sue Bird (UConn) selected by the Seattle Storm
Won 4 championships with Storm

2003: LaToya Thomas (Mississippi State) selected by the Cleveland Rockers

2004: Diana Taurasi (UConn) selected by the Phoenix Mercury
Won 3 championships with Mercury

2005: Janel McCarville (Minnesota) selected by the Charlotte Sting

2006: Seimone Augustus (LSU) selected by the Minnesota Lynx
Won 4 championships with Lynx

2007: Lindsey Harding (Duke) selected by the Phoenix Mercury

2008: Candace Parker (Tennessee) selected by the Los Angeles Sparks
Won 1 championship with the Sparks

2009: Angel McCoughtry (Louisville) selected by the Atlanta Dream

2010: Tina Charles (UConn) selected by the Connecticut Sun

2011: Maya Moore (UConn) selected by the Minnesota Lynx
Won 4 championships with the Lynx

2012: Nneka Ogwumike (Stanford) selected by the Los Angeles Sparks
Won 1 championship with the Sparks

2013: Brittney Griner (Baylor) selected by the Phoenix Mercury
Won 1 championship with the Mercury

2014: Chiney Ogwumike (Stanford) selected by the Connecticut Sun

2015: Jewell Loyd (Notre Dame) selected by the Seattle Storm
Won 2 championships with the Storm

2016: Breanna Stewart (UConn) selected by the Seattle Storm
Won 2 championships with the Storm

2017: Kelsey Plum (Washington) selected by the Atlanta Dream

2018: A’ja Wilson (South Carolina) selected by the Las Vegas Aces
Won 2 championships with the Aces

2019: Jackie Young (Notre Dame) selected by the Las Vegas Ace
Won 2 championships with the Aces

2020: Sabrina Ionescu (Oregon) selected by the New York Liberty
Won 1 championship with the Liberty

2021: Charli Collier (Texas) selected by the Dallas Wings

2022: Rhyne Howard (Kentucky) selected by the Atlanta Dream

2023: Aliyah Boston (South Carolina) selected by the Indiana Fever

2024: Caitlin Clark (Iowa) selected by the Indiana Fever

For players drafted from 1997-2020, top picks combined to yield the franchises that drafted them a total of 33 WNBA championships. In those 23 years, 14 No. 1 picks won a championship with the original fracnchise. It seems like a reasonable bet that Boston and Clark could increase that count, but SB Nation stopped assessing players drafted after 2020, because they haven’t yet hit their primes.

So, statistically speaking, if a WNBA franchise wins the Lottery, there is a very good chance (13/23 or approximately 60% over the first two-ish decades of league history) that the franchise will go on to win a championship with that top pick.

The success of top picks individually expands if you remove the caveat of winning with their original team, too. Once in a while, a No. 1 pick has gone to a different franchise and won there; Kelsey Plum — who was drafted by the Dream but won two chips with the Aces — is one such example. But, overwhelmingly, history has demonstrated that it’s the WNBA franchise that drafted a star that benefits most from the fruits of their accomplishments.

On average, each No. 1 pick has brought in 1.4 WNBA championships to the franchise that drafted them. It’s not a perfectly representative number — players like Maya Moore and Tina Thompson (4 rings each) inflate those figures — and as the number of teams in the league grows, winning a championship will become an even more difficult feat to accomplish.

Still, looking at how previous picks have panned out: it’s not a huge leap to say that the Dallas Wings are probably — at some point — going to win a championship with Paige Bueckers if they do end up drafting her.

What a No. 1 pick can do for a franchise off the court

WNBA championships are the ultimate goal — in recent weeks, nearly every newly hired WNBA coach explicitly professed their intention to win a ring in their introductory press conference.

But, championship or not, the Fever’s 2024 season was a massive success.

Caitlin Clark more than tripled Indiana’s average home attendance; the franchise went from having the second-lowest average attendance in the league (~4,000 fans) to the highest (~17,000).

And, Indiana’s TV viewership numbers were through the roof; 23 WNBA games drew more than 1 million viewers, and Clark played in 20 of them. The Fever had 90% of their games aired nationally in the 2024 season, a remarkable jump from the previous season’s 35% mark. Clark and Co. broke a slew of other viewership records.

The Wings have a ton of room for an attendance leap, too. Dallas had the second-lowest attendance among all WNBA teams in 2024, with College Park Center averaging 5,200 fans per game.

If Bueckers were to head to Dallas, she’d be likely to dramatically increase those numbers, even if the effect is not as extreme as Clark’s.

It’s important to disclaim that Clark is far from your average No. 1 pick — she came into the WNBA as one of the most hyped-up prospects in the history of the sport, and as NCAA Division I basketball’s all-time leading scorer. In four years at Iowa, Clark amassed a following no women’s college player has ever garnered.

Still, she demonstrated what a single star can do. And Bueckers — who has 2 million Instagram followers and is one of the most well-known players in college basketball, male or female — will undeniably provide a massive ratings boost. Bueckers’ marketability and popularity are well-demonstrated; she was the first college athlete to sign a deal with Gatorade, and she already has a multi-year deal with Nike.

Last Sunday, the Dallas Wings rejoiced upon learning they won the Draft Lottery.

“It’s such an energizing day already — what a number one pick does for your fanbase, it energizes your team,” said general manager Curt Miller that night, gushing about how the lottery win aid his search for a new head coach.

And, after assessing how well No. 1 picks have historically panned out, Miller might have even been understating the lottery result’s potential ramifications.